Rishi Sunak predicted to lose seat in ballot and 20 Tory Cabinet ministers ousted
Top Tories Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden and Kemi Badenoch face being ousted in an election wipeout, a mega-poll has found.
Twenty of the ministers who sit around the Cabinet table are set to be kicked out.
The Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71, according to the projection by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus. Labour are set to win 450 seats, which would give them an unprecedented majority of 250.
Reform UK could win 18 seats, including those of Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson.
Ministers on course to be ousted include the Prime Minister, who has a whopping 24,331 votes majority in Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorks. Other potential Cabinet casualties are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.
Rishi Sunak to lose seat as 20 Tory Cabinet ministers ousted, mega-poll predicts
Michelle Donelan, Victoria Atkins, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Esther McVey and Johnny Mercer are also at risk.
Among the few Tories expected to survive are James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Laura Trott, who could all potentially become candidates in a leadership contest.
The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method was used to successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.
Find Out Now interviewed 19,993 adults in Britain online between June 14 and 24.
List of 20 projected Cabinet casualties
Rishi Sunak – Prime Minister – Richmond and Northallerton
Majority: 24,331
Vulnerable to: Labour
Oliver Dowden – Deputy Prime Minister – Hertsmere
Majority: 22,980
Vulnerable: Labour
Jeremy Hunt – Chancellor – Godalming and Ash
Majority: 10,720
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Grant Shapps – Defence Secretary – Welwyn & Hatfield
Majority: 10,773
Vulnerable to: Labour
Alex Chalk – Justice Secretary – Cheltenham
Majority: 1,421
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Michelle Donelan – Education Secretary – Melksham and Devizes
Majority:
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Victoria Atkins – Health Secretary – Louth and Horncastle
Majority: 27,883
Vulnerable to: Reform
Penny Mordaunt – Leader of the Commons – Portsmouth North
Majority: 15,780
Vulnerable to: Labour
Kemi Badenoch – Business Secretary – North West Essex
Majority: 23,227
Vulnerable to: Labour
Claire Coutinho – Energy Secretary – East Surrey
Majority: 20.565
Vulnerable to: Labour
Mel Stride – Work and Pensions Secretary – Central Devon
Majority: 17,300
Vulnerable to: Labour
Gillian Keegan – Education Secretary – Chichester
Majority: 19,622
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Richard Holden – Tory Deputy Chair – Basildon and Billericay
Majority: 20,749
Vulnerable to: Labour
David TC Davies – Welsh Secretary – Monmouthshire
Majority: 10,837
Vulnerable to: Labour
Simon Hart – Chief Whip – Caerfyrddin
Majority: 4,529
Vulnerable to: Plaid
Victoria Prentis – Attorney General – Banbury
Majority: 13,799
Vulnerable to: Labour
John Glen – Paymaster General – Salisbury
Majority: 18,848
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Esther McVey – Common Sense Minister – Tatton
Majority: 19,281
Vulnerable to: Labour
Andrew Mitchell – International Development Minister – Sutton Coldfield
Majority: 19,272
Vulnerable to: Labour
Johnny Mercer – Veterans Affairs Minister – Plymouth Moor View
Majority: 13,262
Vulnerable to: Reform UK
*Majorities are estimates of 2019 results adjusted for 2024 boundary changes
