Macron’s resolution to name an election is a determined throw of the cube
Emmanuel Macron is gambling not only his own career but the stability of all Europe on this desperate throw of the dice. Faced with a surge to the hard-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen, he has called a snap election.
His Renaissance party garnered fewer than half as many votes – 15 per cent of the turnout in France, compared with Le Pen’s 32 per cent.
That’s an even worse deficit than the Conservatives are currently showing against Labour in UK opinion polls. Many pundits thought Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was reckless to the point of stupidity when he announced a July election, instead of waiting till the autumn. Macron’s decision makes Sunak look like a model of caution.
Perhaps the French president calculates that he might repeat the cunning success of his predecessor Francois Mitterand, who allowed the right-wing government of Jacques Chirac to take over at a crucial moment in the late 1980s. Chirac bungled the job, and Mitterand was able to posture as the nation’s saviour when the electorate backed him at a later election.
But many historians are more likely to remember Edward Heath’s ill-fated challenge to UK voters in 1974 when, as a miner’s strike plunged the country into darkness, he campaigned for re-election under the slogan: ‘Who governs Britain?’
Emmanuel Macron announces his decision to dissolve the French parliament today
Not you, the voters replied. Heath was ousted.
Now Macron is asking the French: ‘What do you want – stability with me or chaos with Le Pen?’
Yet with Europe in its current febrile mood, the knee-jerk reaction of many French voters will be to embrace chaos. The support base for the technocratic Macronistas is evaporating, as young people become increasingly polarised – drawn towards the hard-Right or far-Left.
The far-Left in France is led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, an unpredictable firebrand. He might actually throw his hand in with Le Pen to deny Macron’s supporters any chance of a majority – so he can swing the country to socialism once the electorate becomes disillusioned with Le Pen.
The big difference with France’s system is that, even if his party is trounced at the polls, Macron will not be forced to step down as president. He holds that office regardless, until 2027. But with Le Pen as prime minister, he would be not so much a lame duck, more a cooked goose.
A Le Pen regime would be intensely antagonistic to France’s burgeoning Muslim population, and one likely consequence could be an increase in terrorist attacks.
But the biggest impact could be on the war in Ukraine.
Although Macron was initially an appeaser of Putin, for the past six months he has been increasingly anti-Kremlin, bringing to bear France’s weight with its seat on the UN Security Council as well as its nuclear status.
Meanwhile, Le Pen has often voiced admiration for Russia and its dictator, and is likely to withdraw support for President Zelensky in Kiev.
Compound that with the strong possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House at the beginning of next year, and the real winner of Macron’s extraordinary decision could be Russia.
