Trump rally stay updates: Betting market reveals a shift within the race as ex-president hits North Carolina

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent for DailyMail.com

The number crunchers at J.L. Partners have delivered their latest update for our election model. And it is more bad news for Donald Trump.

The model is trending away from LEAN Trump into TOSSUP territory. Trump remains the favorite, and he wins in 62.2 percent of simulations. But that is a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a string of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.

All the swing states have seen movement against Trump.

Arizona -Trump’s win probability has decreased by 2 points. It remains a LIKELY TRUMP state.

Georgia – Trump’s win probability dropped by 2.8 points. It remains a LIKELY TRUMP state although is on the cusp of being classified down to LEAN TRUMP.

Michigan – Trump’s win probability dropped by 2.5 points. It remains a TOSSUP TRUMP but is less than 1 point from flipping back to Harris.

Nevada – Trump’s win probability decreased by 2.3 points, undoing yesterday’s increase. The state remains LEAN TRUMP.

North Carolina – a two-point movement against Trump. The state remains a LIKELY TRUMP state.

Pennsylvania – a 1.4-point movement against Trump. The state remains LEAN TRUMP state.

Wisconsin – a two-point movement against Trump. The state remains a TOSSUP TRUMP state.

Callum Hunter, J.L. Partners’ data scientist, writes in his latest briefing note:

It is now clear that the momentum of recent polling is in Harris’ favour. Trump’s win probability has dropped 7 points in five days and if more polling is released that shows similar patterns from recent days then the race will flip from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before election day.

A slew of state polling (including non-battleground states) is responsible for that shift, he continues.

The key thing is to note where this momentum is concentrated. The biggest shifts over the past week have been in the Rust Belt states (MI +8.4% Harris, PA +7.2% Harris and WI +6.5% Harris) – states that are key for Harris to win if she wants to win the Electoral College. Whether this momentum has come too late in the day is hard to say – it is likely that Michigan will swap back to Harris in the coming days and Wisconsin will continue to narrow.

Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are now greater than Donald Trump’s, according to one online prediction market.

With just three days until what could be one of the closest elections in history, the vice president has leapfrogged the Republican nominee on PredictIt.

The platform lets users share trades on the outcomes of financial and political events and has been deemed one of the most reliable when determining the outcome of this year’s race.

As of Saturday morning, shares in Harris were trading at 53 cents while Trump was at 52.

Trump is still ahead on other oddsmakers such as Polymarket.

In Real Clear Politics’ average of betting odds, Trump is almost 18 points ahead.

See how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with three days until Election Day with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.

Our interactive graphs give invaluable insight into how pollsters are predicting the outcome of the race before the November 5 election.

With less than a week to go, the polls are on a knife’s edge and the race is too close to call.

The winner will ultimately decided in the seven swing states : Pennsylvania , Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.

The margins in each of the battleground are razor thin, and the next president could be decided by just a few thousand votes.

All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com’s pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

I also want to speak to the comments that have been recently made by the speaker of the House.

It is just further evidence of everything that I’ve actually been talking about for months now, about [former President Donald] Trump’s intention to implement Project 2025.

We have talked repeatedly — and the American people know what’s in it — we’ve talked repeatedly about their intention to get rid of the Affordable Care Act. Now to get rid of the CHIPS Act.

Is it too little, too late for Kamala Harris?

Days to go and desperate to fend off Donald Trump’s ‘poll vault’, Saint Kamala – canonized at convention – has come off the mountain and dived into the gutter.

Joy is so last summer. From her ‘great debate’ to now peddling hate, the name-calling (#garbagegate), finger-pointing and flip-flopping is hurting her dearly.

Where did it all go wrong? Well, not that Misogynist Mark Cuban would have you believe it, but I know a thing or two about how to run (and win!) a presidential campaign.

Here are the hard truths someone should have told Kamala, who’s had a ghoulish October:

Singer songwriter Victoria Monet became the latest celebrity to endorse Kamala Harris during her rally in Georgia on Saturday.

The 35-year-old year took the stage and took a different approach with a rallying cry to undecided voters.

‘I challenge you to make sure that your friends, your family, your neighbors, your coworkers, your booty call,’ to vote, she told the crowd in Atlanta.

Tim Walz appeared to call Elon Musk a ‘gay guy’ on the campaign trail – leading to a swift response from the Tesla boss.

The Minnesota Governor made the remark while speaking out against tax cuts for the rich in Michigan – before painting the billionaire as someone who has benefited from them.

‘If you’re a billionaire, Elon Musk for example,’ the aspiring vice president says in viral snippets of the speech, before getting into the apparent gaffe.

‘That guy, that gay guy got-‘

He proceeds to trail off – before laughing off what Harris’s team now says was a slip.

By Geoff Earle, Deputy U.S. Political Editor in Atlanta, Georgia

Rally-goers at Kamala Harris’ Atlanta rally gave her a strong sign they have already put in their votes for her.

‘Let me ask you this: Anybody here already voted? Well thank you!’ Harris told the crowd, after getting a big response.

But she didn’t give a hard time to procrastinators, as the two campaigns fight for the shriveling number of undecided voters.

‘No judgment – but you still have time!’ she told them. And in a state with ID checks, she told them, ‘Remember to bring your photo ID,’ after asking Georgians for their vote.

Her comments came after Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger reported that early voting had topped 4 million, surpassing 50 percent of the state’s total vote.

