Supercomputer calculates which Premier League staff has hardest run-in

With most groups solely having 10 video games left within the 2023-24 Premier League season, each single aspect nonetheless has one thing to combat for, with the battles on the high and backside of the desk balancing delicately on a knife-edge. 

Arsenal presently paved the way on the high of the Premier League desk, however solely by advantage of a superior purpose distinction to Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola‘s Manchester City are just one level again from each. 

Similarly, Luton’s late equaliser at house to Nottingham Forest on Saturday means they’re inside three factors of each the Tricky Trees and Everton within the battle to beat the drop on the foot of the standings. 

And as if that wasn’t sufficient, Tottenham and Aston Villa are separated by solely two factors within the battle for fourth place, whereas the following six groups are cut up by 10 factors as they race to qualify for both the Europa League or Conference League. 

There remains to be a lot to play for throughout the board, so the ultimate 10 video games may have a lot driving on them, however who faces the hardest combat on the tail finish of the marketing campaign? Here Mail Sport presents the findings from Opta’s supercomputer.  

The supercomputer has attributed each staff a score between 0-100 to then assign a problem worth to every aspect in a strategy to quantify how arduous an opponent they could be, e.g. Manchester City can be a lot nearer to 100 than Burnley as they’re – most likely – one of the best staff on the planet. 

The common problem score from each staff in a membership’s remaining run of fixtures is then taken, with the numbers then ranked to indicate who faces the trickiest spell of video games on paper.  

In phrases of the title race, it might seem that Arsenal are trying on the steeper problem compared to fellow suitors for the crown City and Liverpool. 

The Gunners have clashes with Chelsea (H), Man City (A), Aston Villa (H), Tottenham (A) and Man United (A) nonetheless to return earlier than ending the season at house to a probably relegation-threatened Everton to shut off the marketing campaign. Those video games earn them a mean problem score of 88.5 of a possible 100 – the fifth-highest total. 

Pep Guardiola’s aspect in the meantime are in twelfth, with a mean problem of 87.3 due to video games in opposition to Arsenal (H), Villa (H) and Spurs (A), with Liverpool down in 14th (86.6) and can tackle United (A), Spurs (H) and Villa (A) earlier than the top of the season. 

While any sport in England’s top-flight can see upsets thrown up and shock outcomes, it might on paper seem that Liverpool are in one of the best place heading into the ultimate straights. 

Just behind these three is an equally fierce combat for the highest 4, and it seems as if Aston Villa would do very properly to carry onto their factors benefit come the top of the marketing campaign. 

Unai Emery’s aspect have the second-hardest total run-in based on the numbers, with journeys to City and Arsenal and residential clashes with Chelsea and Liverpool in addition to a go to to the Amex to tackle Brighton. 

Tottenham do nonetheless have journeys to Newcastle and Liverpool however may have house benefit within the north London derby in opposition to Arsenal and City, whereas United’s problem score is the bottom of the three seeking to make the highest 4. 

Chelsea and Tottenham had their assembly postponed late final month month because of the Carabao Cup remaining – nevertheless Opta haven’t included this sport within the calculations, though it’s one other alternative for each side to select up factors. 

The Blues truly come off fairly properly from the rankings, in addition to the Magpies, with each under-performers for 2023-24 taking a look at extra straight-forward conclusions to making an attempt campaigns. 

Chelsea are ranked simply 18th, their sternest assessments Arsenal (A), United (H) and journeys to Brighton and Villa, whereas Newcastle are in nineteenth with clashes in opposition to Tottenham (H), Man United (A) and Brighton (H). 

Both groups additionally face matches with Sheffield United and Burnley of their remaining 10, the 2 groups stranded on the foot of the desk, and due to this fact probably the simpler video games of the entire marketing campaign.  

Away from the title race and battle for Champions League qualification, the staff that truly has the toughest fixtures is Brighton, who’ve fallen a way in need of their super exploits final time period. 

The Seagulls’ final 10 video games have been given a score of 89.9 as they are going to tackle City (H), Liverpool (A) and Arsenal (H) of their subsequent 4 video games alone, earlier than clashes with Chelsea (H), Villa (H), Newcastle (A) and United (H) of their remaining 5. 

But not far behind them are Luton, who look to have a most unlikely combat to beat the drop on their palms with a mean problem score of 88.4 placing them simply behind the Gunners. 

Burnley and Sheffield United would each must spring unbelievable shock comebacks to be able to be in with a shout of survival, regardless of their run-ins rating fifteenth and eleventh respectively, and are presently 5 and eight factors adrift of even Luton. 

The Hatters have fights with relegation rivals Forest – a sport they drew on Saturday with the info printed earlier than that sport – and Everton (H) and Brentford (H) in addition to conferences with Spurs, City and Arsenal all on the street. 

Forest and Everton each have a lot simpler run-ins (seventeenth and sixteenth respectively), whereas Brentford have the simplest of all (twentieth) with a score of simply 85.2 regardless of dates with United (H), Brighton (H), Villa (A) and Newcastle (H). 

Crystal Palace are presently seven away from Luton, however do have the hardest run-in of any aspect within the backside half of the league, and with journeys to Newcastle, Man City, Aston Villa and Man United – on high of the go to of Liverpool – may see them drawn ever nearer to that dog-fight beneath them.   

As such, with a fiendish run-in themselves and their rivals getting off comparatively simply, issues are starting to look even tighter for the Hatters. 

There is the small matter of a possible factors deduction hanging over Forest’s head which might, after all, play into Luton’s palms, however there isn’t a certainty that that will even come into play, and even be carried out earlier than the top of the season.