Can ‘Whitby Woman’ save the Tories from election catastrophe?
Rishi Sunak‘s hopes of avoiding electoral disaster could hang on whether the Tories can win over ‘Whitby Woman’.
Pollsters believe that the verdict of a category of Brits who are female, largely in their 60s and backed Brexit will be critical on July 4.
Named after the town where they are most concentrated, the group are identified as home-owners who did not go to university.
Their top concern is the NHS above the cost of living, according to think-tank More in Common.
Although Labour has a massive advantage in headline polling numbers, their support is widely regarded as soft – with large proportions of voters still not having made a final decision.
Stopping these wavering voters from switching to Labour is a key goal of Tory strategists, who are targeting them relentlessly with policies and messages.
Rishi Sunak ‘s hopes of avoiding electoral disaster could hang on whether the Tories can win over ‘Whitby Woman’
Pollsters believe that the verdict of a category of Brits who are female, largely in their 60s and backed Brexit will be critical on July 4
More in Common analysis suggests that women have abandoned the Tories – but are still not sure who to vote for
Focus groups have suggested ‘Whitby Woman’ is particularly receptive to Mr Sunak’s argument that Britain has ‘turned a corner’ after Covid and spiking inflation.
They are also generally unconvinced about Keir Starmer and suspicious of Labour after the Corbyn years.
Spelling out the importance of the voting category earlier this week, Luke Tryl of More in Common said: ‘For the Conservatives to avoid a 1997 style meltdown they need to win back some of those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now don’t know who they will vote for and this group are around 70 per cent female.
‘The group has an average age in the early 60s, tend to own their own home and live in a small town or suburb.
‘Most don’t have a degree and they tend to own their own home outright.’
The pollster has pointed to a string of Tory-held seats where this category of voters are likely to be decisive.
Mr Tryl pointed out that Mr Sunak’s high-profile announcements on national service, pensioner tax allowances, and rip-off degrees looked tailored to the group.
However, he also stressed that keeping them on board would not be enough for a Tory victory.
‘Instead they are the group that makes a difference between 1997 (or worse) and a smaller scale defeat for the Tories,’ Mr Tryl said.
‘If Whitby woman stays home, votes Reform or switches then the Tories struggle to hit 30 per cent and a whole series of seats come into play – not just those on the map – but including e.g. North Northumberland, the Isle of Wight seats whose loss point to a meltdown result for the Tories.’
Election experts have long been fond of coming up with pithy nicknames for voters who can swing a result.
In the past they have included ‘Mondeo Man’ and, more recently, ‘Workington Man’.
There was more evidence today that the wider backdrop for the Tories is grim.
The latest YouGov tracker found the Conservatives on just 21 per cent, with Labour on 46 per cent.
Although Keir Starmer has a massive advantage in headline polling numbers, their support is widely regarded as soft – with large proportions of voters still not having made a final decision
The latest YouGov tracker found the Conservatives on just 21 per cent, with Keir Starmer ‘s party on 46 per cent
The advantage was down two points overall since the beginning of the week, but the change was within the margin of error.
The effective standstill will be a disappointment as high-profile policy announcements on tax cuts for pensioners and axing ‘rip off’ degrees received backing.
Compulsory national service was endorsed as an idea by 57 per cent of over-65s – a target group for the Tories – although by just 18 per cent of 18-24 year-olds.
Meanwhile, there are signs that Reform has gained support after a series of high-profile interventions from Nigel Farage.
