Experts cannot agree on whether or not UK is getting ‘warmth dome’ or drab downpours
Brits are used to chaotic weather all year round.
From heavy rain to pavement-cracking sunshine, the last few weeks have been a perfect example of that. But looking further ahead, even more uncertainty is on the horizon – with several weather experts and outlets failing to agree on what’s happening next.
The team at Exacta Weather claims we’re getting a “heat dome” with temperatures of 35c and above, while the normally-solid Met Office has tried to dash those hopes with predictions of biblical rain.
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And then WX Charts sits somewhere in the middle, with its data showing that we’re getting a bit of both . . .
So, where does that leave us and why can’t the people paid to figure out the weather agree on, well, any of it? And why do most long-term forecasts look at the UK as a whole, rather than specific areas like the normal daily predictions?
Well, according to the Met Office: “When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play – small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time. Therefore while we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts.
![Or could we be getting a 'heat dome'?](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article33227419.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/1_AGP_MDM_260624_02.jpg)
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“For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole. Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK.
“Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.”
Exacta claims to get its forecasts from a variety of different sources, as has carved out a good track record on weather predictions in recent months, while WX Charts provides satellite imagery which changes several times per day.
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And according to the experts at Tempest.Earth . . . it very much depends on who is reading the data.
Michele Redmon said: “Like all scientists, meteorologists understand that their predictions will inevitably have some margin of error. A meteorologist’s access to weather instruments, up-to-date data, and experience level may also influence their success rate.
“No matter how good the meteorologist is, the weather is inherently unpredictable to some degree. The answers to how accurate are long-range weather forecasts versus how accurate are short-range weather forecasts will be very different no matter who the meteorologist is.”
So, are we getting a heat dome or downpours? Who knows.
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