RAY MASSEY: Driverless automobiles? Don’t maintain your breath

Looking ahead to your self-driving automotive? The New Year is often the time for crystal ball-gazing so, as we speed up into 2024, let’s give it a go.

Transport Secretary Mark Harper introduced over the Yuletide break that driverless automobiles can be on our roads by 2026. Legislation to permit it ought to clear Parliament ‘by the top of 2024’, he instructed the BBC, including he’d seen the expertise demonstrated in California.

But do not maintain your breath. We’ve been right here earlier than with the self-driving ‘robo-car’ hype.

Still miles away: Self-driving automobiles stay, for the second, an alluring fantasy

In November 2017, a predecessor, Chris Grayling, introduced with gusto at a serious British Insurers’ convention that the driverless automobiles ‘revolution’ was on its manner, with the primary fully self-driving automobiles to be used on UK roads with us ‘by 2021’.

I’ve adopted this topic for years and pushed and written about a number of analysis automobiles fitted with numerous levels of autonomous expertise, together with from BMW and Mercedes-Benz. It’s wonderful stuff. But the totally self-driving tech — the place it takes you seamlessly to your vacation spot — is all the time ‘simply across the nook’.

But what we’re already seeing is components of self-driving expertise being step by step included into the security methods of latest automobiles, as ‘driver help’. That consists of automated braking methods which spot a hazard the motive force misses, and automatic cruise management and lane help that adapts to automobiles slowing down forward.

‘Self-driving’, if and when allowed, can be on a number of devoted lanes on motorways or in cities, which solely automobiles with important autonomy can use, and it will be rigorously managed.

The Government has invested thousands and thousands, and automotive companies billions, into researching and trialling the expertise. But a self-driving free-for all with fully autonomous automobiles mixing with automobiles pushed by human drivers continues to be many years away.

It’s no surprise; official U.S. security crash information has revealed Tesla’s Autopilot system was concerned in 736 crashes, involving 17 fatalities, since 2019.

Legal, technical and insurance coverage elements are additionally a problem, particularly after some very high-profile crashes.

A self-driving free-for all with fully autonomous automobiles mixing with automobiles pushed by human drivers continues to be many years away

That’s all a far cry from once I bear in mind reporting on then transport minister Claire Perry repeatedly telling us in 2014 and 2015 how busy mums would quickly be capable of pack their kids right into a driverless automotive and wave them off to highschool as a substitute of doing the day by day run themselves. Still ready.

Not to say the danger of criminals and terrorists hacking into self-driving automobiles for their very own nefarious deeds. That’s already been a plotline in Hollywood motion pictures.

Language and wording can be vital. Legislation launched into Parliament lately prevents firms from deceptive the general public concerning the ‘self-driving’ functionality of their automobiles. So it truly is time for a actuality examine.

There are formally six ranges of autonomous driving – from 0 to five. Level 2 controls the pace and course of the automotive permitting the motive force to take their arms off the steering briefly, offered they monitor the street consistently and are able to take over. 

Level 3 removes the necessity for the motive force to maintain their eyes on the street always however they have to be able to resume management if the system requests. Level 5 arms complete management to the automotive always.

It’s clearly again to the longer term with self-driving automobiles.

New automotive gross sales set for prime 

New automotive gross sales will hit a five-year excessive in 2024, helped by purchaser reductions, predicts on-line vendor Auto Trader.

It forecasts 1.97 million new automobiles can be bought subsequent yr — a 4 per cent rise on the 1.89 million anticipated by the shut of 2023 and the best since 2019, when round 2.3 million have been bought. But it is nonetheless 15 per cent down on pre-pandemic 2019 ranges, it says.

In the quick lane: Biggest vendor to this point this yr is the brand new Ford Puma

Auto Trader additionally predicts 7.24 m used automotive gross sales in 2024 — up 70,000 on the 7.17 m estimated for 2023 — and the best since 2021 ‘when post-Covid market disruption was at its top’, regardless of persevering with shortages of used inventory. Biggest vendor to this point this yr is the brand new Ford Puma.

The Zero-Emissions Vehicle mandate, requiring 22 per cent of all new automotive gross sales in 2024 to be zero emissions, will increase strain for reductions, says Auto Trader.

Record breakdowns predicted for January 

Don’t let your New Year begin ‘flat’. That’s the warning from the RAC, which fears that subsequent Tuesday, January 2, might be its busiest breakdown day of 2024.

With a file 12,000 breakdowns predicted — greater than 1 / 4 (28 per cent) can be brought on by flat batteries.

Testing time: With a file 12,000 breakdowns predicted – greater than 1 / 4 can be brought on by flat batteries

More automotive batteries fail on the primary working day of the brand new yr than another time as a result of many automobiles have been sitting idle over the lengthy Christmas break.

Top tricks to keep away from this occurring to you embrace:

• Take your automobile for a drive (not less than quarter-hour) earlier than you want it with a view to get your battery properly charged.
• Ensure every part is switched off when parked. 
• Get your battery examined, significantly whether it is greater than 4 years previous.