3 explanation why Tories could unseat Sadiq Khan as London mayor in election shock

Sadiq Khan is in a nerve-racking battle to cling on as Mayor of London.

The Labour politician, who has run the capital since 2016, faces a challenge from Tory Susan Hall. If he is ousted it would be a major upset. Ms Hall has faced criticism over her divisive views , including support of Donald Trump.

Mr Khan has won praise for his introduction of free school meals for all primary school pupils in London. But he has faced controversy for his expansion of Ulez.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone, which sees drivers of the most polluting vehicles made to pay a daily charge, was extended to cover all 33 boroughs of Greater London last August.

The Conservatives have faced criticism over the decision to put up Ms Hall as their candidate. During her campaign, she admitted that she did not know the price of a bus fare, the starting salary of a police officer, or who controlled Hammersmith Bridge across the River Thames, which is at the heart of a bitter funding row.

It also emerged she had liked a social media post picturing Enoch Powell with the ­caption, “It’s never too late to get London back!”

1. No one has ever won a third term

Ken Livingstone was beaten by Boris Johnson when he tried in 2008, while Mr Johnson decided to return to Westminster instead of seeking a third term.

Sadiq Khan was first elected in 2016 when he got 44.2% of first preference voters. When he ran for a second time in 2021 – after the election was delayed a year because of the pandemic – his share of first preference votes was lower at 40.0%.

2. The voting system has changed

For the first time the election will be decided by First Past The Post in the same way as parliamentary elections. Previously voters got to cast a first and second preference vote.

This meant that supporters of parties such as the Greens and Lib Dems could back their own candidate in the first round and then give their vote to Mr Khan in a second round. This time that will not be the case with people getting just one choice.

In 2021, Mr Khan got just over 1million votes in the first round. He then picked up an extra 192,000 votes in the second round when other candidates including those from the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were elminated.

3. Turnout is higher in outer London

Figures show that a larger proportion of people voted in outer London boroughs, which traditionally have been more likely to back the Conservatives.

There are fears that many people in these areas are angry about Mr Khan’s decision to expand Ulez, which charges drivers of the most polluting vehicles.

Turnout was 48.4% in Bexley and Bromley, compared to just 31.1% in the City and some East London boroughs.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone originally covered just central London. It was extended to the North and South Circular roads in 2021, before being expanded to cover all 33 boroughs of Greater London last August. It is now in force for roughly everywhere inside the M25.