Voters head to polls in 22C sunshine in South however 50mph winds in North

On Jul 4, 2024

Published: 08:21, 4 July 2024 | Updated: 09:46, 4 July 2024

The UK will see a national weather divide on General Election day, with 22C (72F) sunshine in southern England but 50mph winds and rain in the North and Scotland.

South-eastern parts of the country especially areas around London will experience the brightest and warmest weather today as voters head to polling stations.

But strong winds and chillier temperatures will hit further north as well as showers in West and North West Scotland, North West England and Northern Ireland.

Most of the day’s rainfall is expected in North West Scotland, and there were even reports of snow this morning on the tops of some mountains in the Highlands.

The Met Office said a strong jet stream in the Atlantic will maintain a changeable theme to the weather which is expected to remain unsettled for days to come.

The jet stream is running across the UK at about 185mph which is very fast for the time of year and will be driving various weather systems as the week continues.

Voters outside a polling station near Battersea Power Station in London on a sunny day today

Jackie and Alan Ward at their polling station caravan in Duxford, Cambridgeshire, today

A man hangs a polling station sign on a mobile unit at a Lidl car park in Loughborough today

Much of the UK will be on the cooler side of the jet, meaning temperatures will be around or just below average – but it will feel fairly warm in sunshine in the South.

Does the weather affect election turnout and the Labour vote?

Voter turnout is not generally affected by weather conditions in the UK, records suggest.

According to the Parliament website, despite the last general election in 2019 being the wettest since records began in 1931, turnout was actually higher (67.3 per cent) than in 2001 (59.4 per cent) and 2005 (61.4 per cent) when polling day fell in June and May respectively.

But a research paper released by University of Copenhagen political scientists last year surveyed turnout in 15 countries and found election day ‘rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimetre of rain, while more sunshine increases turnout’.

However, the impact of the weather on turnout may be lessened in the UK with 25 per cent of people now doing postal voting – up from 2 per cent a few decades ago.

There is also a popular idea that good weather can help bring out more Labour voters.

Some cite the last July election in 1945, when it was a sunny day with 27C highs and Labour won with a landslide majority of 146 seats – upsetting the odds when Winston Churchill was expected to get in.

But others point out that Labour’s Harold Wilson won on a wet day in both 1964 and 1974, and there appears to be no proven correlation between rain and voting behaviour.

Liam Eslick, meteorologist at the Met Office, said: ‘It’s going to be quite a windy day across much of the UK.

‘The strongest winds are going to be towards Northern Ireland, the western parts of Scotland and northern England.

‘It’s going to be a windy day for most people but it is going to be bright for central and southern England as well as Wales.’

He added: ‘Where you are out of the wind, it will feel rather warm and even pleasant in the sunshine as well, but the further north you go – it is going to be quite chilly and fresh day for many.’

The winds arrived overnight, bringing a blustery day in northern areas today.

Met Office chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said: ‘Strong winds are expected on Thursday, with Scotland bearing the brunt.

‘Inland areas in Scotland could see gusts of 30mph to 40mph, whilst coastal areas and hills could experience gales with gusts of 40mph to 50mph.

‘Along with that wind, the West and North West of Scotland will also see blustery showers, which will perhaps merge into longer spells of rain later.

‘A few showers are also likely across Northern Ireland, Wales and northern England, but southern England should remain dry with sunny spells.

‘It will feel cooler in the damp North West, but temperatures will be nearer average in the South and South West. That rain is expected to continue in parts of Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland overnight.’

The strong winds across Scotland and northern England will then ease through tomorrow morning, bringing a breezy and showery afternoon for those areas.

In the South, cloud and outbreaks of rain will spread east through tomorrow, bringing some possibly heavy rain across central and southern England and South Wales.

Between 20mm (0.8in) to 40mm (1.6in) of rain could fall within 12 to 18 hours in places.

Then the weekend will see the weather remain unsettled and cool for the time of year, but there will be some sunshine at times which will see temperatures rise a little.

An active jet stream (shown in pink) is running across the UK at about 185mph which is very strong for the time of year and will be driving various weather systems as the week continues

Early rain over the East and South East of England on Saturday should soon clear, with the weekend then featuring a mixture of sunshine and showers, some of which could be heavy with a risk of hail or thunder.

Forecasters added that more persistent rain is possible at times in northern Scotland, while areas of South West England and Wales are likely to remain the driest overall.

Most areas will feel breezy, with strong winds possible in the far South East of England.

It comes after the UK saw less rainfall than expected in June but the average temperature across the month was below 13C, despite the recent mini-heatwave in some areas.

The Met Office said 55.1mm of rain fell across the country last month, 29 per cent less than the long-term average, while Wales and England saw around half of their expected average amounts.

But this did not seem to translate into more generally warmer weather as the average UK mean temperature for June was 12.9C, which was 0.4C below the long-term meteorological average.

The lower June temperatures are in stark contrast to those seen the month prior, where an average temperature of 13.1C saw the warmest May in records dating back to 1884.

It also comes after the UK had its wettest spring since 1986 and the sixth wettest on record.