Best and worst-case scenarios for the British teams in the Champions League group stage draw

The 32-team line up for this season’s Champions League group stage is almost complete, with the final three spots up for grabs in Wednesday night’s play-off second legs. 

Once those fixtures – Dinamo Zagreb vs Bodo/Glimt, Trabzonspor vs Copenhagen, PSV vs Rangers – have reached a conclusion, the group stage draw will take place at 5pm BST on Thursday 25 August. 

As always, the clubs will be split into four pots of eight and one team from each pot will go into groups labelled A to H. No two sides from the same country can face each other and no more than two teams from any given nation can play on the same night. 

Pot 1 is made up of the Champions League holders, the Europa League holders, and the champions of the top six association countries based on their UEFA coefficients. Pots 2, 3 and 4 contain the remaining teams, ranked by order of their UEFA ranking.

Sportsmail takes a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for all of the British sides involved…

Manchester City

Best-case scenario: RB Leipzig, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst-case scenario: Barcelona, Inter Milan, Marseille

As Premier League champions, Manchester City are in Pot 1 and therefore avoid many of Europe’s biggest teams such as Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG. 

But with the other three English sides all in Pot 2, it narrows down the options that Pep Guardiola’s team could face – they will definitely meet one of Barcelona, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla or RB Leipzig. 

Barcelona are surely the most daunting of those clubs following their summer spending spree, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Jules Kounde arriving at the Camp Nou. They also have a point to prove after being knocked out of the Champions League group stages last season. 

In terms of UEFA coefficient, RB Leipzig are the lowest ranked side in the pot apart from Tottenham, so the German side – who finished third in City’s group last season – seem to be the best team to get. 

In Pot 3, Inter Milan – who have Romelu Lukaku back in attack – are one to avoid, while Borussia Dortmund have been weakened by Erling Haaland’s departure but will still provide a stern test. Sporting Lisbon appear the most favourable draw as last season was the first time they had made it out of the group stages for 13 years. 

City will fancy their chances against any team in Pot 4, although Marseille are perhaps the most challenging opponent. They finished second in Ligue 1 last season, possess Arkadiusz Milik and Dimitri Payet in attack and have spent over £60million this summer. 

Israeli side Maccabi Haifa, appearing in the group stages for the first time since 2009, would be the best option but also a long away trip. 

Liverpool 

Best-case scenario: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst-case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

With Liverpool in Pot 2, we could have a repeat of last season’s Champions League final in the group stages if they are drawn against Real Madrid. The Reds have failed to win any of their last seven games against Los Blancos, so will not be too keen on facing them again.  

Eintracht Frankfurt are in Pot 1 after winning the Europa League last season so should not be underestimated, but they finished 11th in the Bundesliga and look a little out of place among some of Europe’s heavyweights in their first season in this competition since 1960. That makes them the best option.   

Jurgen Klopp’s former charges Dortmund are one to avoid in Pot 3, along with an Inter Milan side who won at Anfield last season. A meeting with Sporting would favour Liverpool, while Bayer Leverkusen are the lowest-ranked team but would not be able to be drawn in the same group as Frankfurt. 

In Pot 4, the Reds have only won once in six games against Celtic and a first meeting since 2003 would provide an electric atmosphere at both Anfield and Parkhead. That said, Ange Postecoglou’s men are perhaps a team to stay clear of along with Marseille, despite it being a short trip. Maccabi Haifa are the dream ticket again – or Viktoria Plzen. 

Chelsea

Best-case scenario: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst-case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

Chelsea face the same options as Liverpool and will be equally as desperate to avoid clashes with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or PSG. 

Again, Eintracht Frankfurt – who the Blues beat on penalties in the 2019 Europa League semi-final – appears to be the easiest tie in Pot 1, but Thomas Tuchel’s team should fancy their chances against Porto and Ajax too. 

Unlike in the Premier League, loan players can play against their parent club in the Champions League so Chelsea will surely want to avoid Inter Milan in Pot 3 to rule out the risk of Romelu Lukaku scoring against them. A short trip to Lisbon or Leverkusen would suit the Blues fine. 

The west London club won 4-0 home and away last time they faced an Israeli team in the group stages – Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2015 – so will fancy their chances if they get Maccabi Haifa in Pot 4. Conversely, they have lost on their previous two trips to Marseille so that is a tie to avoid. 

Tottenham

Best-case scenario: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst-case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

Tottenham are the lowest-ranked English side and the lowest-ranked team in Pot 2, so may be the ‘best-case scenario’ for many foreign clubs despite their encouraging start to the season. 

Spurs themselves will want Eintracht Frankfurt from Pot 1, but may also fancy a first meeting with Ajax since their dramatic Champions League semi-final against Dutch side in 2019. They have won just once in six meetings against both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich so unsurprisingly they will be keen to avoid those clubs.

Former Tottenham prospect Marcus Edwards now plays for Sporting but is unlikely to cause Antonio Conte’s side too many problems if they are pulled out from Pot 3. A clash with Inter Milan would evoke memories of Gareth Bale’s hat-trick at the San Siro in 2010 but Spurs lost that game and may struggle again against the Nerazzurri.

A hat-trick that did help Spurs to a win was Harry Kane’s treble in a 7-2 thrashing of Maccabi Haifa in Europa League qualifying in 2020, so they would look forward to facing the Israeli outfit again. 

A worst-case scenario meeting with Marseille from Pot 4 would see them come up against ex-Arsenal trio Matteo Guendouzi, Nuno Tavares and Alexis Sanchez. 

Celtic/Rangers

Best-case scenario: Ajax, RB Leipzig, Sporting Lisbon

Worst-case scenario: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter Milan

There is Scottish representation in the group stages for the first time since 2013, with reigning domestic champions Celtic guaranteed a spot and Rangers needing to progress past PSV in the play-off round tonight. They are both in Pot 4 so face a potentially tricky group. 

While Eintracht Frankfurt – who beat Rangers in last season’s Europa League final – are probably the easiest option in Pot 1, we have gone with Ajax as a best-case scenario so that a meeting with RB Leipzig – who the Gers defeated in the semi-finals – from Pot 2 is possible. Sporting Lisbon from Pot 3 would complete a group that would be the easiest to get out of. 

There are all manner of nightmare draws that the two Glasgow clubs could face, but last season’s Champions League finalists Real Madrid and Liverpool, along with an Inter Milan team who have finished first or second in Serie A in the last three years, is surely the worst of the possibilities.