Only 4 in ten voters have made up their thoughts
Rishi Sunak has been given a glimmer of hope as a major new poll by Lord Ashcroft suggests that more than half of voters have yet to definitively make up their minds.
With less than five weeks until the General Election, research shared exclusively with the Daily Mail found only four in ten have ‘definitely decided’ how to vote.
But in a sign of the mountain the Tories still have to climb, the poll gives Labour a 23 point lead.
Overall, it puts Labour on a 47 per cent vote share, with the Tories on 24 per cent, and Reform UK on 11 per cent.
The poll also suggests Sir Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are more trusted with running the economy than Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt.
Rishi Sunak speaks during a a campaign rally in Milton Keynes on May 30
Sir Keir Starmer speaks at the Priory Centre in Abergavenny, Wales
And the Labour leader is named as the best prime minister by 37 per cent to 19 per cent – though nearly half of all voters say they do not know.
He is, however, perceived as ‘dull’ and ‘indecisive’, while Mr Sunak is branded ‘out of touch’ and ‘out of his depth’.
Nearly two thirds – 63 per cent – of voters expect the election to result in a Labour majority, with just 5 per cent predicting a Tory majority.
Overall, only 42 per cent of those surveyed said they had definitely decided how to vote, while 27 per cent said they were leaning towards a party but may change their mind.
Some 13 per cent said they were ‘completely undecided’ but would probably vote, 13 per cent said they ‘probably won’t vote’, while 5 per cent ‘don’t know’.
And only 54 per cent of 2019 Conservatives voters switching to Labour say they have definitely decided how to vote.
Writing for the Mail today, Lord Ashcroft says that while the election ‘may feel like a foregone conclusion’, the coming weeks ‘will make the difference between a Labour landslide and a result that is much closer than many expect’
The research by JL Partners over May 24 and 25 put Sir Keir’s party on 40 per cent, but suggested the Tories were on 28 per cent – up two points since the start of May
Mr Sunak will need to sway wavering voters to back him in order to narrow Sir Keir’s lead as July 4 approaches.
The NHS and social care, the cost of living and immigration and asylum are the three most important issues when it comes to deciding how to vote at the election, the poll found.
Three-quarters of those intending to vote Tory and 90 per cent of those intending to back Reform UK said immigration was a major reason for struggling public services.
But 77 per cent of those intending to vote Labour said immigration was a distraction from underfunding.
The findings highlight the importance of Mr Sunak having a strong message on migration to bring back voters who are considering backing Reform.
The poll also suggested that there was no good time to announce the General Election.
Most voters believe the result of the election would have been ‘much the same’ whenever Mr Sunak called it – with only 9 per cent believing it would have been better for him if he had waited until later in the year.
Three-quarters of those intending to vote Tory and 90 per cent of those intending to back Reform UK said immigration was a major reason for struggling public services
Mr Sunak will need to sway wavering voters to back him in order to narrow Sir Keir’s lead as July 4 approaches
Writing for the Mail today, Lord Ashcroft says that while the election ‘may feel like a foregone conclusion’, the coming weeks ‘will make the difference between a Labour landslide and a result that is much closer than many expect’.
He said ‘much depends’ on ‘disgruntled Tories’ who feel the Conservatives have failed on many fronts, but think Sir Keir would be even worse.
To win back voters, the Tories could look to the key areas of concern for voters identified by the poll, Lord Ashcroft says.
The Tories have so far dominated the discourse with bold pledges to bring back a form of National Service, scrap ‘rip-off’ degrees and to introduce a ‘triple lock plus’ for pensioners.
Their plans have received mixed reviews, but the proposals for pensions and National Service are popular among older voters at risk of defecting to Reform UK.
But Nigel Farage’s party is putting pressure on the Tories over issues including immigration.
Yesterday, Reform pledged to introduce an employer immigration tax which would put a premium on national insurance for those who ‘want to employ non-British passport holders’.
The research was carried out by Lord Ashcroft from May 24 to May 28, with a sample size of 4,828.
It comes after a shock poll earlier this week suggested Labour’s lead over the Tories had slipped to 12 points.
The research by JL Partners over May 24 and 25 put Sir Keir’s party on 40 per cent, but suggested the Tories were on 28 per cent – up two points since the start of May.
But other polls have put Labour comfortably ahead and last night a YouGov survey for the Times showed the Tories trailing by 25 points.
Overall, they were up one point on 21 per cent while Labour were down one, on 46 per cent.
