Bombshell examine suggests Labour may win virtually 500 seats
Labour could win an unprecedented almost 500 seats in the election amid a Tory wipeout, according to a bombshell study.
The first mega poll of the general election campaign, involving more than 10,000 people, forecasts the party will secure between 476 and 493 seats as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struggles to shift public opinion.
The study by experts Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, finds that the Tories are on course to be reduced to a derisory rump of between 66 and 72 MPs.
It would be the party’s worst election defeat in history.
The forecast Labour victory would hand party leader Sir Keir Starmer a whopping majority of more than 300.
The study by experts Electoral Calculus, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, finds that the Tories are on course to be reduced to a derisory rump of between 66 and 72 MPs
James Daly (left), the Conservative candidate for Bury North, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (right) on a train on May 31
From left to right: Anas Sarwar, Sir Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband at the Port of Greenock on May 31
It would be a bigger landslide than that enjoyed by former Labour PM Sir Tony Blair in 1997 (419 seats) and the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history.
Were the projections to materialise, Labour would likely enjoy at least a decade in government as no party with such a huge majority has lost the subsequent election.
It lays bare the gargantuan uphill battle Mr Sunak is facing to turn Tory fortunes around before polling day on 4 July.
Eighteen Cabinet Ministers are likely to be among the Tory casualties, according to the study, including Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary.
The analysis shows how the Tories are being outflanked on multiple fronts, including Labour and Reform in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ in the Midlands and North and by the Liberal Democrats in ‘Blue Wall’ home counties seats across the south.
While Reform is not projected to win any seats, it puts the party on 12 percentage points, meaning it will split the Right-leaning vote in dozens of seats and allow Labour to waltz through the middle.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to pick up 10 per cent of the vote and win between 39 and 59 seats due to their support being less thinly spread, potentially giving them just seven MPs less than the Tories.
Labour are on 46 percentage points and the Tories on 19 per cent, according to the poll.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, pictured at a cake stall in Burrs Country Park, has struggled to shift public opinion
The forecast Labour victory would hand party leader Sir Keir Starmer (pictured) a whopping majority of more than 300
Electoral Calculus used the multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) method for its study, considered to be more accurate than conventional polling, but also factored in other surveys to reduce margins of error and hone the results.
A range of seat victories was predicted for each party due to uncertainties around to what extent voters may vote tactically.
About half of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters are likely to vote tactically if their favourite party is unlikely to win the seat, and they would share their vote with one of those other parties.
But in a blow for Mr Sunak, Less than a quarter (22%) of Reform supporters are likely to vote tactically to support the Conservatives.
Mr Sunak ruled out an electoral pact with Reform this week to stop the Right-leaning vote being split.
In Scotland, Labour and Lib Dem voters will support each other tactically, the study found, making things even harder for the Tories.
In a further blow for Mr Sunak, seven in ten voters said they get either ‘very bad’ or ‘bad’ value for money from the Tory Government amid the highest tax burden for 70 years.
More than half of voters also said they were ‘much worse’ or ‘slightly worse’ off than a year ago, suggesting the Government has not done enough to ease the cost-of-living crisis.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: ‘Our survey shows that Labour’s poll lead, which is larger than Tony Blair’s in 1997, would mean an even bigger Labour landslide.
Labour, headed by Keir Starmer (pictured), are on 46 percentage points and the Tories on 19 per cent, according to the poll
It would be a bigger landslide than that enjoyed by former Labour PM Sir Tony Blair (centre) in 1997 (419 seats) and the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history
‘With less than five weeks to go, Rishi Sunak has to hope that all the polls are overstating Labour’s strength, that Labour weakens under the scrutiny of the campaign, and that he can re-attract former supporters who have gone to Reform or plan not to vote.
‘Conservative MPs up for re-election might wonder if things would be better for them if they hadn’t got rid of Boris Johnson.’ Mr Johnson won a majority of 80 against former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
Until Parliament was dissolved this week, the Tories had 348 seats to Labour’s 200 and the Liberal Democrats’ 15.
