UK normal election newest: Live updates amid rumours of snap vote

Our political editor James Tapsfield has laid out the reasons why Rishi Sunak should and shouldn’t call an election later tonight as all eyes turn to Westminster ahead of a possible announcement.

Why call an election now?

A ballot has been widely seen as likely to happen towards the end of the year, with the government hoping the economy will turn round.

The rumours gathered pace after Mr Sunak hailed a ‘major milestone’ with inflation tumbling to the lowest level in nearly three years.

The headline CPI rate slid from 3.2 per cent in March to 2.3 per cent last month – near the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.

The PM said the figures showed that his plan is working and ‘brighter days are ahead’.

And why he shouldn’t trigger vote?

The strongest argument for going long is because the Tories are a long way behind in the polls.

The latest Savanta poll gave Labour a 17-point lead over the Tories. According to Electoral Calculus, those numbers would produce a 236 majority for Keir Starmer.

And the Savanta poll is not an outlier, other pollsters have the gap even wider.

Then there is the aforementioned small boat issue. If the Rwanda flights do not take off, or they fail to dissuade people from crossing, there is likely to be a backlash from voters in the autumn.

Under the current election laws, the prime minister of the day has a lot of power to decide when an election is. He needs to win a simple majority in a vote in the Commons to trigger a process which sets out a 25-day countdown to the vote.

If he tabled a vote today, the theoretical earliest an election could take place is June 27.

However, convention dictates that after an announcement, Parliament be given a few days to finish passing any unfinished business it wants to get done before being dissolved.

The date of July 4 is being floated, as it would allow this period, known in Westminster as ‘the wash up’, to take place. But a date later in the month is more likely as the remaining business would have to take place tomorrow.

Instead a date later in July is more likely.

Rumours of a general election were circulating first thing this morning and gathered pace when Rishi Sunak hailed a ‘major milestone’ with inflation tumbling to the lowest level in nearly three years.

BBC Political Editor Chris Mason then fuelled speculation by saying the Prime Minister was ‘twitchy’ about the election timing.

During PMQs this lunchtime, SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said in the Commons: ‘Speculation is rife, so I think the public deserve a clear answer to a simple question. Does the Prime Minister intend to call a summer general election or is he feart?’

Mr Sunak replied:

There is, Mr Speaker, spoiler alert, there is going to be a general election in the second half of this year.

At that moment, the British people will in fact see the truth about the honourable gentleman opposite me, because that will be the choice at the next election Mr Speaker, a party that is not able to say to the country what they would do, a party that would put at risk our hard-earned economic stability, or the Conservatives that are delivering a secure future for our United Kingdom.

But anticipation has continued to build with Lord Cameron is cutting short a trip to Albania to be back in time for a Cabinet meeting at 4.15pm, while Jeremy Hunt has cancelled an appearance on ITV tonight.

The reason some Conservatives may be scratching their heads at rumours the country may be about to head to the polls may result from Labour’s dominant position in the polls.

Labour have consistently led in the opinion surveys for a while now with some giving Keir Starmer’s party a near 20 point lead over Mr Sunak.

The latest Savanta poll gave Labour a 17-point lead over the Tories. According to Electoral Calculus, those numbers would produce a 236 majority for Keir Starmer.

He would have 443 MPs, while the Conservatives would have just 124. That is compared to the 376 returned in Boris Johnson’s 2019 landslide.

If you’re just joining us this afternoon, let’s try and get you up to speed with the main points you need to know ahead of a possible announcement later:

• Speculation Rishi Sunak will pull the trigger on an election contest is fevered as the Prime Minister meets his Cabinet at 4.15pm
• Mr Sunak insisted earlier today any ballot will happen in the ‘second half of the year’ as he was grilled at PMQs
• But rumours have ramped up after Jeremy Hunt cancelled an appearance on ITV tonight while Lord Cameron has cut short a trip to Albania to be back in time for the meeting
• Senior Conservative sources initially claimed briefing was coming from Labour, but have pointedly refused to rule out the PM making an announcement later
• The drama is threatening to spark a major row in the Tory party with MPs telling MailOnline Mr Sunak has a death wish while one MP suggested they could attempt a coup to dissolve Parliament

We will bring you the latest on this developing story.

Our political editor James Tapsfield reports how election fever has today gripped Westminster amid rumours Rishi Sunak is about to call a snap vote.

He reports the drama threatens to cause a major Tory row, with MPs telling us that Mr Sunak has a ‘death wish’ and the Parliamentary party will go ‘nuts’ if he tries to call an election.

Read his report here:

MailOnline will be providing live updates this afternoon amid frenzied rumours that a date for the general election could be announced later today.

Rishi Sunak will host a Cabinet meeting at 4.15pm today with anticipation building he could spring the surprise vote afterwards.

Speculation has steadily ramped up throughout the day with the Prime Minister asked about it at PMQs while ministers cut short trips and cancel planned television appearances ahead of the meeting.

Follow our coverage as we bring you the latest news from Westminster plus reaction and analysis to this potentially seismic moment.