Tories activate Rishi after disastrous evening of native elections

Rishi Sunak is facing mounting Tory unrest today after a disastrous election night saw the party put to the sword in the Blackpool South by-election – and suffering a bloodbath on councils.

The PM is hunkering down for a grim day as results continue to flow in, with experts warning the Conservatives are on track for their worst showing in 40 years. 

Labour’s Chris Webb secured a massive 26 per cent swing in Blackpool South to become the newest MP in the Commons – and in a particularly alarming sign the Tory candidate barely managed to push Reform into third place, by just 117 votes. Visiting the constituency this morning flanked by Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer said voters wanted to ‘turn the page’ on the government.   

It was the seventh parliamentary seat the Tories have lost in a by-election since Mr Sunak became PM in October 2022 – underlining that Sir Keir looks to be on track for Downing Street.

As English councils started to declare, Labour also claimed a ‘truly historic result’ to take Rushmoor – the home of the British Army – from the Tories and end nearly a quarter-of-a century of Conservative control.

Sir Keir also saw wins in Hartlepool and made other gains in key general election battlegrounds Thurrock and Redditch as they enjoyed early success.

The Tories lost control of North East Lincolnshire as Mr Sunak witnessed a dire set of results begin to unfold.

In a bright spot, the party has managed to hold on to control of Harlow – which local MP Robert Halfon described as ‘the biggest comeback since Lazarus’. 

Labour also suffered woes of their own in Oldham, where the party lost overall control after independents picked up seats in an apparent backlash over the Gaza war.  

However, polling guru Professor John Curtice said the Tories could be on track to lose 500 councillors and critics are already stepping up calls for Mr Sunak to go. 

Despite pleas from ministers to wait for the full picture to emerge, MPs warned that the PM cannot have a ‘bunker mentality’ and ‘there’s no such thing really as a safe Tory seat anymore’.

Mr Sunak’s hopes now hang on the outcome of mayoral elections, which will start being declared later. 

Following the declaration of the Blackpool South result just before 5am, Sir Keir reiterated his demand for Mr Sunak to call a general election.

The Labour leader said: ‘This seismic win in Blackpool South is the most important result today.

‘This is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives directly, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.

‘The swing towards the Labour Party in Blackpool South is truly historic and shows that we are firmly back in the service of working people. 

He added: ‘The message to Rishi Sunak is clear. It’s time for change, it’s time for a general election.’

Mr Webb scooped 10,825 votes to secure a 7,607-vote majority. The Tories won 3,218 votes, just 117 votes ahead of third-placed Reform UK.

The 26.33 per cent swing was the third biggest from the Conservatives to Labour at a by-election since the Second World War. 

The Tories said the Blackpool South by-election was ‘always going to be difficult’ given the ‘specific circumstances’ surrounding former MP Scott Benton.

A party spokesman said: ‘This was a tough fight and David Jones was an excellent candidate who campaigned hard for every single vote.

‘This was always going to be difficult election given the specific circumstances related to the previous incumbent.

‘What has been clear is that a vote for Reform is a vote for Sir Keir Starmer – taking us right back to square one.’

The Blackpool South outcome added to a night of turmoil for the Conservatives, as they also suffered dismal results in local elections across the country.

Labour are boasting of being ‘on track’ for power at Westminster after making gains in key council contests.

In his victory speech, Mr Webb said: ‘People no longer trust the Conservatives. Prime Minister: do the decent thing, admit you’ve failed and call a general election.’

The Blackpool South contest was prompted by the resignation of former Tory MP Scott Benton from the House of Commons after he was caught up in a lobbying sting.

The Conservatives won the seat at the 2019 general election, with Mr Benton as the party’s candidate, with a more than 3,500-vote majority. 

Tory deputy chair Angela Richardson told the BBC: ‘The result was not unexpected. I think, given the circumstances that caused the by-election in the first place, it was always going to be difficult for the Conservatives.’

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the Tories could be on course to lose 500 councillors in ‘one of the worst, if not the worst’ performances by the party in 40 years.

‘So far they are basically losing a half of the seats they are trying to defend. If that continues they may end up losing 500 or so seats, which is the thing they were meant to avoid,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today.

‘Early days yet, but where we have got the detailed voting numbers, it looks as though the Conservative vote is a wee bit down on where it was last year.

‘We are probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years.’

Elections expert Michael Thrasher told Sky News that the swing to Labour in Blackpool was ‘more or less off the scale’.   

As well as the Tory-Labour fight, the performance of insurgent outfit Reform was also being keenly scrutinised throughout the night of election results.

Reform beat the Tories in 16 out of the 25 seats being contests on Sunderland council, with leader Richard Tice crowing they were ‘becoming the real opposition to Labour in Red Wall areas’.

The results from the 107 local authorities in England who held elections on Thursday could yet decide Mr Sunak’s ‘s political fate.

The PM is also braced for further dire results from mayoral contests, which will start to be declared in the coming hours.

Tory MP Paul Scully said he did not believe the leader should change, but warned of a ‘bunker mentality’ in No10.

