Who will win the General Election after bombshell YouGov mega-poll
Rishi Sunak went into tonight’s TV head-to-head with a mountain to climb as the Tories face an election mauling.
The under-fire PM will need an unprecedented turnaround if he’s going to keep his job as his party faces a historic wipeout. A bombshell mega-poll by YouGov says the party could be left with just 140 seats after July 4 – having won a massive 365 in 2019.
Labour leader Keir Starmer is expected to sweep into Downing Street with a majority of 194, pollsters predict. Even Reform UK chief Nigel Farage said the contest is “over” and a Labour Government is inevitable. The Prime Minister needs nothing less than a knock-out blow against Starmer to revive his campaign. Sunak drafted in TV debate coach Graham Davies on a £110,000 taxpayer-funded contract to train ministers.
Who will win the General Election now?
The latest poll predicts Labour will get a massive 422 seats. If this is correct it would see Mr Starmer’s team outperform even the 1997 landslide under Tony Blair. The Lib Dems are tipped to win 48 seats, up from just 15 when Parliament was dissolved last month.
The SNP also faces wipeout in Scotland, returning just 17 MPs – down from 43. The Green Party and Plaid Cymru are each expected to get two.
Big names tipped to be kicked out include Cabinet members Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Mel Stride and Mark Harper. Mr Starmer would win the second largest majority in British political history, behind only Conservative Stanley Baldwin’s 210 in 1924.
Mr Starmer and Mr Sunak will face off in the first face-to-face debate of the General Election campaign. It will be broadcast at 9pm on ITV.
Latest YouGov poll results
Mr Sunak faced a backlash from within Conservative ranks after calling a snap election, with few believing he can win from so far behind. A Tory source told The Mirror: “Rishi needs a game changer. But it won’t happen.”
The YouGov poll – which uses data from almost 60,000 voters – uses the MRP (Multi-level Regression and Poststratification) technique – which was the first to flag that Theresa May wouldn’t get an overall majority in 2017. Mr Sunak has faced anger within the Tory fold after calling a snap election on July 4. Last week Mr Starmer claimed the PM had tried to set an ambush for Labour – but ended up setting one for himself.
Last time the UK went to the polls in 2019, Boris Johnson’s Tories won 365 seats while Labour under Jeremy Corbyn got 202. The projected result would see Mr Sunak win 62 fewer seats than the then-Labour leader managed in what was a catastrophic result.
Launching his campaign in Clacton, Essex, Mr Farage said: “This election effectively is over. The breach of trust from the Conservatives means that they’re finished, they’re done. We are going to get a Labour government, whether you like it or not.”
He continued: “The question is who is going to be the voice of opposition? I want Reform UK, with me at the helm, to be in Parliament and I promise you I’ll liven it up a lot from what it currently is.”
