Bombshell ballot says Tories will lose 300 seats as PM admits he is ‘accountable’

Keir Starmer would win 456 seats at the General Election, while Rishi Sunak would get just 72 if a bombshell poll analysis came true on July 4.

Reform UK would get seven MPs in Parliament, while the Lib Dems would get 56 seats and the SNP would have 37, according to the analysis by Survation. Plaid Cymru are on track to win two seats and the Green Party just one.

The research shows the Tories would lose 293 seats compared to its last election result, with Labour gaining 250 more seats. At the 2019 election, the Tories won 365 seats in total, with a majority of 80. Labour won 202 seats, while the Lib Dems got 11.

If Survation’s research on behalf of Best for Britain came to fruition on July 4, Labour would get a massive 262-seat majority. It would be a bigger landslide than in 1997 when Labour won 418 seats, with a 179-seat majority.

It is the first MRP study mapping polling into seats since Nigel Farage took over as Reform UK leader and announced he would stand to become an MP. Last week Reform UK overtook the Tories in a poll for the first time. The YouGov survey showed support for his party rising by two points to 19%, as the Tories remained on 18%.

In an interview with the Sunday Times, Mr Sunak said he was “ultimately responsible” for the Tories’ dismal performance in the polls, rejecting accusations Liz Truss was to blame. His election campaign has been in meltdown. The PM’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early for an ITV interview in particular has dominated headlines in the past week.

“I’m ultimately responsible for what I’m doing and no one else is. It rests on my shoulders,” Mr Sunak said. “Look, we have had a tough time. That’s not someone’s fault that we had a pandemic and then a war in Ukraine, and that is a big source of the frustration and insecurity that people feel and all the damage that it’s done to our living standards over the past few years.

“It’s nobody’s fault. That is just the reality of the situation. But I really think that after a lot of hard work and resilience from everybody, we’ve got through the worst of that and we’ve turned a corner. The economy is growing faster than all our major competitors. Inflation is back to normal, wages are rising, energy bills are falling, so people can, I hope, start to feel more confident about the future.”

Survation’s analysis is based on 42,269 online and telephone interviews, conducted between the 31st of May and the 13th of June.