Shock ballot reveals Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Trump in Iowa
Kamala Harris is showing a last-second surge in an unexpected area, the typically bright red Iowa.
A final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll just released shows Vice President Harris leading Donald Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
It is a total outlier and the first indication the state has warmed towards the Democrat.
Polling in September showed Trump with a four point lead over Harris. The former president had an 18 point lead for over President Biden in June before he dropped out of the race.
But the tables have since turned the new survey reveals, presenting a potential new path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
A new survey shows Kamala Harris with a three point lead in Iowa
The three point lead for Harris is well within the margin of error of the poll.
Surprisingly the survey also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the vote.
The Kennedy notably had nine percent of the vote in the state according to polls conducted in June.
The surprise lead for Harris is buoyed by independent women voters, which have been expected to break for the Democrat as men turn to Trump in droves.
Harris has a 28 point lead with these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are breaking for the Republican.
Whereas, another Iowa poll shows the race firmly in the Republican’s grasp.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris acknowledges the crowd during a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on November 2, 2024
Both Trump and Harris were in North Carolina on Saturday
Former President Trump and Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris are tied in the polls with 3 days until the election
An Emerson College poll found that the ex-president holds a 53 percent lead to Harris 43 percent.
The 10 point lead for Trump in that survey is safely within the three point margin of error.
Both of the Iowa surveys were released on Saturday just three days before Election Day.
The latest J.L. Partners election forecast model delivered to DailyMail.com Saturday also spells bad news for Trump.
The model is trending away from ‘lean’ Trump into ‘toss up’ territory.
Trump remains the favorite, and he wins in 62.2 percent of simulations.
But that is a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a string of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump watches a video screen at a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Salem, Va
Trump has a 10 point lead in Iowa, according to Emerson
All the swing states have seen movement against Trump.
Callum Hunter, J.L. Partners’ data scientist, writes in his latest briefing note:
‘It is now clear that the momentum of recent polling is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s win probability has dropped 7 points in five days and if more polling is released that shows similar patterns from recent days then the race will flip from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before election day.’
