Students returning residence for summer season ‘may value Tories as much as 35 seats’
Students returning home from university for the summer holidays could cost the Tories up to 35 seats at the general election, a new analysis has found.
A study by the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) revealed a number of constituencies where returning students could ‘turn the tide’ on 4 July.
These seats include Tatton, which is being defended by Cabinet minister Esther McVey, and Surrey Heath, which was previously held by Michael Gove.
The study found 35 constituencies – all won by the Tories in 2019 – where the number of returning students could exceed the projected size of the majority there in a recent large seat-by-seat poll by YouGov.
In West Suffolk, which was previously held by Conservative former health secretary Matt Hancock, around 1,200 students could return for the summer holidays.
Similarly, 1,600 students could return to Mid Sussex, and 2,000 to Surrey Heath.
Hepi suggested most students will vote at their home addresses due to this year’s election taking place during the summer holidays, and because most students are only registered at their home address.
A study revealed a number of constituencies where returning students could ‘turn the tide’ on 4 July – including Tatton, which is being defended by Cabinet minister Esther McVey
PM Rishi Sunak pictured calling this year’s general election from Downing Street. The last general election held in July saw a Labour landslide in 1945
The study found 35 seats – all won by the Tories in 2019 – where the number of returning students could exceed the projected size of the majority there in a recent poll by YouGov
The study said: ‘It is possible returning students make a difference in these new marginals, particularly where Labour is the main challenger.
‘But the impact depends on a few unknown factors: how many students return before the election, how many turn out to vote (projected at around 68 per cent) and how many vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, or for other parties.’
Prior to this year, the last general election held in July saw a Labour landslide in which Clement Attlee swept to power to oust Winston Churchill in 1945.
Josh Freeman, Hepi’s policy manager and author of the analysis, said: ‘The 2024 general election will be unusual.
‘Most recent elections have taken place in term-time, giving Labour large majorities in constituencies with lots of student voters.
‘But in 2024, many of these students will go back to their home addresses.
‘Some of these happen to be the formerly safe seats the Conservatives are now rushing to defend.’
Chloe Field, the National Union of Students (NUS) vice-president for higher education, said: ‘By calling the election at a time when young people are highly politicised, highly engaged and desperate for change, the Prime Minister could have handed student voters not just the keys to university towns but to the country.
‘And it’s now up to all politicians to take note and give us a convincing offer: bring back maintenance grants, control rents, abolish tuition fees and give young people some hope and a reason to vote enthusiastically.’
