Jaw-dropping ballot places Reform simply 3 factors behind Tories on native election day
Support for the Tories has dropped to lower than it was under Liz Truss – as it crawls just three points ahead of Reform UK.
In a blow to Rishi Sunak on local elections day, dire polling shows the Conservatives are expected to get just 18% of the vote – lower than the 19% it sank to under ex-PM Ms Truss. The last time YouGov recorded a lower vote share for the Tories was in the tumult around the 2019 European Parliament elections under Theresa May.
The polling puts Labour 26 points ahead on 44 points, while the Tories are just three points in front of Reform UK, the former Brexit Party, which is on 15 points. The Lib Dems are on 10% (+1) and the Greens are on 8% (+1).
Mr Sunak is braced for a slew of defeats in Thursday’s local elections and the Blackpoll South by-election. Conservatives will be anxiously watching the share of votes Reform UK receive, amid fears the Nigel Farage-linked party could eat into the Tory vote in dozens of seats.
The PM could face a rebellion if his defeat is sizeable, especially if he loses key Tory mayoral battles. There have been suggestions backbench Tories could challenge his leadership, but senior Government figures including Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt have rushed to his defence.
According to YouGov, only 43% of those who backed the Tories at the 2019 general election currently say they intend to do so again at the next general election. Some 31% of over-65s, often considered the most likely demographic to use their franchise, intend to vote for the Conservatives.
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Tory support among leave voters has also dropped, the polling firm says, leaving them fractionally behind Labour’s 28% of Brexit backers, at 27%. Reform UK are picking up the most voters from this group, at 32%.
Keir Starmer, meanwhile, leads in polling on who would make the best PM, with 34% choosing the Labour leader. Mr Sunak is at 18%, his joint-lowest score, having achieved the same several times since last year.
:: YouGov polled 2,010 GB adults between April 30 and May 1 2024.
