AI guru to avoid wasting NHS tens of millions on missed check-ups

AI software: Dr Chris Bates, research and analytics director at TPP

A leading data scientist has hailed the power of artificial intelligence (AI) after it helped cut the number of patients skipping GP appointments by almost a third.

Chris Bates, research and analytics director at clinical software firm TPP, said his company’s technology could save the cash-strapped NHS a fortune. No-shows account for more than a million missed GP appointments every month – equal to one in 20 scheduled consultations. 

This adds to pressure on a healthcare system already creaking from the demands of an ageing population.

Now Leeds-based TPP has developed an AI tool that predicts which patients are most likely not to turn up to their appointments. 

The company uses machine learning models to analyse patterns of patient behaviour based on a range of factors. Its algorithms analyse demographic details including age, gender and appointment booking history.

Young men from a lower socio-economic background in and around cities are most likely to miss GP appointments, Bates told the Mail.

Patients living closest to a GP surgery were more likely to skip a consultation than those living further away, though it is not clear why this is the case, he said. 

Armed with the information on the type of patient most likely to skip an appointment, GP surgeries can take action to nudge them into turning up, such as sending them a text or speaking to them on the telephone.

The idea is not to try to deprive patients of an opportunity to see their GP based on an AI profile, but instead encourage them to come by giving them additional reminders.

‘There’s been too much hype about AI in healthcare and not enough delivery – we’re changing this,’ said Bates. 

‘This is a brilliant exemplar of what machine learning will bring to healthcare, helping to tackle real problems for frontline teams and patients.’

Missed appointments cost the NHS £216million a year – enough to pay 2,325 full-time doctors – according to its own figures.

A successful trial in Norfolk of the AI technology is being rolled out across the country.

‘Since we started using the report, we’ve seen our DNA [Did Not Attend] rate decrease by 30 per cent, equating to hundreds of appointments since the start of the pilot,’ said Karen Bell, surgery manager at Trinity and Bowthorpe practice in Norwich.