Around 5,500 prisoners set to be launched early in Government scheme

Around 1,700 prisoners serving sentences of more than five years will be let out early as part of a scheme that the Government admits may increase crime and damage public trust in justice.

Around 5,500 offenders will be released early in September and October under the controversial plan to ease the prison overcrowding crisis.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood made a statement to the Commons yesterday, the first of the new Government, on the ’emergency facing our prisons’.

She said the temporary measures – which will see a reduction in the proportion of their sentence many prisoners must serve in jail from 50 to 40 per cent – will be reviewed in 18 months. 

But she was challenged by Liberal Democrat justice spokesman Alistair Carmichael, who said ’18 months is a very long time for temporary measures’.

Around 1,700 prisoners serving sentences of more than five years will be let out early as part of a scheme that the Government admits may increase crime and damage public trust in justice (stock)

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood made a statement to the Commons yesterday, the first of the new Government, on the ’emergency facing our prisons’. Pictured Ms Mahmood posing for photos before being sworn in as Lord High Chancellor of Great Britain 

A graph showing the maximum capacity of prisoners in comparison to the prison population

An official impact assessment slipped out by the Ministry of Justice shows an estimated 1,700 criminals sentenced to more than five years will be set free early in October. This could include criminals such as serious burglars, drug dealers and fraudsters.

They will be released after an initial tranche of 3,800 prisoners serving less than five years are let out in September, the document shows.

‘The policy will be implemented in two initial tranches to balance addressing capacity pressures whilst ensuring the volume of releases is manageable for providers of services for offenders in the community,’ the MoJ document said.

‘The first tranche will see prisoners with eligible sentences of less than five years released at the 40 per cent point, with the second extending this to sentences of five years or more.’

The impact assessment quietly published this week also sets out the possible dangers to the public of letting thousands of prisoners out of jail early.

‘As this option will mean offenders serve a reduced proportion of their sentence in custody, the amount of time in which they are unable to commit crimes within wider society is reduced.

‘Therefore, this option could lead to an increase in crimes committed … which would come with a socio-economic cost.’ It added that this cost would affect wider society as well as well as parts of the Government such as the police and Ministry of Justice.

When the early release scheme was announced last Friday, it did not make clear that prisoners serving more than five years would be eligible. Instead, it just said that the most dangerous criminals would be exempt.

An official impact assessment slipped out by the Ministry of Justice shows an estimated 1,700 criminals sentenced to more than five years will be set free early in October

Ms Mahmood said the temporary measures – which will see a reduction in the proportion of their sentence many prisoners must serve in jail from 50 to 40 per cent – will be reviewed in 18 months

Sources said the detail was included in the Statutory Instrument published online and insisted the Government has been clear that the majority of prisoners are on standard determinate sentences and so eligible for early release.

The assessment adds: ‘It is possible that the general public will feel less content that justice has been seen to be done (reduced retribution).’

It says the scheme will likely cost probation services £7.2million this year as staff prepare thousands more risk assessments and release plans, along with £1.2million for bail hostels and £2.8million extra to deal with prisoners made homeless.

But overall it is expected to save tens of millions every year by avoiding the need for more costly prison places.

Addressing the Commons yesterday, Ms Mahmood warned there were just 700 spaces left last week and prisons would ‘overflow’ by September, leading to the ‘total breakdown of law and order’, unless action is taken. 

Mr Carmichael said: ‘The Government is right to try to tackle the crisis in our prisons made by the Conservatives but the public must be reassured that no dangerous criminals will be released early.’

Reform UK’s Lee Anderson said: ‘It looks like Labour’s answer to reducing crime is very similar to their policy on reducing illegal migration. Criminals will be released early to commit more crimes and illegal migrants will be granted an amnesty.’

Former Conservative justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland told the Mail: ‘We need the clearest reassurance that people who pose a risk of reoffending are not released.’