8 Tory Manifesto pledges that do not add up – Rishi Sunak’s spin vs the fact
Rishi Sunak made a last-ditch bid to win over disgruntled voters with a tax-slashing Tory manifesto.
With only three weeks to go until polling day, the Prime Minister sought to revive his flatlining campaign with a £17.2 billion package of tax cuts, including knocking 2p off employees National Insurance. He also vowed to cut immigration – after it rocketed under the Tories – as he faces pressure on the right from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The crisis-hit Prime Minister admitted that people were “frustrated” with him and the Tories “have not got everything right”. But he tried to claim that the Conservatives were the only party with the ideas to improve the country – after 14 years of Tory misrule.
Labour said the plans would push up borrowing, risking increase interest rates and a £4,800 hike to mortgages by the end of the next Parliament. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) economic think tank also said it was sceptical about the Tories’ ability to raise the money needed for the plans.
We’ve gone through the 76-page manifesto line by line and pulled out the some of the key pledges – and what the reality is underneath the spin.
(
Getty Images)
Immigration
What the Tory manifesto says
Rishi Sunak claimed to have a credible plan to halve net migration and stop small boats crossings by ensuring a ‘regular rhythm’ of flights to Rwanda.
Reality
Net migration estimated at 685,000 last year – up from 230,000 in 2019, when the Conservatives vowed to bring it down. There have already been more than 11,000 small boat crossings this year.
The Tories want to impose a cap on migration – but says Parliament will decide what the number is. After three years of deadlock the PM vowed to get flights to Rwanda underway, but many Tory rebels don’t believe legislation is strong enough to prevent legal challenges.
Tougher sentences
What the Tory manifesto says
The Tory manifesto pledges to get tougher on murderers and rapists. It says that life without parole will be mandatory for the “most heinous” killers, while the most serious sex offenders won’t be eligible for early release.
It also pledged 25 year terms for domestic murderers.
Reality
It’s no secret that prisons are full and some inmates are being freed early. This likely explains why the Tories vowed to increase community payback sentences and tagging.
Renters/rough sleeping
What the Tory manifesto says
Section 21 notices, which allow renters to be evicted on a whim and without reason by landlords, will be abolished.
It also vows to “continue with our plans to end rough sleeping”.
Reality
Five years ago Boris Johnson’s election manifesto also pledged to abolish the so-called “no-fault evictions” but the plan was repeatedly delayed and watered down. It then failed to become law by the time Rishi Sunak called the General Election.
Figures in February also showed there was a 27% spike in rough sleeping in England in 2023 – despite “plans” to end rough sleeping.
Tax
What the Tory manifesto says
Rishi Sunak’s flagship proposal is to cut another 2p of national insurance by April 2027 if he wins the General Election. The Tories will also abolish the main rate of self-employed national insurance entirely by 2029.
Reality
Tory stealth taxes including the freeze in income tax thresholds until 2028 will mean many workers are dragged into paying a higher rate of tax. The Resolution Foundation think-tank says the tax cuts announced would still leave overall taxes going up after the election – but by £5.7billion a year instead of £23billion.
(
Getty Images)
Welfare
What the Tory manifesto says
The Tory manifesto vows to save £12billion a year – in part by reforming Personal Independence Payments (PIP) benefits and overhauling the “fit note” process.
Reality
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think-tank says the policies that already set out are not “up to the challenge” of saving a staggering £12billion a year. They add: “The hope seems to be that, since spending on disability benefits is rising rapidly, one can simply ‘reform disability benefits’ and hold spending down”.
NHS
What the Tory manifesto says
We will invest in more and better facilities, continuing to deliver 40 new hospitals by 2030 and investing proportionately more in out-of-hospital services over time.
Reality
Boris Johnson made this pledge in 2019 but the National Audit Office warned last year that only 32 were likely to be built in time.
In November, the cross-party Public Accounts Committee said it was “highly unlikely” the Government would meet its target and blamed the decision to raid budgets reserved for maintenance and investment in favour of day-to-day spending.
Social care
What the Tory manifesto says
We will implement our planned reforms to cap social care costs from October 2025.
Reality
Boris Johnson promised outside Downing Street in 2019 that he would “fix” social care. This included a plan to cap how much people pay for social care that was proposed back by Sir Andrew Dilnot in 2011.
But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt kicked this into the long grass, saying it wouldn’t come into force until 2025.
Mobile phones
What the Tory manifesto says
We will put our guidance on banning mobile phones in the school day on a statutory footing which will require all schools to operate
a ban, as the best schools already do.
Reality
The vast majority of schools already do this and heads were bemused by the Government’s decision to make a big fuss about banning phones. The small print of the Government’s guidance says it will be up to schools how they implement it.
