Reform’s ‘contract’ insurance policies debunked – as £140bn financial savings declare ripped to shreds

Nigel Farage has unveiled Reform UK’s “contract” with voters as he staked out his ambitions for a bid for No10 in 2029.

The Reform UK leader admitted he has no chance of winning the General Election in July but claimed his insurgent party could overtake the Tories to become the opposition. At a launch event at a social club in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, Mr Farage said he had returned to the fray as “Britain is broken”.

“The real ambition is the 2029 general election but this is our first big push,” he said. “Our ambition is to establish a bridgehead in Parliament, and to become a real opposition to a Labour government.”

But his plans for £140billion-a-year worth of tax cuts and public spending were torn to shreds by economists, who warned the sums don’t add up.

Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the IFS, said Reform’s spending splurge would “require much more than a crackdown on waste; it would almost certainly require substantial cuts to the quantity or quality of public services”.

Here we sort the facts from the fiction on Reform UK’s plans.

Immigration

What the manifesto says

Reform wants to freeze “all non essential immigration” and hike National Insurance for businesses that employ foreign workers to 20%, except for essential health and care workers and for businesses with fewer than five employees.

It would quit the European Convention on Human Rights and stop small boats carrying migrants and send them back to France.

Reality

Health and care sectors are stuck in a staffing crisis and are heavily reliant on foreign workers. It is unclear what Reform means by “essential”.

Other small businesses could struggle when faced with NI increases, such as Indian restaurants who would have to pay a premium to bring in chefs from overseas.

The policy of stopping boats in the Channel is likely to violate international and maritime law. The French Government has said it won’t accept any practices contrary to the law of the sea.

Taxes and spending

What the manifesto says

Mr Farage plans to raise the income tax threshold from £12,571 to £20,000, while raising the higher rate threshold from £50,000 to £70,000.

Stamp duty would be scrapped on properties worth less than £750,000 and inheritance tax would be axed on estates worth less than £2million.

Reform claims these huge commitments can be funded by “slashing public sector back office bureaucracy” worth £50billion a year.

Reality

Economists said Reform’s sums don’t add up. The IFS thinktank said slashing taxes by £90 billion a year would still see tax revenues higher as a share of the economy than in 2019–20 – and likely cost tens of billions of pounds a year more than predicted.

It also said the efficiency savings “would almost certainly require substantial cuts to the quantity or quality of public services”.

NHS

What the manifesto says

It pledges to eliminate NHS waiting lists in two years, with a cash injection of £17billion a year for health.

Reform would give patients a voucher for a private GP if they haven’t been seen in three days, three weeks for a consultant or nine weeks for an operation. The service would still be free at the point of use.

Reality

NHS waiting lists have never been eliminated since it was founded in 1948 – and numbers have ballooned since the pandemic.

The IFS said the £17billion was not nearly enough to meet this commitment.

Welfare

What the manifesto says

All jobseekers will be stripped of their benefits if they don’t find work within four months or accept a job after two offers.

Reform says its welfare plans will save £15billion a year by getting a million people back to work.

Reality

There are big questions about whether this would motivate people into work or just risk pushing people into hardship.

Around 9.4 million people are economically inactive – which means they aren’t looking for work. But often this is due to caring responsibilities or long-term sickness.

Pensions

What the manifesto says

Reform has given a vague commitment to “review pension provision” which the party says is “riddled with complexity, huge cost and poor returns”. It doesn’t say when or how this would be done.

Reality

Mr Farage told reporters afterwards that he was committed to the triple lock, which sees the state pension rise in line with whichever is highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%.

But he said he believed the whole system needs to be reviewed.

Police and justice

What the manifesto says

Reform wants to bring in 40,000 new frontline police officers over five years, resulting in 300 bobbies per 100,000 people.

Reality

A survey from the Police Federation in March found 22% of officers are planning to resign in the next two years – up from 18% the previous year and 12% in 2021 – amid concerns over pay, mental health and low morale.

Net zero

What the manifesto says

Mr Farage claims Net Zero policies are pushing up people’s bills and vows to scrap key subsidies, including £10billion a year for renewable energy.

Instead, Reform wants to tax renewables, fast-track new North Sea oil and gas licences, and allow fracking licences on test sites for two years.

Reality

The UK has legally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to Net Zero by 2050 to stem the risks of climate change.

Reducing Britain’s renewables capacity risks increasing the reliance on imports of energy, such as Russian gas.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine sent household bills soaring – and the government has committed to making sure the country has greater energy security to protect from such shocks.

Defence spending

What the manifesto says

Mr Farage’s party says it will increase defence spending by 2.5% of Britain’s national output in three years and then to 3% in six.

Reality

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said in 2022 that increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 would require an additional £157billion over eight years. Reform has budgeted £14billion a year for its defence commitments

Families

What the manifesto says

The majority of mothers would prefer to stay at home if they could, Reform claims. It suggests front-loading child benefit for children aged 1-4 to let parents spend more time with their kids.

Reality

Concerns have been raised about the number of women that dropped out of the workforce in the pandemic due to caring responsibilities.

Suggesting women would rather stay at home undermines Reform’s desire to get people back to work.