Tory large beasts brace for electoral carnage after exit ballot

Top Tories are bracing to be swept away in Keir Starmer‘s red tide today as election results roll in.

Moments after ballot stations closed at 10pm, the dramatic exit poll was released – showing Sir Keir winning 410 of the 650 seats. That would be a majority of 170 – just short of the 179 achieved by Tony Blair.

The Tories are expected to be slashed from the 365 secured less than five years ago to just 131 – their worst performance in modern political history. 

A host of big beasts, including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt could fall victim to the purge. 

Welsh Secretary David Davies has already conceded defeat and the Lib Dems claim they have defeated Education Secretary Gillian Keegan in Chichester.

Party chair Ric Holden is in a desperate struggle for Basildon & Billericay, with a recount and claims there are only 20 votes in it.  

Mr Sunak is expected to announce he is quitting as leader in the morning, although he would stay on until a replacement is chosen.  

In the first tangible evidence of the hammering, Labour‘s Heidi Alexander took ex-Cabinet minister Robert Buckland‘s Swindon South seat with a 9,000 majority. 

Altogether the Lib Dems are projected to get 61 MPs – and Nigel Farage‘s Reform insurgents could have 13 after effectively leeching millions of votes from the Conservatives. 

Lee Anderson has become the first MP ever elected for the party, with a near-7,000 majority in Ashfield. 

Mr Farage himself taking Clacton, while Conservative sources in Great Yarmouth confirmed they expected Reform to triumph there.

The SNP would be slashed to 10, meaning they would no longer be the biggest party in Scotland. 

Although the exit survey, run for broadcasters by polling guru Sir John Curtice, is not guaranteed to be exact, it has accurately reflected the outcome in the past few elections.

Sir Keir gave a muted reaction to the bombshell, posting on social media: ‘To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party – thank you.’ 

But his allies were far less restrained, with Lord Mandelson gloating that he was ‘gobsmacked’ and an ‘electoral meteor’ had ‘struck planet Earth’. He said it would have required a ‘superman’ to save the Tories and Rishi Sunak ‘is not superman’.

Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner – who could be set to become deputy PM within hours – said the numbers were ‘encouraging’ and praised Sir Keir’s leadership. 

Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting was in tears as he was told the figures on live TV. 

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said ‘the people have voted for change’. 

Tories immediately descended into bitter recriminations, with demands for Rishi Sunak to quit.

A former Cabinet minister – who regards their own significant majority as under threat – said Mr Sunak had ‘knifed’ Boris Johnson and would be remembered as the ‘worst PM ever’. 

But Sir Robert gave a stark warning against the Tories lurching to the right, saying the party risked being like ‘bald men fighting over a comb’ if it treated politics as ‘performance art’ and tried to outflank Reform. 

In other rollercoaster developments tonight:

• In the first real result, Labour’s Bridget Phillipson retained Houghton & Sunderland South with a boosted majority of just over 7,000 – but Reform surged into second place with more than 11,600 votes;
• Reform also picked up significant support in Blyth & Ashington, which narrowly lost the race to declare first, with nearly 11,000 votes, albeit behind Labour’s Ian Lavery on 20,000; 
• And in Newcastle Central Reform came second, eating into Labour support without managing to overhaul them;
• However, it is unclear that Reform is receiving enough support to meet the high estimate in the exit poll, and have already failed in a number of seats they were forecast to secure; 
• There are early signs that turnout could be lower than at the last election in 2019; 
• The Lib Dems are claiming victory in Tunbridge Wells, which has been Tory since the seat was created in the 1970s; 
• The 2024 general election results in full: Live maps and charts 

Less than an hour before the exit poll dropped, Downing Street released a dissolution honours list – sending seven Tories and eight Labour politicians to the Lords. They include Theresa May, Rishi Sunak’s chief aide Liam Booth-Smith, Chris Grayling and former 1922 committee chair Graham Brady.

Harriet Harman and Margaret Beckett are among those on the Labour list – despite Sir Keir having committed to abolishing the Upper House. 

A dire campaign for Mr Sunak came stuttering to a halt last night, with the PM making a series more defensive visits in the South East.

He now faces the prospect that he could be out of Downing Street by tomorrow morning, if the results pan out as badly as anticipated in the coming hours.

Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson told Sky News that it looked like a ‘massacre’. 

A host of big beasts including Mr Hunt in Goldaming & Ash and Mr Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield will now be waiting nervously to see if they fall victim to the Labour and Lib Dem onslaught.  

There are fears those with the highest majorities could end up most vulnerable, with Home Secretary James Cleverly and even ex-PM Liz Truss thought to be at risk. 

The Tories could quickly plunge into a dangerous new phase of crisis, with questions over whether it can even survive amid the challenge from Reform. 

Sir John Curtice told the BBC: ‘It looks as though Reform may win more seats than many polls suggested.

‘This is largely because, not only has the Conservative vote fallen far in seats they previously held, but also because Reform has advanced most in areas people voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.

‘However, how many seats Reform will win is highly uncertain – our model suggests there are many places where they have some – but a relatively low – chance of winning.’

Mr Farage hailed signs of a breakthrough after Reform pushed the Tories into third place in two early constituency results.

On a video posted to X he said: ‘It’s midnight, there are two results in from the north-east of England that put Reform on 30 per cent of the vote, that is way more than any possible prediction or projection. It is almost unbelievable.

