Tories heading in the right direction for 1997-style wipeout as ballot predicts Labour landslide

The Tories are heading in the right direction for a 1997-style election wipeout, with their numbers diminished to only 155 seats, a brand new mega-poll reveals.

Seat-by-seat evaluation by YouGov suggests Labour would sweep to energy with 403 seats, handing Keir Starmer a large majority of 154. This is greater than double the bulk Boris Johnson gained in 2019.

The survey of greater than 18,000 individuals predicts Labour would achieve 201 seats in comparison with 2019, taking the occasion inside attain of the landslide Tony Blair gained in 1997, the place Labour took 418 out of the 659 seats out there.

Meanwhile, the ballot predicts Rishi Sunak would lose 210 MPs, placing the Conservatives heading in the right direction for a worse defeat than Sir John Major suffered by the hands of New Labour.

Major Tory figures who would lose their seats if our new MRP results came to pass include Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Michelle Donelan, David TC Davies, Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

The MRP ballot by YouGov predicted a Labour landslide on the subsequent election

A string of high Tories would lose their seats together with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, and Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader. Ex-Cabinet Minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Conservative chief Sir Ian Duncan Smith are additionally in danger.

Ms Mordaunt has been touted as a doable successor to Mr Sunak, however her vulnerability will make her a dangerous decide.

Meanwhile, Labour would change into the most important occasion in Scotland, on 28 seats to the SNP’s 19. It would mark a shocking reversal of fortunes for Labour, which was all however worn out north of the border in 2015.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to take 49 seats – a rise of two since January, up by two seats based mostly on our January mannequin, to 49, persevering with to set the trail for a big parliamentary comeback with none vital modifications to its nationwide vote share.

But in dangerous information for Nigel Farage, Reform UK is ready to return second in 36 seats – however win none. In the seats the place Reform has its highest vote share – Barnsley North and Hartlepool – the 27% of the vote is twenty factors behind Labour, who’re the projected winners. There are not any constituencies the place Reform are inside ten factors of the successful occasion.

The findings are prone to reignite Tory warfare as panicking MPs flip their fireplace on Mr Sunak for failing to revive occasion fortunes.

:: The mannequin is predicated on vote intention knowledge collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from 7-27 March.