General Election 2024 polls tracker

Labour has stormed to a near 25-point lead in the polls – enough to secure a landslide bigger than Tony Blair‘s in 1997. 

Support for the Tories, meanwhile, has more than halved since the earliest days of Covid. Yet senior Conservative sources insist that opinion polls paint an overly gloomy picture of their prospects.

Reform has capitalized on the Tory decline, with Nigel Farage‘s outfit now less than 10 points behind and quickly catching up. 

Strategists plotting to keep Rishi Sunak in No10 fear Mr Farage’s dramatic and unexpected return to frontline politics will severely dent their efforts come July 4. 

The veteran Brexiteer stunned Westminster in early June when he announced that he would replace Richard Tice as leader of Reform and stand for MP in the Essex seaside town of Clacton, considered the party’s most winnable seat. 

Mr Farage, who had ruled out making an eighth bid for Parliament when the election was called in May, declared he would lead a ‘political revolt’ and that people were urging him to stand.

VOTING INTENTION BY AGE

Despite the public outcry over Rishi Sunak leaving D-Day commemorations early last Thursday for a TV interview opportunity, YouGov’s latest poll – taken the same day as the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings – shows support for his party amongst 65+ leapt 5% to 37% from the previous poll on June 4.

That is in contrast with a heavy cooling off on the Conservatives among 50-64 year-olds, with support dropping from 24% to 18% in the same period.

The Tories remain broadly unpopular with 18-24 year-olds, with voter share returning to single figures at 8% after a brief moment at 12%.

VOTING INTENTION BY BREXIT VOTE

Tories are no longer the party of choice among Leave voters, according to a running YouGov poll. 

Rolling survey data shows that Conservative support among Brexiteers has more than halved over the past four years, with Mr Sunak’s party currently sitting at around a third. 

Both Labour, who have ruled out undoing the referendum result of 2016, and Reform (formerly the Brexit Party) have seized on Tory spiral. 

In terms of Remain voters, Labour has only become stronger. 

Sir Keir has insisted that he will not seek to rejoin the EU, despite pushing for a second referendum when Jeremy Corbyn was leader. Commentators say, however, that the overwhelmingly anti-Brexit views of Labour voters and younger generations means the topic is still at the forefront of Westminster.

VOTING INTENTION BY GENDER

Labour is now the preferred choice among both men and women, having dominated the polls over the past 18 months. 

And just like with the nationwide tracker, Reform ranks third. 

However, Mr Farage’s party, seeking to attract disenchanted supporters from both parties, scores much higher for men. Around one in five men support Reform currently, compared to roughly one in eight women.

PROJECTED ELECTION RESULTS IN YOUR CONSTITUENCY 

Sir Keir’s Labour is on course for an almost 200-seat majority, according to the biggest poll of the campaign to date.

If YouGov projection came to fruition on the night, it would reduce Mr Sunak’s party to its lowest number of MPs since 1906 (140). Labour, meanwhile, would clinch 422 seats, marking its best ever election result and giving it its biggest majority since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

The sophisticated poll, involving almost 60,000 voters, analysed results down to constituency level. It predicted the Liberal Democrats would quadruple their seats, the SNP would collapse and Reform gain no MPs, although it was conducted before Mr Farage announced he was standing.

YouGov’s survey had the Tories losing 232 seats, Labour gaining 222, the Lib Dems gaining 40 and the SNP losing 31.

This would give Labour a majority of 194 seats – an increase on Sir Tony’s majority of 179.

The poll, which redraws the political map, predicts several Cabinet ministers are on course to lose their seats to Labour or the Lib Dems, including Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Chief Whip Simon Hart and minister for common sense Esther McVey.

Other respected pollsters, such as Survation, More in Common and Best for Britain, have also predicted disaster for the Tories on July 4. 

MPs THAT ARE STANDING DOWN  

Former PM Theresa May and ex-Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi are among more than 100 MPs standing down ahead of the general election.

The pair are part of a 70-plus strong Tory contingent who will leave Parliament after voters go to the polls. Other big names to be departing include ex-deputy PM Dominic Raab, COP26 president Sir Alok Sharma, and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris.

Former Health Secretaries Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock are also passing on the political baton, along with short-lived Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

On the other side, ‘Mother of the House’ Harriet Harman, 73, is the most experienced of 20 Labour MPs to be standing down. The group also includes ex-Foreign Secretary Dame Margaret Beckett and ex-Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw.

THE KEY ISSUES THAT VOTERS CARE ABOUT

Stabilising the economy is the most important issue facing the country, according to the findings of a running YouGov survey.

Fifty-one per cent of voters labelled the economy as being one of the three most pressing topics that the next Government needs to control. 

It was followed by health (49 per cent), with the ongoing impact of long NHS waiting times having been felt by millions stuck in the queue for routine treatment. 

Around two in every ten voters continue to think the environment is the most pressing issue, while immigration and asylum has dipped just below four out of every ten people.