‘And what does it mean? It means we’re going to win seats, many many seats I think right now across the country.

‘But to watch the TV coverage it’s almost comical. There’s not a single representative on there from Reform UK, mainstream media are in denial just as much as our political parties.

‘This is going to be six million votes-plus. This, folks, is huge.’

A Conservative spokesman said they had to wait for the full outcome, but added: ‘If these results are correct it is clear that Starmer and Angela Rayner will be in Downing Street tomorrow.’ 

Conservatives with big majorities had become increasingly nervous during the day, despite CCHQ claiming that higher-than-expected turnout could help them.

One former Cabinet minister told MailOnline: ‘There appears to be a bigger turnout than normal in some of my areas. Not all though.

‘That would seem to indicate a determination on the part of the electorate to make their views heard, almost certainly likely to be against the Tories.’

Former Labour leader Lord Neil Kinnock said the exit poll’s landslide prediction was ‘the greatest comeback since Lazarus’.

The former Labour leader told ITV News: ‘A gain of 208, according to the exit poll, which is attributable directly to Keir Starmer and what he’s achieved in four years, two of which of course were during the lockdown, or the virtual lockdown when the one thing that opposition leaders depend on – contact with the public – was absent.

‘It’s the biggest comeback since Lazarus.’

He went on: ‘I must say I’m just ecstatic about the fact that an entirely dependable, fully grown-up guy, Keir Starmer, and his wife, are going to go through that door tomorrow. I have unalloyed and unreserved delight.’

Mr Sunak took a huge political gamble and shocked Westminster by triggering the election on May 22, rather than waiting until the Autumn as had been widely expected.

It initially looked to be paying off, with early policies from the Tory campaign – such as national citizen service – seeming to cut through.

In a big moment, Mr Farage responded by ruling out standing as a Reform candidate, admitting he did not have time to put together a campaign.

But even then the Tories did not see a real bounce in the polls. The Tories lost key legislation including Mr Sunak’s flagship smoking ban during the ‘wash-up’ as Parliament was dissolved for the campaign.

And then a grim week in early June saw things go spectacularly downhill, with Mr Farage dropping the bombshell that had changed his mind and was taking over the leadership of Reform as well as standing to be MP for Clacton.

Although Mr Sunak was seen as landing blows on Sir Keir over tax during their first TV debate on June 4, disaster struck when the PM opted to return early from D-Day anniversary commemorations in France to conduct an interview with ITV.

A subsequent grovelling apology did not prevent Mr Farage and opponents seizing on the blunder, which struck right at the heart of the Tory goal of shoring up the core vote among older generations.

With polls already showing Reform eating into Tory support with potent attacks on immigration, Mr Sunak was then engulfed in another scandal.

It emerged that his closest Parliamentary aide, Craig Williams had successfully placed bets on the date of the snap election – although he insisted he did not have any inside information.

Other candidates and top party officials were then dragged into the allegations, which proved particularly toxic with the public. 

Mr Sunak was memorably challenged on the issue during TV appearances, admitting he was ‘incredibly angry’. But he was seen as taking far too long to withdraw support for candidates facing allegations.

With some polls even showing Reform ahead of the Tories, CCHQ shifted tactics to warn of the threat of a divided Right handing Labour a ‘supermajority’ with untrammeled power.

That together with controversial remarks from Mr Farage about the West ‘provoking’ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and revelations about unsavoury comments by a series of Reform candidates looked to have stopped the bleeding.

But after a bruising six weeks Labour’s huge advantage was intact, and the only significant change was that the Tories had lost ground to Reform. 

By yesterday, despite Mr Sunak’s claim he was ‘fighting hard for every vote’, his close ally Mel Stride was effectively acknowledging the Conservatives would lose – an unprecedented step. 

The Work and Pensions Secretary said Labour would get an ‘extraordinary landslide on a scale that has probably never, ever been seen in this country before’. 

As tension built through election day, the Tories claimed a higher-than-expected turnout had left them with a ‘MUCH better chance’ than cataclysmic polls had suggested.

An email to Conservative supporters, signed from the ‘CCHQ Data Team’, read: ‘We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected.

‘That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested. So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out.’

Queues of people were seen at polling stations today as the requirement for voters to bring correct photo identification – such as a passport or driving licence – was enforced at a UK general election for the first time.

There was a bungle at a Glasgow polling station this morning as voters were met with posters listing the wrong instructions, which erroneously advised the ranking of candidates in order of preference.

This is how ballots are cast in local elections in Scotland, which use the single transferable vote system. But general elections use the first-past-the-post system, which requires voters to put a single ‘X’ next to their chosen candidate.

Glasgow City Council explained the error was spotted ‘very soon’ after the polling station opened at 7am and the posters were replaced with the correct information. It said no-one had been disenfranchised as voters’ first preferences would be used from the affected ballots.

Cabinet minister Kemi Badenoch this afternoon blasted her own local council for having ‘potentially disenfranchised’ thousands of postal voters who did not receive their ballot papers.

The Business Secretary hit out at Uttlesford District Council for ‘forgetting’ to send postal votes to 2,600 people in her North West Essex seat.

Prior to polls opening this morning, Rishi Sunak made an 11th-hour plea for voters to prevent a ‘socialist supermajority’ wrecking Britain, as he repeated his warning against handing Sir Keir ‘unchecked’ power.