‘Crisis management is almost a day to day job of the government,’ he told LBC. ‘We are not speaking to people. We need to reach out.’ 

Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng told LBC: ‘All of our seats are under threat. There’s no such thing really as a safe Tory seat anymore.’ 

Veteran Tory aide Tim Montgomerie, who has been highly critical of Mr Sunak, told the BBC: ‘Personally I think the results are so bad… I just don’t think he is connected with the voters.

‘I think he should go.’

Labour’s most impressive victory of the night so far came in Rushmoor.

Sir Keir’s party boasted of now being in charge of the ‘home of the British Army’ in a nod to the Hampshire authority’s links to the military.

They taunted Mr Sunak that it was ‘time for a general election’ in the wake of the result.

Labour won nine out of 13 seats up for grabs on Rushmoor Borough Council, with the Tories winning three and the Liberal Democrats one.

It gave Sir Keir’s party a majority on the council as the Tories ceded control after 24 years in charge.

The council includes Aldershot, known as the home of the British Army, and Labour was keen to highlight that link as proof that the party had changed since Jeremy Corbyn’s time as leader.

A party spokesperson said: ‘This is a truly historic result.

‘Rushmoor – the home of the British Army – has never had a majority Labour council before, and has been run by the Tories for the last 24 years.

‘This result demonstrates just how much the Labour Party has changed and people in Rushmoor know that only Labour can deliver the change they want to see.

‘A Labour gain for Rushmoor is a result Rishi Sunak cannot ignore. It’s time for a general election.’

In another eye-catching victory for Labour, the party won control of Thurrock after starting the night as the second biggest party behind the Tories.

The Essex council, which had recently moved to no overall control because of defections, is in a strong Brexit-supporting part of the country.

It has also been among those local authorities in dire financial straits, with council tax having been hiked by an eye-watering 8 per cent last month.

Thurrock was effectively declared bankrupt in 2022 following a failed investment spree.

Labour hailed their victory in a key parliamentary battleground, with a party spokesperson saying: ‘This is exactly the kind of place we need to be winning to gain a majority in a general election.

‘The people of Thurrock have sent the Conservatives a message that they want change.’

Labour won nine of the 12 seats up for grabs in Hartlepool to gain control of the council, with independents winning two and the Conservatives one.

Hartlepool has a symbolic importance for Sir Keir after Labour lost the parliamentary by-election there in 2021.

A party spokesperson said: ‘Winning back Hartlepool council is a groundbreaking moment after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021.

‘Keir Starmer pledged to change the Labour Party after that result and today’s win shows that this changed Labour Party is ready to deliver the change that communities like Hartlepool are crying out for.’Making gains here shows that the party is on track to win a general election and is firmly back in the service of working people.’

Along with the direct challenge from Labour and apparent squeeze on Tory votes in ‘Red Wall’ areas from Reform, the Liberal Democrats claimed they were gaining ground in traditional Conservative heartlands in southern England.

A party source said they were expecting positive results in Oxfordshire, Hampshire and Hertfordshire. 

As well as the council elections, voting also took place on Thursday in 11 mayoral contests and 37 police and crime commissioner elections.

Conservative rebels are poised to pounce on a dismal night for Mr Sunak by mounting a fresh effort to oust the PM from No10 in the coming days.

Tories fear they could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending.

The final result in Sunderland was Labour 18, Liberal Democrats four and Conservatives three, as Sir Keir’s party retained control.

Although Reform did not win one of the 25 seats being contested, Mr Tice hailed his party’s performance.

He said Reform were ‘rapidly becoming the real opposition to Labour, whether it’s in the North, the Midlands, we know it’s the case in Wales’. 

Mr Tice added: ‘We are very excited. This is a very good day for Reform UK. It’s also a good day for democracy, actually, because the Great British people have got a serious alternative to consider when they want to go and vote.’

Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris said the results in Sunderland showed ‘if you vote Reform, you get Labour’.

The Northern Ireland Secretary told the BBC: ‘It’s a very straightforward equation for people at the next general election.

‘If they want to vote Reform, they’ll end up with Labour MPs, and they’ll end up with a Labour government, and then they’ll end up, probably, with everything they didn’t want to vote for based on the profile of Reform voters.’

Peterborough remained under no overall control, but Labour became the biggest party after gaining five seats while the Conservatives lost 11. 

Labour retained control of South Tyneside, but lost at least seven seats to independents.

Sir Keir’s party were fearing a local elections backlash over the Gaza conflict in some parts of the country.

Mayoral battles in Tees Valley and the West Midlands will also be a key barometer of Conservative and Labour fortunes ahead of the general election.

In London, Labour mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to win an historic third term in City Hall despite a challenge by Tory rival Susan Hall over ULEZ and crime rates.

As polls closed last night, Labour MP Pat McFadden MP, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said: ‘The most important election of the night is the historic by-election in Blackpool, caused by yet more Tory chaos and scandal.

‘It’s the only election today where voters have had the opportunity to directly reject Rishi Sunak’s party in Westminster.

‘It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election.’

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey also sought to pile the pressure on Mr Sunak, saying: ‘Up and down the country, so many lifelong Conservative voters backed the Liberal Democrats today’.

