Rishi Sunak faces ultimate BBC election debate towards Keir Starmer

Rishi Sunak is gearing up for the critical final TV election debate tonight as he struggles to avert a Tory meltdown.

The PM will face off against Keir Starmer on BBC One with barely a week left until the country goes to the ballot boxes. 

The primetime head-to-head clash in Nottingham is seen as Mr Sunak’s last major opportunity to revive his fortunes after a nightmare campaign.  

But the scale of the challenge for the premier was underlined this evening, with more grim megapolls showing the Tories on track to get smashed – and one even putting them in third behind the Lib Dems.

We Think research conducted using the so-called MRP methodology suggested Labour could get a majority of 280 – the biggest in modern political history. 

That poll saw the Conservatives reduced to just 76 MPs.

But a Find Out Now survey carried out with Electoral Calculus projected an even more dramatic outcome. It found the Tories could be slashed to just 60 seats, behind the Lib Dems with 71. 

In that scenario, the Conservatives would not be the official opposition and Nigel Farage‘s Reform would have 18 seats. 

MRPs are now widely regarded as ‘gold standard’ in the polling industry, but they have been suggesting widely differing outcomes depending on assumptions such as likelihood to vote. They also take a longer period to conduct, meaning some of the research dates back weeks.  

The enormous win for Sir Keir is being predicted despite signs that he is deeply unpopular with Brits.

Mr Sunak is desperately trying to change his fortunes as the election betting scandal continues to rage

The PM is gearing up for a critical final BBC TV debate against Keir Starmer (pictured) this evening

A Find Out Now survey carried out with Electoral Calculus projected the Tories could be slashed to just 60 seats, behind the Lib Dems on 71

The overall figures in the Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus MRP are for a Labour landslide with a majority of 250 seats. That would be bigger than Tony Blair’s win, and only exceeded by the 1931 result

Separate We Think research suggested Labour could get a majority of 280 – the biggest in modern political history

Mr Sunak is desperately trying to change his fortunes as the election betting scandal continues to rage.

He has also struggled to shake off the D-Day debacle.

Meanwhile, Tories fear that Reform will split the right-wing vote next week, opening the door for Labour to rack up seats.

Allies of the PM hope that messages about the danger of a Labour ‘supermajority’ is starting to hit home, while there have been tentative signs that Mr Farage’s surge might have peaked after he controversially claimed the West ‘provoked’ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus said they had ‘calibrated’ results of their own polling to ‘match the average of recent national polls’, after it suggested the Tories were two points behind Reform.

The overall figures in that MRP are for a Labour landslide with a majority of 250 seats. That would be bigger than Tony Blair’s win, and only exceeded by the 1931 result.

The Conservatives’ tally would be the worst since at least 1900 – before universal suffrage.

Mr Sunak would be among a swathe of senior ministers to lose their own seats. 

Meanwhile, Reform would pick up 18, with Mr Farage finally entering Parliament alongside Richard Tice.

The wider picture is of apathy among the public. An Ipsos survey indicated that 75 per cent were dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak, with just 25 per cent satisfied.

But Sir Keir’s figures were not much better, with 52 per cent negative and 33 per cent positive about his performance. 

An Ipsos survey indicated that 75 per cent were dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak, with just 25 per cent satisfied

There have been tentative signs that Nigel Farage’s (pictured) surge might have peaked after he controversially claimed the West ‘provoked’ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine