Why the world can afford the intimidating sums wanted to beat superbugs

Developing new antibiotics is a billion dollar process: to fund just one drug requires $330 million, every year, for 10 years.

But those numbers aren’t as intimidating as they sound to the average person, according to a new report. Even the world’s 200th best selling medical product – a monoclonal antibody called Takhzyro, used to tackle a hereditary condition which triggers severe swelling attacks – generated almost three times more revenue in 2021.

This is the central message of a report launched as the UN meets for a high level meeting on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in New York on Thursday: the fight against superbugs is existential, yet winning the battle will not only cost less than you might expect, but be incredibly lucrative.

The paper, from the Centre for Global Development (CGD), estimated the return on investments aimed at tackling AMR. It found spending $63 billion a year to develop a range of new antibiotics – a sum slightly higher than what the UK alone spent on defence last year – would generate benefits worth more than $1.7 trillion by 2050.

“To break it down more simply, for every dollar you put in, you get $28 out by 2050,” said Anthony McDonnell, a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development and lead author of the report. “So you’ll get a large return on your investment, but the health system costs in the long run will also be cheaper.”

The paper comes after a major report in the Lancet estimated that annual deaths from superbugs in otherwise healthy individuals will almost double by 2050, to 1.91 million every year. Meanwhile associated fatalities (among the elderly and others whose immune systems are compromised) will surge to 8.22 million.

In the new paper, the CGD also explored the financial hit to health systems, the labour market, tourism and domestic hospitality if superbugs spread unchecked, in the broadest modelling yet to assess the economic shots of drug resistant infections.

It found AMR could increase health costs by $159 billion worldwide by 2050 – equating to nine months of NHS spending – and that halting direct superbug deaths would mean 23 million more people are in the labour force by 2050, roughly the population of Taiwan.

“When governments and treasuries are making decisions about where and how much to put into the healthcare system… this is an area where you’re investing in happy, healthy people, but also in a hard-headed economic return on your investment,” said Mr McDonnell. 

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