Moment of fact for Rishi Sunak as voting begins in native elections

Rishi Sunak is braced for a moment of truth today as voters deliver their verdict in crucial local elections. 

Polling stations are open with Tories fearing they could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending.

As rebels prepare a fresh coup bid, the PM is hoping that two mayors – Ben Houchen in Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Mids – can hold on to give him positive news to trumpet. 

But the bleak wider picture was underlined today with a Westminster poll suggesting Labour has a massive 26 point lead, with the Tories on 18 per cent – just three points ahead of Reform UK. 

Most of the council seats up for re-election were last contested in 2021, at the peak of Boris Johnson‘s popularity as the Covid-19 vaccine was rolled out.

A total of 11 mayoral contests are also taking place, including for the London mayoralty where Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term.

Polls have give Mr Khan a significant lead over against Tory challenger Susan Hall despite backlash on crime and policing issues – although some believe the final result might be closer.

Labour is widely expected to win the Blackpool South Westminster by-election, which also taking place.

Although some council results and the by-election will declare in the early hours of the morning, most of the outcomes will not emerge until tomorrow and Saturday. 

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tried to manage expectations last night, insisting governments can get ‘punished’ in local votes.

He told Sky News’ Politics Hub: ‘Tony Blair easily lost those amounts of councillors. And, you know, David Cameron lost hundreds of councillors in the run up to the 2015 general election.

‘So, you know, we are expecting to see significant losses. That often happens in local elections.

‘But what we say to people is, look, this may be a moment when you want to express a view about the national picture but actually the local services you depend on will be decided by how you vote.’

Keir Starmer said Labour is ‘hopeful’ it will win the West Midlands contest in an interview with Sky News.

Wins for both Mr Street and Mr Houchen would offer the Tories a ray of light in what forecasts suggest could be a dismal set of results.

But experts warned the metro mayor races would be the ‘least reliable indicator’ of what could happen at a general election.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told an Institute for Government event yesterday that the Conservative Party was emphasising the two contests because they can ‘cover whatever disasters happen elsewhere’.

‘Because of the personal votes of these two, (these contests are) going to be the least reliable indicator,’ he said.

‘Equally, conversely here in London, Sadiq Khan will not do as well as the Labour Party would do in a general election because Sadiq has a negative personal vote. But this city is now so strong Labour, he’s going to win anyway,’ he said.

In a final message before polling stations open, Sir Keir said: ‘Britain is, despite everything this Tory government has thrown at it, a great country.

‘Its people, businesses, and communities continue to come together in the face of adversity. It is a strong nation of pride and potential, with boundless ambition for its family and its community.

‘But it needs a government to match that ambition, and with a plan to unlock it. Today, you have a chance to vote for that change, and pass a verdict on fourteen years of decline. You can start to rebuild our country and take your community in a different direction.’

The Liberal Democrats, who have focused campaigning efforts in traditional Conservative areas, said polling day would be a moment for the Prime Minister to ‘face the music’.

Sir Ed Davey said the results would be a ‘damning verdict on record waiting lists, sewage destroying rivers, and the worst cost of living crisis in a generation’.

‘The country knows the buck stops at the door of Downing Street,’ he said.