ANDREW NEIL: REAL purpose Haley staggers on after Trump’s SC victory

And then there was none. Only just a few months in the past round a dozen hopefuls — no-hopers is perhaps a extra correct description — had been difficult Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.

After early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire the sphere was dramatically whittled down, leaving just one challenger nonetheless standing in Saturday’s South Carolina main — Nikki Haley.

She’s proved to be nearly as a lot of a no-hoper as the remainder of them, shedding by 20 factors (60% to 40%) — and in her residence state too, the place she was a fairly in style governor for six years.

Even candidates who ultimately lose often win their residence states, as Senator Ted Cruz (Texas) and Governor John Kasich (Ohio) did towards Trump within the 2016 race for the Republican nomination.

But not Haley.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio (whom Haley supported) misplaced his state by 19 factors to Trump in 2016 (about the identical margin of defeat as Haley). That ended his presidential bid, as her personal yard has Haley’s.

It will most likely be mid-March earlier than Trump has chalked up a majority of the delegates going to the Republican conference in Milwaukee in July. But to all intents and functions he already has the nomination within the bag, as certain as evening follows day. After South Carolina, Haley has no potential path to victory.

Thus is America heading for the Donald Trump v Joe Biden re-match that many of the nation would not need.

True, Haley is battling on, campaigning in Michigan (main on Tuesday) inside hours of happening to defeat in her residence state and with sufficient funds to mount credible campaigns within the quite a few states up for grabs on Super Tuesday (March fifth). Though to what goal shouldn’t be clear.

She has no hope of successful a single state or territory among the many 21 in rivalry over the subsequent 10 days.

South Carolina was projected for Trump inside minutes of the polls closing. When Haley spoke from her Charleston HQ just a few hours later she was much less defiant than in New Hampshire when, removed from giving a concession speech, she talked as if her defeat had been a victory, irritating Trump to no finish within the course of.

Now she was extra subdued, the bravado gone, extra cussed than over-confident.

She claimed she’d ‘preserve combating’ to provide folks ‘a selection’, repeating her marketing campaign mantra that Trump cannot beat President Biden come the final election in November.

But Republicans have already made their selection and the Trump core now accountable for the get together disagrees along with her: they consider he can and can beat Biden.

Some speculate that her persevering with assaults on Trump and Biden are in preparation for a Third Party candidacy for president beneath, maybe, the ‘No Labels’ umbrella.

Yet that’s no path to the White House for her and it could destroy her eternally within the Republican Party, one thing she’s spent years cultivating.

I very a lot doubt she is going to select to go down that rocky street.

Others see her as being a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ fallback, placing herself in pole place ought to one thing unexpected — maybe a prison conviction and jail time — go severely mistaken for Trump.

But she already enjoys that standing and staying within the main race solely annoys even non-MAGA Republican strategists who suppose the get together ought to now be concentrating on the best way to beat Biden, not nonetheless squabbling amongst itself. After all, Republicans do not simply need the White House. They need to take the Senate and develop their House majority too.

My guess is that she sees herself because the ‘I advised you so’ candidate.

I’m assured she actually does consider Trump cannot beat Biden and when (as she thinks) he loses in November, she will likely be in a pivotal place to remold a post-Trump Republican Party in her extra mainstream picture, making her the pure chief to guide the Republicans into the 2028 presidential election when, after eight years of Democratic rule, ‘time for a change’ will likely be a strong marketing campaign slogan.

That’s all potential, although it is by no means in style with the get together devoted to base a method by yourself facet happening to defeat.

It’s additionally unclear the Republican Party will likely be any much less ‘MAGA’ with out Trump. The Trumpers at the moment are accountable for the get together and won’t simply relinquish their grip even when Trump has departed the stage.

Yet Trump shouldn’t be fairly the political juggernaut his main victories point out — or his core help claims. His 20-point victory was lower than his 30-point lead within the ultimate polls; and, as Haley mentioned Saturday evening, ‘40% [her share of the South Carolina vote] shouldn’t be some tiny group’.

Though it was bolstered by independents and Democrats (Palmetto State voters, no matter get together affiliation, can forged a poll in both the Republican or Democratic primaries), there’s however a transparent Republican rump that doesn’t need Trump. Some polls have discovered that round 20% of GOP voters say they won’t vote for him.

Trump claimed in his South Carolina victory speech, which had not one of the venom of his post-New Hampshire remarks during which he ungraciously attacked Haley, that he had ‘by no means seen the Republican Party extra unified’.

That is unfaithful.

His cult following actually controls the grassroots and even the get together institution now largely bows earlier than him (Haley could have been governor of South Carolina however all of the native get together bigwigs backed Trump). However, there’s clearly a minority of Republicans who resent Trump’s domination.

Of course they may fall in line as the final election approaches, as recalcitrant get together loyalists typically do, and the prospect of beating Biden turns into the precedence.

But it could take solely about 5% of reluctant Republicans to remain at residence or vote Democrat within the swing states and Trump may lose once more to Biden.

Trump’s downside is that occasions and actions which consolidate his base solely additional alienate these moderates and independents he wants for victory in November.

When courts superb him $450m for exaggerating his web price to clinch financial institution loans to finance property offers or order him to pay $83m for defaming a girl who accused him of rape, the cult sees this as additional proof of a deep-state conspiracy on the coronary heart of the judicial system to do him down.

Moderate Republicans and independents surprise aloud if such a person ought to be allowed again into the Oval Office.

When Trump says he would not thoughts Russia invading NATO allies not spending sufficient on protection or assaults Haley’s husband for not being on the marketing campaign path along with her (he is on army service in Africa), the core sees a straight-shooter who’s not afraid to say issues different politicians would not dare.

Others usually tend to conclude this isn’t a person match to be commander in chief.

When Trump claims the rationale black voters are drawn to him is as a result of he has a jail mugshot and faces 91 prison costs, the cult chuckles.

The remainder of the nation simply shakes its head in disgust and astonishment at what it reveals of Trump’s picture of America’s black inhabitants.

Trump is not going to change. He will proceed to please his followers and appall even these whose votes he must return to the White House. A prison conviction between now and November may serve to provoke the bottom nevertheless it may very well be deadly for his hopes of wooing extra reasonable voters.

But Donald Trump is a fortunate man.

If he was up towards any mainstream Democrat aside from Joe Biden he would probably be a loser come November, as he was in 2020 and within the 2022 midterms (and in 2018 too).

Against Biden, Trump has the makings of a winner, irrespective of how a lot ugly baggage is strewn round him.