How former Conservative voters might smash Keir Starmer’s lead
Labour‘s lead over the Tories could dip into ‘single figures’ if enough disaffected voters return to the Conservative fold, a new Lord Ashcroft poll finds today.
The findings suggest there remains a lot to play for ahead of tomorrow’s General Election and that a Labour supermajority can yet be avoided.
The former Tory Treasurer’s latest survey, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, found Labour’s vote share lead has fallen by two percentage points to 19 since last week.
But this could plummet further to 13 if former Tory backers who are undecided or don’t intend to vote return to the Conservative fold.
And that lead could even fall below ten points if enough of those who have switched from the Tories to Reform UK return to the party, it predicts.
The findings suggest there remains a lot to play for ahead of tomorrow’s General Election and that a Labour supermajority can yet be avoided
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pictured at the DCS group distribution centre during a Conservative general election campaign event on July 2
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer pictured at Norton Cannes Community Centre on July 2
Lord Ashcroft stressed this was ‘unlikely’ since three-quarters of those intending to back Reform have suggested they won’t change their minds. However, the poll of more than 5,000 people will raise Tory hopes that the party could avoid a wipeout.
The findings will also give fresh impetus to Tory efforts on the final day of campaigning to persuade disaffected former supporters to return and head off a Labour landslide.
It came amid warnings that former Conservative voters and those still undecided risk sleepwalking into ten years of an ‘unchecked and unaccountable’ Labour government that would hike taxes if they don’t return to the Tory fold.
Previous surveys have suggested the Tories could be reduced to a derisory rump of less than 100 MPs, and that the Liberal Democrats could even come close to winning as many seats.
It would mark a dramatic turnaround from the 365 seats won in 2019 under Boris Johnson. But Lord Ashcroft’s poll found that nearly eight in ten Reform supporters say a Labour supermajority would be bad for Britain. Some 72 per cent of those who voted Tory in 2019 said the same.
Overall more people think Labour winning a supermajority would be a negative as opposed to a positive – 36 per cent think it would be a good thing compared to 37 per cent who don’t.
Meanwhile more than four in ten voters said they haven’t ‘definitely decided’ how they will vote – suggesting that millions of ballots are still up for grabs with just 24 hours until polls open.
And, in a sign that Rishi Sunak‘s last-ditch campaign push is bearing fruit, the survey found that Labour leader Keir Starmer‘s lead over him in terms of who would make the best premier fell three points.
Labour’s overall vote share was down two points to 38, while a separate megapoll by Redfield & Wilton found it has fallen by one point with the Conservatives up three.
It would mark a dramatic turnaround from the 365 seats won in 2019 under Boris Johnson
And, in a sign that Rishi Sunak ‘s last-ditch campaign push is bearing fruit, the survey found that Labour leader Keir Starmer ‘s lead over him in terms of who would make the best premier fell three points
In a sign that many voters are not convinced by the alternatives to the Tories on offer, Lord Ashcroft’s poll found that nearly two in three voters (64 per cent) were ‘fairly’ or ‘very pessimistic’ in general about Britain’s future regardless of who wins the Election.
Just 25 per cent said they were ‘very’ or ‘fairly optimistic’.
It found that Sir Keir’s lead over Mr Sunak in terms of who voters think would make the best prime minister was also down three points to 18.
More than four in ten (42 per cent) said they ‘don’t know’ when asked this question, while only 58 per cent of respondents said they have ‘definitely decided’ who they will vote for.
While Labour’s vote share was down to 38 points from 40, the Tories remained on 19.
Reform UK was up one to 18, the Lib Dems were up one to 11 and the Greens were down one to 8 per cent.
Public opposes Farage on Russia
More than two-thirds of voters disagree with Nigel Farage‘s comments about the West being to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – including nearly half of his own supporters.
Lord Ashcroft’s poll found 68 per cent of all voters think Ukraine ‘had every right to try to join Nato and the EU’.
They also said it would have been ‘wrong for the West to discourage those ambitions’ over fears of provoking Vladimir Putin.
More than two-thirds of voters disagree with Nigel Farage ‘s comments about the West being to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – including nearly half of his own supporters
They also said it would have been ‘wrong for the West to discourage those ambitions’ over fears of provoking Vladimir Putin
This included 77 per cent of Tories, 78 per cent of Labour backers and 47 per cent of people who say they’ll vote Reform.
Just 12 per cent of all voters said the ‘West could and should have discouraged’ Ukraine from trying to join Nato and the EU because the move would provoke Putin.
Reform leader Mr Farage has been accused of ‘cuddling up to the Kremlin’ over comments he made two weeks ago.
Mr Farage told the BBC that the West had ‘provoked’ Putin into invading Ukraine after allowing more eastern European nations to join Nato and the EU and by accepting Kyiv’s desire to start talks.
