Could responsible Trump go to jail – what hush cash convictions imply for US election

Donald Trump has been found guilty of a hush-money plot to buy the silence of an adult film star, becoming the first former US president to be convicted of a crime.

The Former president, 77, was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records after a Manhattan jury deliberated for less than 12 hours. It marks a major shift in the upcoming presidential race with Republican Trump still looking to unseat Democrat incumbent Joe Biden, 81.

Trump had been accused of paying adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 (£102,245) for her silence about an affair with the businessman. Prosecutors proved to the jury that Trump falsified records when he repaid his former lawyer Michael Cohen for the payment to Daniels.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said following the trial: “While this defendant may be unlike any other in American history, we arrived at this trial, and ultimately today at this verdict, in the same manner as every other cases that comes through the courtroom doors, by following the facts and the law, and doing so without dear or favour.” White House spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement: “We respect the rule of law, and have no additional comment.”

Speaking outside the court afterward, Trump said: “This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.”

Trump now faces three other criminal cases, two of which include two instances of alleged election interference. Those trials look unlikely to begin ahead of the presidential election on November 5.

When will Donald Trump be sentenced?

The conviction means Trump goes into a high-stakes TV debate with Biden on June 27 knowing that his sentencing will follow on just a few days later. The former president is due to face sentencing on July 11.

Critics of the verdict, including Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, said the former president had his support despite him being found guilty on all counts. “President Trump has never stopped fighting for the American people – even as he has faced the wrath of a weaponised justice system and a political witch hunt sham trial. Now, more than ever, we need to have President Trump’s back and grow our House majority. Stand with President.”

Is Donald Trump likely to go to jail?

Judge Juan Merchan will face an unprecedented choice on July 11 on whether the Republican presidential candidate should be sentenced to time behind bars. Prison stints for felony falsification of business records are rare in New York state.

According to Reuters, legal experts have said the precedent is only so helpful to Merchan. “Typically this is not the kind of case where you would expect a first-time white-collar offender to receive a sentence of incarceration,” said New York defense lawyer Andrew Weinstein, who previously represented a man sentenced to three years’ conditional discharge after he pleaded guilty to falsifying business records as part of a check-cashing scheme.

While falsifying business records are typically misdemeanour offences in New York, the charges were boosted up to the more serious felony level due to claims it was done in an attempt to influence the upcoming 2016 election. Trump has repeatedly denied having sex with Daniels and has been seen as likely to appeal the conviction.

What does it mean for the US election?

There is nothing in the US Constitution that bars Trump for running for president, even as a convicted criminal. The Constitution demands candidates are: At least 35 years old, a “natural born” US citizen, and that they have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

But a poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consultant, taken between the 16th and 22nd of January this year, found an estimated 53 per cent of voters in key swing states would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime. A Quinnipiac University poll released this month found just six per cent of voters would be less likely to vote for him. While the number may seem small, the difference could have huge consequences.

Trump does retain the confidence of many Republicans with many claiming the trial was rigged, or somehow orchestrated by Biden’s team. Democrats have argued Trump was found guilty by New York jurors and that they have had no influence in the case.

Die-hard supporter Marjorie Taylor-Green, a Republican Representative for Georgia saying on X, formerly Twitter, yesterday: “Joe Biden’s campaign orchestrated a rally outside of the courthouse in New York City supporting a potential conviction of President Trump. This case has been rigged from the start and we all knew it. This isn’t a prosecution, it’s a persecution. We must end the weaponization.”

Democrat Senate Majority Leader said on the social media platform: “No one is above the law. The verdict speaks for itself.”