The 13 Tory Cabinet ministers to lose seats as Rishi Sunak fails to maneuver polls

On Jun 19, 2024

Top Tories Jeremy Hunt, Alex Chalk and Penny Mordaunt face being ousted at the General Election, a mega-poll has found.

In devastating news for the PM, YouGov’s second MRP poll has predicted 13 Tories who are serving Cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats. Its last poll predicted 12 would be ousted. The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s projection. Labour would win 425 seats, up by 223.

The bombshell poll of around 40,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak is on track to lead the party to its worst result in history. Other Cabinet ministers who would lose their seats include Grant Shapps, Mel Stride, Victoria Prentis, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.

It predicts Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will win five seats. It was projected to not win a single seat in YouGov’s last MRP poll but return as leader is only proving to make things more difficult for the Tories.

The Lib Dems are tipped to win 67 seats, up from just 11 at the election almost five years ago. The SNP faces a tricky result in Scotland, winning just 20 MPs, down from 48. The Green Party is expected to get 2 and Plaid Cymru are expected to get 4.

YouGov interviewed 36,161 adults in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

Rishi Sunak has failed to improve his party’s standing in the polls as the election date looms closer

List of projected Cabinet casualties

Jeremy Hunt – Chancellor – Godalming and Ash

Majority: 10,720

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Grant Shapps – Defence Secretary – Welwyn & Hatfield

Majority: 10,773

Vulnerable to: Labour

Penny Mordaunt – Leader of the Commons – Portsmouth North

Majority: 15,780

Vulnerable to: Labour

Mark Harper – Transport Secretary – Forest of Dean

Majority: 15,869

Vulnerable to: Labour

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is also at risk of losing his seat
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AFP via Getty Images)

Alex Chalk – Justice Secretary – Cheltenham

Majority: 1,421

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Mel Stride – Work and Pensions Secretary – Central Devon

Majority: 17,300

Vulnerable to: Labour

Johnny Mercer – Veterans Affairs Minister – Plymouth Moor View

Majority: 13,262

Vulnerable to: Labour

Simon Hart – Chief Whip – Caerfyrddin

Majority: 4,529

Vulnerable to: Plaid

Victoria Prentis – Attorney General – Banbury

Majority: 13,799

Vulnerable to: Labour

David TC Davies – Welsh Secretary – Monmouthshire

Majority: 10,837

Vulnerable to: Labour

Gillian Keegan – Education Secretary – Chichester

Majority: 19,622

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Michael Tomlinson – Illegal Migration Minister – Mid Dorset and North Poole

Majority: 16,570

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Richard Holden – Tory Deputy Chair – Basildon and Billericay

Majority: 20,749

Vulnerable to: Reform UK

*Majorities are estimates of 2019 results adjusted for 2024 boundary changes