Rishi Sunak might lose seat at election – as 4 in 10 able to vote tactically

Rishi Sunak could be at risk of losing his seat at the General Election as four in 10 voters say they’re prepared to vote tactically in his area to get the Tories out, research has revealed.

It would be the first time a serving Prime Minister has ever lost their own seat at a General Election if it played out on July 4. Mr Sunak holds a narrow lead of about 7% over Labour in his seat of Richmond and Northallerton so could be defeated if the 11.4% of voters planning to vote Lib Dem and 4.5% Green decide to vote tactically for Labour.

Liz Truss, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel are also all at risk of being defeated, with around a third of people in each of their constituencies willing to vote tactically.

Best for Britain has published a guide for voters setting out who they should vote for in their constituency to make sure the Conservatives are re-elected. The campaign group has carried out the research as the First Past the Post system means some voters’ preferred party may stand very little chance of winning in their area.

GetVoting.org has developed this tool. Just enter your postcode and it will show you which party to vote for to have the biggest impact on the final result.

Its huge survey of more than 40,000 people shows Labour’s massive lead in the polls is already made up of tactical voters. A fifth of people who say they are voting Labour and a third of those saying they will vote Lib Dem are doing so tactically, it found.

Among its recommendations, it is urging voters who are split between Labour and the Lib Dems to vote for Keir Starmer’s party in Aldershot, as both parties are on track to lose to the Tories.

Asked about the threat of Nigel Farage, Best for Britain said it is also making recommendations to stop “populists” and “those that sow division” from being elected. In Clacton the group is telling those who don’t want Mr Farage as an MP – who might be planning to vote Lib Dem or Greens – to vote for Labour to defeat the Reform UK leader.

Speaking at a press conference in central London, chief executive Naomi Smith said: “We really, really hate tactical voting. We shouldn’t have to do it. We should be able to vote for the party that we want to without any kind of fear that our vote won’t count.

“It just cannot be right that an MP or a government can be elected and secure near total power when 60 or 70% of the electorate didn’t vote for them. The UK is only in the company of Belarus and Russia in Europe to still be using this arcane voting system for national elections but until that changes, I’m afraid tactical voting will continue to be a feature of our elections.”

Best for Britain’s research is based on constituency-level MRP analysis of voting intention by Survation based on a sample of 42,269 GB adults polled between May 31 and June 13.