Polls present Labour heading for big win with Tories’ worst EVER defeat
Rishi Sunak‘s misery deepened tonight as a trio of mega-polls found the Tories on track for their worst ever result – and he could lose his ultra-safe seat.
Huge projections by YouGov, Savanta and More in Common – conducted using the so-called MRP technique – gave an unremittingly bleak picture of the PM’s prospects.
YouGov suggested that the Tories face being reduced to just 108 seats, which would be the worst performance in their 200-year history.
According to their MRP, Reform could get five constituencies – including the Clacton seat being contested by party leader Nigel Farage – having previously been projected by the firm to get none.
It also found a slew of current Cabinet ministers would be ousted – including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Richard Holden, and Alex Chalk.
However, an equivalent Savanta poll was even worse – suggesting the Conservatives would be reduced to just 53 seats and Mr Sunak himself would lose his Richmond & Northallerton constituency.
Their study projected an enormous 382-seat majority for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer‘s party winning a staggering 516 constituencies on July 4.
In a sign of the difficulty in making such projections, Reform was not seen as securing any seats in the Savanta MRP.
YouGov suggested that the Tories face being reduced to just 108 seats, which would be the worst performance in their 200-year history
An equivalent Savanta poll was even worse – suggesting the Conservatives would be reduced to just 53 seats and Rishi Sunak himself would lose his Richmond & Northallerton constituency
The third MRP published tonight, conducted by More In Common, found the Tories could end up with just 155 seats after July 4, with Sir Keir coasting into No10 with 406 Labour MPs.
The Lib Dems could emerge victorious in 49 constituencies, according to the research by More In Common for the News Agents podcast.
Their MRP also found Reform would not get a single seat.
That is despite a separate Survation poll released this afternoon suggesting Mr Farage will record a stunning win in Clacton.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: ‘The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in – with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.
‘Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now the Conservatives position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.
‘Labour on the other hand look set to inherit a historic majority while still remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.’
According to the MRP study from YouGov, Labour are on course for the seond-largest majority since the Second World War.
It also suggested the Tories are headed for a result well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.
In Scotland, the YouGov research showed Labour winning 28 seats, with the SNP falling to just 20 seats and the Tories dropping to five constituencies.
It also found the Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat in Wales, where Labour were shown to be on course to win 26 out of 32 seats.
Sir Keir’s party is poised take a record number of seats in London, with Labour set to win 63 out of 75 constituencies in the capital, according to the study.
Earlier, Mr Sunak seized on inflation finally falling back to the Bank of England‘s target as he tries to revive his election fortunes.
However, ministers have been increasingly open about their fears about the party’s prospects, with both Mel Stride and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies conceding today that Labour is almost certain to triumph.
Panicking Tories have been urging Mr Sunak to attack Mr Farage head-on, rather than trying to ignore the existential threat Reform poses.
The Brexit champion has admitted he cannot win this election, but insisted he wants to supplant the Tories as the real opposition – and is aiming to be PM by 2029.
The latest official figures showed headline CPI dropping to 2 per cent in May, from 2.3 per cent in April, paving the way for interest rate cuts.
It marks the first time inflation has been at the BoE’s goal since July 2021, before the cost-of-living crisis saw inflation shoot up – at one stage hitting levels not seen for 40 years.
More In Common’s MRP model predicted Labour will win 406 seats on 4 July – a majority of 162 – while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats
In a sign of the difficulty in making such projections, Reform was not seen as securing any seats by Savanta
Mr Sunak seized on the data to claim that inflation is ‘back to normal’ and Brits will ‘start to feel the benefits’. But he warned that putting Labour in power could put ‘progress at risk’.
The reductions will give Threadneedle Street pause for thought as it considers interest rates at the MPC meeting tomorrow.
However, most economists believe rates will be held at 5.25, with the July 4 election regarded as hampering decisions.
