Reform closing hole on Tories as Farage returns, ballot revelas

Nigel Farage‘s return to the political front line has given his party a four-point boost, according to the latest poll by Lord Ashcroft.

In worrying news for Rishi Sunak, Reform UK is narrowing the gap with the Conservatives, which has fallen from 23 per cent of the vote share last week to 21 per cent.

The resurgent Right-wing party is now just six points behind with 15 per cent – up from 11 per cent last week when Mr Farage suddenly announced he would stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex, and that he would take over as Reform’s leader.

The Labour Party, meanwhile, continues to have a clear lead, but has slumped four points to 43 per cent, the poll found.

When voters are asked who would make the best PM, Lord Ashcroft’s research – shared exclusively with the Daily Mail – continues to put Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer well ahead of Mr Sunak. The Prime Minister is up one percentage point compared with last week, at 20 per cent – despite his D-Day blunder when he left the ceremonies in Normandy early – while the Labour leader is down one point on 37 per cent.

In worrying news for Rishi Sunak , Reform UK is narrowing the gap with the Conservatives , which has fallen from 23 per cent of the vote share last week to 21 per cent

But writing in today’s paper, Lord Ashcroft suggests this indicates things were ‘already so bad’ for the PM that ‘not even’ that gaffe ‘could make them worse’.

The polling, carried out between June 6-10 with a sample size of 4,975 people, found 47 per cent of those leaning towards Reform UK said they would be more likely to vote Tory at this election if the Conservatives became more like Mr Farage’s party.

According to the poll, 45 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the last general election in 2019 said they ‘liked a lot’ of what Mr Farage stands for, while 83 per cent of Labour voters said that they ‘don’t like what he stands for’. Those leaning towards Reform also said the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – often blamed for hampering Parliament’s attempts to tackle illegal immigration – by 78 per cent to 13 per cent.

When voters are asked who would make the best PM, Lord Ashcroft’s research – shared exclusively with the Daily Mail – continues to put Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer well ahead of Mr Sunak

But overall, those surveyed supported remaining in the ECHR by 58 per cent to 27 per cent, with 16 per cent saying they did not know.

Almost two-thirds of voters (65 per cent) think taxes will increase under Labour, compared with 57 per cent under the Conservatives.

Many voters also expect both legal and illegal migration to increase under a Labour government, with 33 per cent saying legal migration will be higher than it is now, and 34 per cent for illegal.

But they trust Labour to keep NHS waiting lists either the same or lower them, with just 18 per cent expecting them to increase.

Sir Keir remains more trusted to run the economy than ex-chancellor Mr Sunak, but he has dropped a point compared with last week.

The resurgent Right-wing party is now just six points behind the Conservatives with 15 per cent – up from 11 per cent last week when Mr Farage suddenly announced he would stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex, and that he would take over as Reform’s leader

The poll was carried out after the first head-to-head TV debate last week, in which the Prime Minister repeatedly claimed that a Labour government would mean £2,000 of tax rises for every working household. Sir Keir later accused Mr Sunak of lying.

Lord Ashcroft writes that the return of Mr Farage – who originally said he would not be standing as a parliamentary candidate – has ‘sent a jolt through the campaign’. He adds: ‘Most of those currently leaning towards Reform said they would be more likely to vote Tory in future elections if it became more like Mr Farage’s party in terms of the things it said and the policies it promised – previous Conservative voters were also more likely than not to agree.

‘At the same time, wary voters see him as a troublemaker with a talent for publicity and wonder what his party stands for other than controlling immigration.

‘But in an otherwise uninspiring election, many see Reform as a way of getting the attention they feel they have been denied.’