Record variety of extra deaths amid NHS strikes

Britain skilled a report variety of extra deaths final yr amid repeated NHS strikes and the continued price of the Covid pandemic.

Nearly 53,000 extra individuals died in 2023 than regular – the very best determine recorded in a non-pandemic yr since the Second World War, Telegraph evaluation exhibits.

Doctors went on strike for 38 days final yr, and consultants worry the disruption contributed to the excessive variety of extra deaths.

On Wednesday, junior medical doctors begin the longest strike within the historical past of the well being service. Officials have mentioned the walkout will imply “the most difficult start to the year the NHS has ever faced”.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at University of Oxford, instructed the Telegraph that sufferers had been “abandoned to look after themselves” whereas medical doctors and the Government had been “at a standoff”.

He mentioned: “Patients are being rung up with diagnoses for cancer over the phone, left abandoned to look after themselves while the strikes are worked through, and it’s patients that are ultimately suffering.”

NHS medical director Professor Sir Stephen Powis mentioned the following strike, lasting six days, will trigger a “serious impact in the weeks after” as companies attempt to recuperate and cope with additional demand.

Experts have additionally mentioned that the impression of the pandemic, lockdowns, and the ensuing lengthy ready lists have all contributed to extra deaths.

The British Medical Association (BMA), the medical doctors’ union, has additionally been warned by NHS chiefs that the sufferers on the best threat of hurt this week, primarily based on an evaluation of earlier strikes, had been these with fast-progressing cancers, time-critical inductions and pressing “elective” C-sections, and corneal transplant surgical procedure.

Analysis by The Telegraph of Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures for England, Wales and Scotland confirmed that 52,698 extra deaths than would have been anticipated had occurred by Dec 8 final yr, primarily based on a five-year common of deaths earlier than Covid.

Official ONS evaluation to calculate the five-year common excludes 2020 however consists of 2021, which was nonetheless closely impacted by Covid. The complete variety of deaths final yr was 595,789.

It means there have been greater than 1,000 extra deaths every week, surpassing final yr’s complete of fifty,200 and the height of 51,200 throughout the 1951 flu epidemic. It is the very best determine since 1940, earlier than the NHS existed, when there have been about 96,000 additional deaths.

During the pandemic, 82,000 and 60,000 additional deaths occurred in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Prof Heneghan mentioned: “We’re at a tipping point in the NHS. People are dying on the waiting list, those who require emergency care are not being sought and seen quickly enough, and social care is almost non-existent.”

He mentioned many GPs had not labored for seven of the final 10 days, with 1 / 4 of their quantity being made up of junior medical doctors.

Prof Heneghan mentioned most cancers sufferers usually seen in a clinic and beginning remedy had been being known as by overstretched consultants as an alternative of seen in individual, and every thing was being pushed again due to strikes.

“Consultants are covering the junior doctors’ work and so there is a displacement and basic care is going out of the window,” he added. “I would implore at this time of year that both sides need to just get around the table and call this strike off.

“Both sides seem to be at a standoff where they’re almost holding a gun to each other’s head. This should now be a job for the Prime Minister to act, because it is patients that will suffer – and suffer in many different ways. It is completely unacceptable to play with people’s lives in this way.”

Dr Tim Cooksley, a former president of the Society of Acute Medicine, mentioned the strikes “reflect the stress and pressure and frustration that [staff] can’t deliver the care they want”. He added: “Industrial action increases pressure on services, and this can lead to adverse effects and harm for patients.”

Prof Karol Sikora, a number one most cancers specialist, warned that Britain remains to be seeing a knock-on impression from Covid, including: “A tunnel vision focus on one virus led to millions and millions of patients suffering delays in diagnosis and treatment for every single aspect of healthcare.

“Lockdowns, and the associated delays, are undoubtedly the driving factor behind these horrific statistics. In cancer alone, I estimate that there will be significantly more life years lost to unnecessary delays than the virus sadly took.”

Dr Adrian Boyle, the president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, mentioned it was “vital” to do not forget that every loss of life “represents an individual person with a family and loved ones” and that it was “heartbreaking to think that any one could have been avoided”.

“The NHS has had to deal with a series of significant challenges in the past 12 months. Last winter was the most difficult the service has ever experienced,” he added, citing “excessively long waits” throughout all companies, with “all of this in addition to a series of strikes”.

He mentioned: “We cannot definitively say that all – or any – of these issues have contributed to the rise in excess deaths, but what they do reflect is a health system that is not functioning properly. Increasingly, it is the whole system that is in need of intensive care to ensure this shocking figure does not rise again next year.”

Britain’s extra mortality was worse than another developed nation as of mid-October 2023, when comparable worldwide knowledge was obtainable.

The loss of life fee of 8.6 per cent above the anticipated quantity for the yr considerably outpaced Israel, the following worst nation, with 5.5 per cent.

Excess deaths in Britain had been round 4 occasions greater than Germany’s 2.2 per cent. New Zealand had 1.4 per cent extra deaths than regular, whereas France had 1.7 per cent fewer than anticipated, a separate Telegraph evaluation of the World Mortality Dataset revealed.

Data for Australia and the United States was solely obtainable up till mid-August, when extra deaths had been at 8.4 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. The UK’s determine at the moment was 9.0 per cent.

Junior medical doctors have been asking for a 35 per cent pay rise since they first walked out final March. The NHS backlog has continued to develop since, rising to a excessive of seven.8 million earlier than dropping barely final month.

Data from the Office for Health Disparities exhibits that extra deaths are disproportionately affecting middle-aged individuals between 50 and 64, the place they’re 13.5 per cent greater than anticipated, in addition to the under-25s – 11.8 per cent greater.

The knowledge additionally present individuals dying extra usually than they need to from cardiac and heart-related points, respiratory infections and diabetes, amongst different situations. 

Excess deaths from coronary heart failure are up 16 per cent within the final yr. Cardiac and respiratory care have been among the many worst hit specialities by NHS delays.

Junior medical doctors are scheduled to stroll out at 7am on Jan 3 and won’t return to work till 7am on Jan 9.

Prof Powis mentioned: “This January could be one of the most difficult starts to the year the NHS has ever faced.

“Six consecutive days of industrial action comes at one of our busiest periods,” he added. “Our colleagues across the health service are doing their very best for patients every day with extensive preparations in place, but there’s no doubt they are starting 2024 on the back foot – not only will action impact next week, it will continue to have a serious impact in the weeks after, as we recover services and deal with additional demand.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman mentioned: “We urge the BMA junior doctors’ committee to call off their strikes and come back to the negotiating table so we can find a fair and reasonable solution, and so we can all get back to focusing on patients and their care.

“We know how distressing it is for patients who have had appointments and procedures cancelled, and we have provided £800 million to ensure patients continue to receive the highest quality care this winter and ease pressure on hospitals impacted by industrial action.

“NHS staff are working hard to prioritise resources to protect emergency treatment, critical care, neonatal care, maternity, and trauma, and to ensure we prioritise patients who have waited the longest for elective care and cancer surgery.”

The BMA was contacted for remark.