Ukraine’s invasion of Russia places finish of the battle inside attain
In the last few weeks, Kyiv had been signalling it was open to peace talks with Moscow; not to surrender but to arrange an honourable settlement that preserves the country’s independence and recovers as much ground as possible.
The Ukrainian foreign minister, Dymtro Kuleba, had even gone to see Russian president Vladimir Putin’s allies in Beijing to sound out whether China would act as an intermediary.
If Putin took his counterpart Vlodomyr Zelensky’s willingness to talk as a sign that his resolve to fight was weakening, he surely suffered the greatest shock of his presidency in the early hours of August 6.
A week ago, an elite Ukrainian unit stormed the border and its forces have since seized some 400 square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region.
It appears that the Ukrainians have adopted the great Soviet art of ‘maskirovka’ – deception in warfare – and taught Putin a lesson in over-confidence.
Even Kyiv’s allies were caught by surprise. Though, given the presence of Nato advisers and technicians helping the Ukrainians deploy Western weaponry – including F16 fighters, French and British cruise missiles and German armoured vehicles – some must have noticed the preparations for the sudden offensive, but kept quiet.
Russian soldiers are photographed in the back of a pick-up truck after being captured by Ukrainian forces
An elite Ukrainian unit has stormed its border with Russia and seized 400 square miles in the Kursk region, adopting the great Soviet art of ‘maskirovka’ – deception in warfare – and seemingly taught Putin a lesson in over-confidence
A missile is fired beside the fighting taking place in Soledar, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine
The West is treading carefully, mindful of the cost the war is extracting from its taxpayers. Its leaders are happy to see Putin embarrassed by Ukraine’s surprise attack but they’ve kept the triumphalist rhetoric to a minimum, for fear of burning bridges with the Kremlin were it to open talks on a ceasefire.
Through its successful invasion, Ukraine has dramatically gained more leverage for those talks. Zelensky now has the basis for bargaining Russian land not only for peace but also for the return of areas of the Donbas overrun by the enemy.
Seen in that light, this act of aggression is not an escalation of the war but a signal that a negotiated settlement is edging closer.
It will be tempting for Zelensky to push further. With new American F-16s at his disposal, Russian targets in the Black Sea will be vulnerable.
Potential propaganda coups like bombing Putin’s summer palace near Sochi on the coast or even strategic gains like destroying the bridge linking Russia to Crimea could be options. But they could also be counter-productive, for they could enrage Putin so much that any prospect of a peace deal goes out of the window.
The important point is that being good at war is not just about fighting well.
As the renowned Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz argued after fighting with the Russian army against Napoleon in 1812, the ultimate purpose of war is to achieve a political objective.
Call it victory, call it peace, but political and military leaders have to keep their eyes on the great prize of attaining that ultimate goal, rather than just winning tactical victories on the battlefield. The choice of the invading Kursk was symbolic given the emotional resonance the region holds over Russians.
On the very same terrain in 1943, the heroic Red Army routed the retreating Nazis in the biggest tank battle ever seen, involving some 6,000 tanks and two million troops. The Battle of Kursk became a decisive turning point in the defeat of Hitler in the east.
Masked Russian prisoners lay in a pile on the ground after their capture in the Kursk region
Armed Ukrainian soldiers sit in the back of a truck as it heads towards conflict in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia
A man reacts to the destruction in a courtyard of a residential building, which local authorities claim was hit by debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile in their Kursk offensive
The ill-fated submarine that was named in its honour has also imprinted itself on the Russian psyche. In August 2000, barely eight months after Putin won the presidency, the nuclear-powered K-141 Kursk sank in the Barents Sea, taking with it all 118 souls on board.
The invasion of Kursk in particular, the first foreign incursion into Russia since the Second World War, will have hurt Putin. That war ended in total victory, but this war will end with a messy compromise.
Diplomacy is an unseemly business best kept secret from squeamish publics, as Germany’s greatest diplomat Bismarck remarked when he said: ‘Never ask how sausages or politics are made.’
A lot can go wrong, even in diplomacy behind the scenes. Trust is in short supply to put it mildly. Yet there is now a glimmer of a chance that Ukraine can get to hold its essential territory and rebuild its society and economy.
At the same time, Putin can declare victory, while selling to his people – who are weary of war and sanctions – a compromise that drops his former demands. And the world’s attention could then move on to the horrors of Gaza and maybe worse to come across the Middle East.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford
