What will the probe into the Bayesian sinking have a look at?

With the sinking of Mike Lynch’s £30million superyacht declared ‘unprecedented’ by maritime experts, the task of working out what happened will be long and complex.

The Bayesian capsized and sank after being struck by an over-sea tornado known as a waterspout on Monday morning, but with the vessel declared ‘unsinkable’ questions remain over its inability to withstand the freak event.

This morning five bodies recovered from the wreck of the doomed vessel were identified, including Mr Lynch. Searches continue for one person who is still missing, believed to be his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah.

Twenty two people, comprising 12 guests and 10 crew members, were on the luxury boat when disaster struck just before 5am. Fifteen of the 22 people who were on board managed to escape and make it onto a life raft.

Matthew Shank, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, called the disaster ‘unprecedented’, arguing that under any other circumstances, a boat of the Bayesian’s quality should have been able to withstand the weather.

Below, MailOnline looks at how the investigation will proceed, and some of the key issues it will consider. 

Who will be investigating the disaster?

Prosecutors in the nearby Sicilian town of Termini Imerese have opened an investigation into the tragedy. 

They will seek to establish what caused the boat to sink and if any of the crew are criminally liable.

The Bayesian is flagged in the Isle of Man, meaning the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch is carrying out a separate probe. 

A team of four British inspectors arrived in Sicily today, although their report will not seek to attribute blame. 

Who will the investigators speak to?

The yacht’s captain, New Zealand-born James Cutfield, has already undergone extensive questioning by the authorities.

The surviving crew members and passengers will also be quizzed by the authorities as part of a detailed investigation into the events leading up to the disaster. 

Officials may also contact Ron Holland, a naval architect who designed the Bayesian, along with executives at The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi – the firm that built the yacht at its shipyard in Viareggio in 2008.

What will they be focusing on?

The main issue prosecutors will examine is whether safety protocols were followed and the crew behaved appropriately. 

The yacht’s capacity of 12 passengers is relevant here, as if it was allowed to carry more it would have been classified as a passenger vessel – meaning stricter rules similar to those followed by cruise ships. 

Given the Bayesian’s status as a pleasure boat, there would be no requirement for an evacuation drill when passengers boarded, although it’s likely they would have conducted an emergency drill with life jackets. 

Safety at sea is governed by SOLAS, the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, which specifies minimum standards for the construction, equipment and operation of ships.

What concerns have been raised about the yacht’s portholes and hatches?

‘We didn’t see it coming,’ the Bayesian’s captain, James Catfield, said of the freak weather event that sank the vessel. 

Prosecutors are looking into the theory that the yacht’s portholes and hatches were not closed in time ahead of the storm, despite bad weather being forecast, and if any of the crew are liable. 

A spokesman for The Italian Sea Group previously told MailOnline ‘procedures were not followed’ on the luxury vessel and the sinking was down to ‘portholes being left open despite bad weather being forecast hours earlier‘.

They added: ‘A storm had been forecast earlier, no fishing boats went out and yet the portholes were not shut, the yacht sank because it was engulfed by a massive amount of water through open portholes. 

‘The Bayesian would have remained afloat in any weather, even if it was being swung from left to right in gale force winds but it could never have remained in the water with open port holes.

It has also been reported that the lower deck space housing the boat’s tender (the motor launch for ferrying passengers and crew ashore) was not fully closed when the ship went down. 

Plans for the ship suggest this compartment rests beneath the starboard bow, and some have suggested that sealing it would have helped prevent water flowing into the yacht’s hull when the wind blew it over. 

However, a senior maritime expert said that leaving this hatch partially open was not exceptional for a yacht at anchor, as Bayesian was.  

‘You might well not stow the tender or close all your hatches when at anchor – you close them when you go to sea,’ the source told the Mail’s Robert Hardman.

Why are questions being asked about the ship’s keel?

The keel, which extends like a giant fin underneath the boat and acts as a counterweight to the tall mast, was not fully down despite poor weather being forecast hours before. 

Experts told the Mail that it is fairly standard for the keel not to be fully lowered while a ship is at anchor, but with storms forecast and portholes reportedly left open, it raises questions over the cause of the tragedy.

According to state broadcaster, RAI, the keel – which gives a yacht its stability and its capacity to steer in a straight line – was lowered to a depth of 4 metres instead of the full 7.5.

Had the keel been fully extended, the yacht would have had a better chance of righting itself.

But once again, the senior maritime expert consulted by Robert Hardman said the approach taken by the Bayesian’s crew was not unusual. 

‘You might well not have a lifting keel right down when anchored close to the shore as you don’t want to hit the bottom,’ they said. 

Should the passengers have been warned?

All but one of the ship’s crew survived the disaster, which suggests they may have been on deck when the storm hit while the passengers remained in their cabins, a senior lawyer told MailOnline yesterday. 

This raises the question of whether the passengers should have been woken up by the crew and given life jackets in light of the poor weather. 

However, experts have insisted that the nature of the weather forecast meant there would have been little reason to do this, The Times reports. 

CCTV from a house on the shore showed how rapidly conditions deteriorated when the waterspout struck, while the fact other ships remain upright suggests it was incredibly localised. 

Reports suggest the yacht sank within a minute, pointing to a sudden, catastrophic event that may have been difficult to foresee. 

What should have happened when the Bayesian rolled onto its side? 

The ship’s builders have insisted the yacht was built to withstand any weather conditions and should have been able to right itself.  

An unearthed video from Auckland, New Zealand, showed what should happen if a ship such as the Bayesian overturns in stormy weather. 

The CCTV footage, from 2019, shows a tornado pushing a large superyacht with a similar mast style to the Bayesian onto its side. 

But rather than capsizing, the mast quickly flips straight back up to its upright position. 

Why is the ship’s huge mast a subject of interest?

The yacht had the world’s tallest aluminium mast at almost 250ft, and some experts have suggested this could have been a factor in the sinking. 

Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht anchored nearby during the storm, told Italian media there was a ‘very strong hurricane gust’ that caused the mast to ‘bend and snap’. 

Gino Ciriaci, technical consultant and nautical expert, said the weight of the broken mast took the hull beyond the ‘down-flooding angle’. 

He said a mast that tall would have exerted a pressure of ‘tens of tons’ due to the wind and said it is ‘normal’ that the boat could sink based on its technical characteristics. 

But in an update on the rescue mission on Tuesday, Marco Tilotta, from the Palermo fire service divers’ unit, said the ship was lying on its side in one piece.

And the Bayesian’s builders said: ‘The mast has nothing to do with what happened, it was built that way when it was launched and it had a refit in 2020 in Spain, the yacht sank because procedures in bad weather were not followed.’