Every voter in England and Wales was able to cast a ballot in at least one type of election before 10pm on Thursday.

There were 2,600 council seats in England up for grabs across 107 authorities.

Many of the seats were last fought in 2021 – a year in which the Conservatives did particularly well in local elections at a high point in Boris Johnson‘s premiership.

The Tory slump since then was demonstrated by the latest YouGov poll, published on Thursday, showing the party on 18 per cent with Labour on 44 per cent.

This was the lowest Conservative vote share of this Parliament, lower than under Liz Truss, when it sank to 19 per cent.

The survey of 2,010 British voters, conducted between April 30 and May 1, also showed the Tories only three percentage points ahead of Reform on 15 per cent.

As well as the mayoral contest in London between Mr Khan and Ms Hall, there are also likely to be close-run battles in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.

Polls suggested narrow contests between Conservative incumbents Ben Houchen and Andy Street, respectively, and their Labour rivals.

On Thursday, Mr Sunak and his wife Akshata posed for pictures out campaigning in Chelsea, while Sir Keir went to vote in London with wife Victoria.

Other politicians gave a glimpse into their family lives, with Mr Houchen carrying his baby into a polling station in Tees Valley.

Both main parties sought to manage expectations ahead of polling day, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt insisting governments can get ‘punished’ in local elections.

He told Sky News: ‘Tony Blair easily lost those amounts of councillors. 

‘And, you know, David Cameron lost hundreds of councillors in the run up to the 2015 general election.

‘So, you know, we are expecting to see significant losses. That often happens in local elections.

‘But what we say to people is, look, this may be a moment when you want to express a view about the national picture.

‘But actually the local services you depend on will be decided by how you vote.’

Meanwhile Labour said the mayoral system favours incumbents, though Sir Keir Starmer said he is ‘hopeful’ it will win the West Midlands contest.

Wins for both Mr Houchen and Mr Street and would offer the Tories a ray of light in what forecasts suggest could be a dismal set of results.

But experts warned the metro mayor races would be the ‘least reliable indicator’ of what could happen at a general election.

Both Mr Houchen and Mr Street received backing from Mr Johnson.

The PM’s press secretary said the former premiers interventions were welcome, despite both candidates having appeared to have distanced themselves from their party allegiance throughout campaigning.

Sir John Curtice told an Institute for Government event this week the Tories were emphasising the two mayoral battles ‘because they think they might manage to win the contest and therefore they’ll be able to cover whatever disasters happen elsewhere’.

‘Because of the personal votes of these two, (these contests are) going to be the least reliable indicator,’ he said.

‘Equally, conversely here in London, Sadiq Khan will not do as well as the Labour Party would do in a general election because Sadiq has a negative personal vote. But this city is now so strong Labour, he’s going to win anyway,’ he said.

In a final message before polling stations open, Sir Keir said: ‘Britain is, despite everything this Tory government has thrown at it, a great country.

‘Its people, businesses, and communities continue to come together in the face of adversity. It is a strong nation of pride and potential, with boundless ambition for its family and its community.

‘But it needs a government to match that ambition, and with a plan to unlock it. Today, you have a chance to vote for that change, and pass a verdict on fourteen years of decline. You can start to rebuild our country and take your community in a different direction.’

The Liberal Democrats, who have focused campaigning efforts in traditional Conservative areas, said polling day would be a moment for Mr Sunak to ‘face the music’.

Sir Ed Davey said the results would be a ‘damning verdict on record waiting lists, sewage destroying rivers, and the worst cost of living crisis in a generation’.

‘The country knows the buck stops at the door of Downing Street,’ he said.

Top Cabinet ministers rushed to Mr Sunak’s defence ahead of the local election results.

Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons, dispelled rumours of a leadership bid and pledged to stand by the PM.

She told MPs on Thursday: ‘I too have read that I’m to be installed rather like a new boiler into No10 next week.

‘And I have to say there is as much truth to these stories as there is in Labour’s assurances to its business community that it isn’t actually going to do the things it’s been saying it’s going to do, as it’s promised its union paymasters.

‘But let me say again, I support our PM and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.’

On Wednesday, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch insisted that the PM was safe regardless of the outcome of the local elections.

She told Sky News: ‘I think there’s a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention but the PM has the full backing of the Cabinet, he has my full backing.’

Asked whether that would be the case even if the Conservatives suffered a drubbing on Thursday, Ms Badenoch said: ‘I think that is right.’

Mr Sunak’s press secretary did not deny a Bloomberg report that Mr Sunak told Tory staff that they could be part of the ‘greatest comeback in history’, in an admission of the scale of the challenge he faces.

The press secretary said: ‘There is no doubt that we have work to do. It’s obviously been a really tough time for the country with Covid and Ukraine and the impact of that on inflation.

‘But… I can look back at the last week, we’ve done a massive defence announcement which Labour have not matched, which means that our country would be at risk under Labour.

‘We’ve done a massive welfare intervention to address the unsustainable rise in the welfare bill. And we are clearly making some progress on tackling illegal immigration.’