A reverse ferret in Paris because the OECD backs Britain: ALEX BRUMMER

Among major economic forecasters none has been more negative about prospects for the British economy than the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Those of us with a suspicious minds have long considered that, like much of the international forecasting establishment, it has never quite forgiven the UK for leaving the European Union and went out of its way to be negative.

In its latest projections the OECD has done a full 180-degree turn, moving its growth forecast for this year up from 0.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent.

Rethink: In its latest projections the OECD has done a full 180-degree turn, moving its growth forecast for this year up from 0.4% to 1.1% in the biggest refresh for any rich G7 nation

So what changed?

It would have been difficult for the OECD to remain so far behind the curve when UK output was so healthy in the first half of the year, supported by robust services, an improvement in manufacturing and signs of a revival in construction.

The biggest threat to that upturn has been Rachel Reeves arriving at the Treasury putting out negative vibes, which have harmed consumer confidence and made some businesses reluctant to invest.

The Bank of England hasn’t helped by holding interest rates at 5 per cent because inflation hasn’t yet been destroyed.

Both the European Central Bank and its US equivalent the Federal Reserve have been robust in lowering rates. 

Riksbank, the Swedish central bank, is the latest to act by scything its borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25 per cent.

The human factor should never be discounted when it comes to rogue forecasts.

One common thread is former Treasury economist Clare Lombardelli, who moved seamlessly from Whitehall to the OECD, where she was responsible for bleak projections of UK prospects.

Barely pausing for breath, she has since been parachuted into the Bank of England as deputy governor. Responsibilities include producing the Inflation Report which guides the rate-setters at the Bank.

It is not in the least bit surprising that ‘groupthink’ – self-perpetuating views about the economy – is one of the criticisms made by the House of Lords economic affairs committee. 

It was also hinted at by Ben Bernanke, the ex-Fed chairman, in a chastening report on the Bank’s inadequate forecasting models.

As an external member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee it might have been expected that former Kroll economist Megan Greene might hold different views to insiders nurtured in the Treasury-Bank complex.

Instead, she has suggested the Bank might need to slow rate reductions in case consumers unleash their spending power.

Consumer cash is exactly what is needed by our shuttered high streets, quiet retail parks and a recovering property sector.

Real deal

One should never underestimate the craft and determination of the currently fractured Murdoch dynasty.

Three times the Australian real estate listings firm Rea Group, an offshoot of News Corp, has made increasing offers for British online estate agent Rightmove.

Three times it has been shown the door. The bid value has zipped up to £6.1billion. Rightmove chief Andrew Fisher has described the assault as ‘unattractive’.

Rea wants to go global and is expanding into India where prices of homes in wealthy enclaves can outstrip London.

Breaking into the UK market, three times the size of Australia, is alluring. The timing is acute, given the downward trend in market-driven mortgage rates and Labour’s promise to drive construction.

The British firm has challenges, not least rivalry from US outfit CoStar, which bought On The Market last year. Fisher has taken the phone calls but Rea is disgruntled at Rightmove’s refusal to engage.

How refreshing to see that a listed online pioneer is standing firm against overseas marauders.

Levelling up

German carmakers are going through a troubled patch but there are shards of light in the UK.

BMW-owned Royce-Royce Motor Cars is full of confidence. Despite the rich allegedly deserting Britain in droves, it has opened its largest European showroom in Leeds, bringing ‘a touch of Goodwood (where the cars are made) to Yorkshire.’

Made in Britain – and the Rolls marque still count.