GCSE college students face ‘LOTTERY’ to safe faculty programs amid shortages

Students receiving their GCSE results are facing a ‘lottery’ over college and sixth form places due to rising numbers of 16-year-olds, it’s been claimed today.

Experts say some areas of the country such as Leeds are seeing ‘acute’ shortages of places, including for technical and vocational qualifications.

This year saw a record number of grades handed out with more than 6.5 million GCSE results and vocational or technical awards. 

The overall number of grades rose by 4.8 percent, while the largest cohort ever meant a 4.6 percent increase in the number of 16-year-olds in the population.

Now teenagers could face more competition for sixth form and college places this year due a rising number of 16-year-olds in the population, leaders in the education sector have suggested. 

The proportion of GCSE entries awarded top grades fell for the third year in a row but is higher than before the pandemic, national figures show, as the final cohort of the Covid generation receive their results.

Hundreds of thousands of teenagers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland opened their GCSE exam results on Thursday in a year when grades were due to be restored to 2019 levels in all three nations.

More than a fifth (21.8 percent) of UK GCSE entries were awarded the top grades – at least a 7 or an A grade – this year, down 0.2 percentage points on last year.

This is higher than the equivalent figure for 2019 – before the pandemic disrupted schooling – of 20.8 percent. Most of the students receiving results today were in year 7 at the start of the pandemic.

This summer’s exams saw a record number of GCSE grades awarded, an increase on 2023 of 4.8 percent, or more than 6.1 million – compared with a 4.6 percent increase in the number of 16-year-olds.

The Association of Colleges (AoC) is calling on the Government to give colleges in-year funding to ensure they can recruit more students to start courses in September.

When asked whether there could be more competition for places, David Hughes, chief executive of the AoC, said capacity issues were ‘acute’ in a few areas – including Leeds.

He said: ‘It’s not just the overall cohort of 16-year-olds has gone up, but more of them are looking to do technical and vocational qualifications because they want stuff that really works in the labour market.’

Mr Hughes added: ‘We are worried that we’re getting to a point where in some places they simply won’t have the capacity, they won’t have the space, to take on students.’

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, told the PA news agency: ‘GCSE grades in 2024 will be marked by familiar divides in results between under-resourced pupils and their more privileged peers, manifested in both national and regional inequalities.

‘It is likely that competition for sixth-form places will be even more intense this year given the rising number of 16-year-olds taking GCSEs.

‘The concern is that pupils face a lottery in the chances of securing places at sixth forms and colleges across the country.’

More than 372,000 Vocational Technical Qualifications, or VTQs, were also awarded, taking the overall number of results to more than 6.5 million. 

The rise was partly driven by an increase in the number of students aged 17 or older taking exams, particularly in Maths and English Language. 

The figures, published by the Joint Council for Qualifications (JCQ), cover GCSE entries from students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The proportion of entries getting at least a 4 or a C grade – considered a ‘standard pass’ – has fallen from 68.2 percent in 2023 to 67.6 percent this year – a drop of 0.6 percentage points, but higher than 67.3 percent in 2019.

The overall rate for grades 1/G or above is 97.9 percent, down from 98.0 percent in 2023 and 98.3 percent in 2019.

In England, exams regulator Ofqual said it expected this year’s national results to be ‘broadly similar’ to last summer, when grades were brought back in line with pre-pandemic levels.

In Wales and Northern Ireland, exam regulators aimed to return to pre-pandemic grading this summer – a year later than in England.

It comes after Covid-19 led to an increase in top GCSE and A-level grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.

But last week, the proportion of A-level entries awarded top grades rose on last year and surpassed pre-pandemic highs.

According to figures from Ofqual, the number of 16-year-old students in England who received a 9 – the highest grade under the numerical grading system – in all their subjects has risen on last year. 

Some 1,270 16-year-olds in England taking at least seven GCSEs achieved a grade 9 in all their subjects, compared with 1,160 last year and 837 in 2019.

While traditional A*-G grades are used in Northern Ireland and Wales, in England these have been replaced with a 9-1 system, where 9 is the highest. A 4 is broadly equivalent to a C grade, and a 7 is broadly equivalent to an A.

The latest Ofqual figures show the attainment gap in GCSE results between private and state schools in England has widened at the top grades this year.

This summer, nearly half (48.4 percent) of private school entries scored a grade 7 and above compared to 19.4 percent of those at comprehensive schools – a gap of 29 percentage points. Last year this gap was 28.2 percentage points.

But the gap between private and comprehensive schools has narrowed compared to 2019 – when it was 29.3 percentage points.

Figures from JCQ show that London and the South East remain ahead in top grades compared to other regions of England, with more than a quarter of entries scoring at least a grade 7 in London, or 28.5 percent.

At the other end of the table, the North East has the lowest proportion, with 17.8 percent of entries scoring at least a grade 7.

The gulf between London and the North East has closed marginally – this year the gap was 10.7 percentage points while in 2023 it was 10.8 percentage points.

Leaders in the education sector have warned that this year’s cohort had to overcome a series of challenges in their secondary schooling in recent years.

Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said the results show ‘significant differences’ in regional outcomes for GCSEs in England.

He said: ‘This suggests that relative levels of prosperity and socioeconomic disadvantage continue to play a huge part in educational outcomes, and addressing these gaps must be a key priority for the new government working alongside the education sector.

‘We have to do more to support our schools and colleges. Funding and teacher shortages, combined with post-pandemic issues around mental health, behaviour and attendance, have made circumstances particularly challenging.’

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said: ‘These pupils have shown remarkable resilience and determination, defying unprecedented disruption throughout the pandemic, Raac and strike action.’

She added that the Government was ‘committed’ to breaking down barriers to opportunity by addressing ‘entrenched’ regional disparities and thanked teachers and staff who helped students achieve their GCSE results.

Ms Phillipson wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter: ‘Congratulations to all students getting results today, and a huge thank you to the incredible teachers and staff who’ve supported you along the way.

‘You’ve shown amazing resilience, overcoming challenges, and you should be proud of all you’ve achieved. Well done.’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told GCSE pupils they have done ‘an incredible job’.

The Prime Minister said: ‘Congratulations to those receiving their GCSE results today – you’ve done an incredible job.

‘I know the power of education and opportunity. My Government will make sure everyone’s path is determined by their talent, skills and ambition, not where you come from.’

Welsh Secretary of State Jo Stevens has sent ‘llongyfarchiadau’ (congratulations) to pupils receiving their GCSE grades in Wales.

She posted on X: ‘The wait is over! Llongyfarchiadau to everyone in Wales receiving their GCSE results this morning. Wishing you all the best as you embark on your next chapter.’

Wales First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan earlier wrote in Welsh on the social media website: ‘Pob lwc i bawb ledled Cymru sy’n derbyn canlyniadau TGAU heddiw.’

Her message translates as: ‘Good luck to all throughout Wales who are receiving their GCSE results today.’

She added: ‘Diolch (thank you) to all the teachers and parents too.’

Nearly 373,000 vocational and technical qualification (VTQ) results have also been awarded to pupils.

Sir Ian Bauckham, chief regulator of Ofqual, said: ‘Consistent, rigorous standards of grading are producing consistent results. It is evidence that we have settled back into a pattern of dependable and trustworthy results.’

Margaret Farragher, chief executive of the JCQ, said: ‘These achievements are hard-earned and students should feel justly proud to have reached this important milestone in their educational journey.’

Jill Duffy, chairwoman of JCQ board of directors and chief executive of OCR exam board, said: ‘We’re seeing a record number of results issued today, and every one of them represents a student’s hard work, as well as that of their teachers, parents, and support staff.’

In Scotland, results for National 5 qualifications earlier this month showed the pass rate was 77.2 percent, down from 78.8 percent last year and 78.2 percent in 2019.