Escalation that might scupper newest hopes of ceasefire deal
The blizzard of missiles, rockets and drones blasted from Lebanon into Israel in the early hours yesterday may have been no more than a preliminary.
This shelling could have been worse but for a series of earlier Israeli air strikes designed to pre-empt plans by Hezbollah to launch an even bigger wave of the rockets.
Israel’s air force struck at thousands of rocket launchers and bunkers housing everything from ancient Soviet Katyusha systems to modern Iranian missiles.
Many of the missiles fired from Lebanon can do serious damage if they hit a target, but they are ‘mostly’ easy for the Israeli air defences to detect and destroy.
This Hezbollah drone was blown up by an Israeli jet
Nevertheless, this latest fusillade serves to further deplete Israel’s defensive capability, notably the Iron Dome system, thereby improving Hezbollah’s chances of hitting major targets with more powerful missiles in the future.
The Islamist leadership is claiming to have damaged buildings deep inside Israel, as far south as the outskirts of Tel Aviv – hitting a military base and patrol boat further north.
We cannot be sure of this – Israel has banned publishing pictures of bomb damage, both on TV and via social media, to stop Hezbollah making a damage assessment.
A state of emergency has also been declared.
Whatever the case, Hezbollah’s attack has been expected for weeks, as payback for Israel’s double assassination of one of its commanders and the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed in the Iranian capital Tehran last month. The revenge strike was delayed because of the Shi’ite holy festival of Arbaeen, when up to two million pilgrims travelled overland from Lebanon and Iran to Karbala in Iraq.
Many observers believe that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is relying on a constant state of conflict to keep him in power
Now their journey is over, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard – Hezbollah’s real masters – has warned the war will commence in earnest.
Israel is well-prepared, but its pre-emptive strikes yesterday may not be enough to deflect the onslaught. It’s estimated that Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets in its well-hidden arsenals. This escalation also seems certain to put paid to American efforts at brokering a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Central to this is the release of the surviving hostages seized during the Hamas rampage on October 7.
Both sides say they don’t want all-out war. But neither is willing to be the first to turn the other cheek and stop retaliation – so war is looming. If that happens, it will be on a scale that dwarfs the unfathomable civilian cost of Israel’s assault in Gaza over the past ten months.
Many observers believe that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is relying on a constant state of conflict to keep him in power.
As long as there’s no ceasefire in Gaza, an uneasy truce will continue within Israeli politics. If the fighting stops, Netanyahu will be ousted by his rivals, and will face prosecution and perhaps prison on corruption charges.
America is pledged to support Israel in any war against Iran. Already it has deployed vast naval forces, including three nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, to seas around the Middle East.
Thanks to our military bases in Cyprus, a little over 100 miles from the nearest missile launchers in Lebanon, the UK would be drawn into the war, too. Not only our armed forces but expats and holidaymakers in Cyprus would be in danger.
Last Friday, Hamas announced that Israelis in Europe and elsewhere, and by extension all Jews, were now regarded as targets for terrorist attacks abroad.
Meanwhile, schools in northern Israel are closed and up to 100,000 Israelis have been evacuated from the border with Lebanon.
The threats to peace continue to loom beyond Israel and Lebanon, and fears grow that the vortex of escalating violence could drag us and many others into the conflict.
- Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford
