Bombshell new ballot revises Biden’s election probabilities

Even fewer voters believe Joe Biden is mentally up to the task of being president for another four years after his disastrous debate, polling shows.

Voters indicated his mental and physical fitness appeared to have deteriorated since 2020 during the prime-time event Thursday night. 

Ipsos polled about 5,000 likely voters in the days before the debate, and followed up with about half of them on Thursday and Friday after it.

Biden still has a shot at winning the election as though voters agreed the debate was a disaster, only a few in the poll said it would change their vote.

They broadly agreed President Biden, 81, performed badly and 60 per cent said his opponent Donald Trump did better in Atlanta on Thursday.

Only 21 per cent said Biden did the better of the two bitter rivals and 19 per cent said they didn’t know who came out on top.

About 73 per cent of debate watchers said Biden’s performance was poor or terrible and just eight per cent said it was excellent or good.

Trump didn’t exactly win the debate, however, as only 40 per cent rated him good or excellent, 25 per cent mixed, and 33 per cent was poor or terrible.

Biden took a moderate hit in how many voters were concerned about his age, but it was already so low it couldn’t get much worse.

‘Before the debate, 27 per cent of likely voters rated Biden as good or excellent when it came to his mental fitness to be president,’ Ipsos said.

‘Following the debate, that level declined to 20 per cent. The decline was steepest among Democratic respondents, going from 56 per cent before the debate to 42 per cent after the debate.’

One worrying sign for the president was that black voters, a group Biden needs to win as they overwhelmingly supported him in 2020, dropped 15 per cent in their confidence of his mental fitness.

Voters aged 65 or older were 11 per cent less confident, and feelings among those with a Bachelor’s degree or better fell 10 per cent.

Voters also dropped their confidence in Biden’s physical ability to be president from 21 to 15 per cent. 

‘Ratings of Trump’s mental (39 per cent pre-debate, 41 per cent post-debate) and physical (43 per cent, 45 per cent) fitness were stable,’ Ipsos said.

However, when asked about their voting intentions, very few respondents said the debate would alter who they would actually support at the election.

Biden’s support eased from 46 to 44 per cent, and Trump was dead still at 44 per cent before and after, as was Robert Kennedy Jr at 18 per cent.

‘Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just four per cent are giving less consideration to voting for Biden,’ Ipsos elaborated.

‘In comparison, two per cent are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate.’

The president on Friday morning rebuffed calls from dozens of prominent Democrats for him to step aside and let a younger candidate challenge Trump.

He followed up his day on defense by adding some star power to his cause by joining pop icon Elton John on stage. 

The pair spoke at the grand opening ceremony for the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center in Greenwich Village, New York City.

Biden said the June 28, 1969, Stonewall Riots ‘marked a turning point for civil rights in America and inspired the hearts of millions of people around the world’.

He said the Stonewall Inn, and the riots against a police raid there 55 years ago ‘remains a symbol of a legacy and leadership in the LGBTQ+ community’.

‘Its your love for each other and your community that brought this center to life,’ he said.

Biden was joined by New York Governor Kathy Hochul and local senator Kirsten Gillibrand at the event.

‘He’s the best! He’s a fighter!’ Gillibrand said of Biden as they danced on stage.

John gave Biden a shoutout during his speech, in which said the fight for freedom and equality for LGBTQ+ people was ongoing.

‘I can say as a proud English, gay man, that this is one of the greatest honors of my life to be here today,’ he said. 

‘Fifty-five years ago, in this sacred spot of the Stonewall Uprising, gay activists stood strong and ignited a movement that has changed history for the better. 

‘As President Biden has reminded us today… do we stand up for our vision and our values, or let misinformation and senseless scapegoating turn back the clock? No f**king way,’

Hochul added: ‘When there are assaults on LGBTQ rights across America, we are the vanguard, we are the fighters.

‘The torch has been passed to us as New Yorkers. Passed to the next generation.’

The Stonewall riots followed decades of oppressive policies against the gay community around the US, where homosexual relations were illegal in all but one state.

Police cracked down with brutal tactics and that night in Stonewall was no exception as they dragged staff and patrons outside.

But this time they fought back, prompting six days of rioting and protests around Greenwich Village that spawned organized activist movements that eventually led to better rights for the gay community.

The uprising is considered a watershed moment in LGBTQI+ equality and was commemorated with the first pride parade a year later.

Biden, while a senator, voted for the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act that declared states did not have to recognize gay marriages, and defined marriage as between a man and a woman.

Years later in 2012 while he was vice president, Biden said he supported gay marriage, even before President Barrack Obama did.

As president, Biden strengthened anti-discrimination laws for LGBTQI+ people and removed the ban on transgender Americans serving in the military.

The Ipsos poll also surveyed respondents on their opinions of how the debate was run by CNN and moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bush.

About 40 per cent said the moderators did an average job, 43 per cent said they were good or excellent, and 15 per cent bad or terrible.

A plurality of debate watchers said the debate did a mixed job at covering a range of specific issues, including foreign policy (44 per cent), abortion policy (41 per cent), and how to build the American economy (44 per cent),’ Ipsos said.

‘On most issues, debate watchers were more likely to feel the debate did a terrible or poor job than an excellent or good job.

‘Particularly on political extremism or polarization (42 per cent poor/terrible vs 12 per cent excellent/good) and reducing crime and promoting public safety (42 per cent vs 10 per cent).’