SETH J FRANTZMAN: The solely solution to neutralise Hezbollah is with tanks

Hezbollah has spent years turning southern Lebanon into a fortress bristling with a formidable array of firepower.

The Muslim Shi’ite towns it draws its fighters from and the Christian villages it uses as cover for its murderous ­campaigns are home to a vast stockpile of more than 150,000 rockets.

What’s more, it has had years to develop a sophisticated network of ­tunnels and observation posts in the hilly terrain that runs along Israel‘s northern border.

And in the 11 months since Hamas launched the raid from Gaza that killed 1,200 Israelis last October, Hezbollah has maintained a near constant ­barrage of missile attacks – involving no fewer than 8,000 rockets – and 60,000 Israelis were evacuated from the area last year.

Benjamin Netanyahu‘s government has vowed to return these people to their homes, but that can only be done once the threat of attacks by Hezbollah has been neutralised.

An Israeli army tank, pictured in an area of Israel’s southern border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip in August

Smoke rises over the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh this week

Benjamin Netanyahu ‘s government has vowed to return these people to their homes, but that can only be done once the threat of attacks by Hezbollah has been neutralised

And that can only be achieved by a ground operation involving Israeli tanks, infantry, and special forces equipped with swarms of drones ­crossing the border into Lebanon.

Some of the more excitable commentators would have you believe this could trigger the start of World War III but, as someone who’s covered the activities of Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies in the region for a decade, I can tell you that is nonsense.

But, having made regular visits to northern Israel since the Hamas atrocity, one thing I know for sure is that no ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah is worth the paper it’s written on.

In the aftermath of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, for example, the terms of UN Resolution 1701 restricted Hezbollah to territory north of the Litani River, which runs 15 to 20 miles north of the border.

This meant that Israel would be out of range of its anti-tank guided missile fire, the weaponry Hezbollah has used to target Israeli communities along the border. It would also prevent Hezbollah from carrying out an October 7-style surprise attack. Has Hezbollah abided by this ­agreement? Of course not.

Prior to the Hamas incursion, Israel was preparing for the possibility that Hezbollah’s well-trained elite Radwan Force would launch attacks on Israel at points along the 50-mile northern ­border in a bid to seize some of the small Israeli communities that dot the ridges along the frontline. In the event, Hezbollah has contented itself with its relentless missile ­bombardment, ­vowing to continue these attacks as long as the Gaza war continues.

And it is only one element of Iran’s multi-front war on Israel, which includes militias in Iraq and the ­Houthis in Yemen. These groups not only attack Israel itself but target commercial ships sailing through the region and U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

Hezbollah is unwilling to stand down without an order from Tehran and the virulently anti-Semitic mullahs who run Iran are happy to keep sending Lebanese Shi’ites to their deaths.

In such a context, a ground war looks increasingly likely. And Israel has spent years training its army for just such an eventuality.

Only this week, the 7th Armoured Brigade of the Israel Defence Force (IDF) completed its preparations for an invasion of southern Lebanon. Just a few miles from the Lebanese border, troops were trained in ‘manoeuvring and combat in thicketed, mountainous terrain’, according to the IDF.

As Israel’s troops have seen tough ­combat in Gaza, they are probably the best prepared they have been in ­decades.

But serious challenges lie ahead.

A firefighter at the site of an Israeli strike, in Beirut’s southern suburbs,

Iran’s proxies have started to intensify their attacks. Iraqi militias launched drones at the southern Israeli port city of Eilat on September 25. One reached its target while another was shot down.

Drones and missiles don’t win wars, however, and Israel has highly effective air defences to combat just such a threat. Nor is Iran likely to risk a major regional war by entering the fray itself.

Instead, Tehran will try to diplomatically isolate Israel, as its new president attempted to do this week at the UN General Assembly.

If Israel wants Hezbollah to move off the hills that overlook Israel south of the Litani, it looks increasingly likely that it will need to use tanks and infantry.

Seth J. Frantzman is an ­analyst at The Jerusalem Post, an Adjunct Fellow at The Foundation For Defence Of Democracies and author of The October 7th War: ­Israel’s Battle For Security In Gaza.