‘Greenland climate system’ means ‘large snow occasions’ will blast UK in January

Snow has been falling this week and Brits must be bracing for rather more of the white stuff, in line with a number one climate forecaster.

Exacta Weather‘s James Madden says it’s turning into “irrefutably clear that Britain will now be thrown into the freezer”, with “high risk snow events across large parts of the country” probably from the center of this month.

Madden places this all the way down to sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in addition to a “massive Greenland blocking pattern” that’s beginning to present up in projections.

READ MORE: UK snow will final ‘a number of weeks’ with wintry showers predicted as late as April

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Despite its identify, SSW causes temperatures within the UK to drop considerably. Some current deep freezes and main snow occasions, together with 2018’s Beast from the East, got here because of SSW.

“Warming” refers to what occurs within the stratosphere some 50km up within the sky. When temperatures there spike, it has a knock on impact down right here.

The Met Office explains: “Every yr in winter, robust westerly winds circle across the pole excessive up within the stratosphere. This is known as the stratospheric polar vortex and it circulates round chilly air excessive over the Arctic.

“In some years, the winds in the polar vortex temporarily weaken, or even reverse to flow from east to west. The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50­°C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming.

“As the chilly air from excessive up within the stratosphere disperses, it could actually have an effect on the form of the jet stream because the chilly air sinks from the stratosphere into the troposphere. It is this transformation within the jet stream that causes our climate to alter.”

The change in the jet stream can cause it to “snake”, creating an area of what is called “blocking excessive stress”. This prevents different climate programs shifting previous it. In flip, it means the UK experiences prolonged durations of low temperatures – and in some circumstances the drop results in huge downpours of snow.

In its forecast for January 13 to 22, the Met Office warns temperatures are “likely to turn colder” with a “a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north”. It provides there’s additionally a danger of some “snow across some southern areas for a time”.

For January 23 to February 6, it states: “There is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow.”

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