After blasting Donald Trump over his shooting comments about Liz Cheney, Harris leaned into her stump speech where she pledged to seek ‘common ground’ and be president ‘for all Americans.’

She also played medic, calling out to people in the crowd who needed help. ‘And it looks like we need a medic over there – it’s hot out here, Atlanta,’ she said.

Social media users have reacted after a bizarre clip of Donald Trump emerged when his microphone cut out during a rally.

Opting to instead use a handheld microphone, Trump was seen yanking at the microphone at his stand before he started putting his mouth around it.

Social media X has since erupted with a spate of comments over the widely shared footage.

One person commented on the short clip, which has been viewed over 14 million times: ‘Doesn’t look like his first time either.’

A top Republican pollster has said he believes Kamala Harris will win the race to the White House based on the votes of young women.

Frank Luntz, a top GOP strategist, revealed on Friday night he expects her to win decisively in the upcoming election.

Speaking with CNN’s Anderson Cooper on his show AC360, Luntz said if the group turn out in big numbers it will be ‘great news for Harris’.

Cooper asked him about polls showing Harris now leading Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Luntz said he was done looking at the polling, saying it was determined now and had to turned his attention to turnout and the votes of young women

Biden went on a tangent about Trump’s proposed tax cuts saying it could be ‘tempting’ for voters.

But he went on to slam ‘Trump and his friends’:

I tell you what man, we used to have a little trouble going down the plot once in a while. But I’m serious, these are the kind of guys you like to smack in the a**.

By the way, I’m serious. Think about it.

The crowd erupted into applause and laughter.

He went on to talk about his son Beau who ‘gave his life for this country’ and Trump’s ‘sucker and losers’ comments about the military.

Donald Trump took the stage in Gastonia, North Carolina, and claimed the Biden-Harris administration has been spending hurricane relief on migrants.

He urged a huge crowd in the battkeground state to head to the polls in three days if they weren’t part of the 70 million who have done so already.

The former president then reeled off a list of his policies, including removing tax on tips and overtime.

The Republican nominee also tore into Harris over the jobs report released on Friday that missed expectations.

‘Yesterday, it was announced that Kamala’s economy added only 12,000 jobs last month.

‘We lost nearly 30,000 private sector jobs, along with nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs in a single month.

‘We cannot take four more years of this calamity.’

Donald Trump says he has been holding rallies for 62 or 63 days in a row – and he is stunned he hasn’t lost his voice.

The former president said he is doing three or four campaign events a day in the final stretch of the presidential race.

He claimed Harris does one and then needs to take the rest of the day off.

Trump posted a video on his plane as he hits the campaign trail in North Carolina and Virginia Saturday.

He says illegal migrants from ‘mental institutions’ are flooding into the U.S.

It’s a common line he’s been repeating on the campaign trail. With three days left to the election, he’s hitting Kamala Harris hard on her role as Biden’s ‘border czar.’

Harris is campaigning in Georgia and North Carolina today.

A new poll shows that a significant number of Americans are less likely to believe Vice President Kamala Harris’ claim that she worked at McDonald’s when she was in college.

The Democratic presidential has used her story of serving fries and ice cream at a franchise in Alameda, California, to bolster an image that of coming from humble roots.

But 58 percent of likely American voters expressed some doubt or outright disbelief in the claim, according to a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll.

Thirty-seven percent of voters said they did not believe her claim and 21 percent of voters in the poll said they were ‘unsure.’

Just 43 percent of likely American voters said they believed Harris’ claim

The survey included 1,003 likely voters and was conducted October 27-29 with a margin of error of three percent.

After legal challenges and weeks of recounting votes, the dust settled on the 2020 election with a narrow Joe Biden victory by roughly 40,000 votes in a handful of key states.

It was a far cry from the drubbing of Donald Trump that polls had predicted.

Major presidential polling averages had shown that then-candidate Joe Biden was ahead of then-President Donald Trump by a staggering seven to eight points on Election Day.

Individual polls were more egregiously faulty, with some showing Biden could be expected to cruise to victory by a 9, 10 or even 11-point margin.

Those forecasts turned out to be wildly wrong.

Social media was awash with a fake statement purporting to be from Donald Trump raging at the death of viral sensation Peanut the Squirrel.

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) confirmed the home of Peanut’s owner Mark Longo had been raided.

Afterward, Peanut and fellow TikTok star Fred The Racoon were euthanized.

Their deaths sparked a frenzy on social media that quickly spurned the spread of fake news.

The statement from the Trump-Vance camp turned out to be a hoax, but not before it went viral.

There have been horrible reports out of New York, my former home state, where state environmental agents raided the home of Mark Longo and his wife. Mark was taken into custody for hours while officials searched his home and eventually took two of their pets, Fred the Raccoon and Peanut the Squirrel. These animals were later executed by the state of New York.

New York authorities, under their terrible Governor, put more effort in finding an eliminating a squirrel, who was innocent by all accounts, than they do to control the unchecked illegal immigrants who have flooded their state. If Peanut could have told them he was from Mexico, they would have sent him on his way and given him a hotel room and a $500 gift card to Buddy Squirrel. Instead, he was taken from his family. Very sad, and a complete waste of resources! When we win, we will get our priorities in order and MAGA!

Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump head to North Carolina on Saturday to try to clinch support in the battleground state just three days before Tuesday’s presidential election.

Trump has a slight advantaged over Harris in recent polls in the state. Harris would be the first Democrat to win in 40 years if she snatches victory.

It will be the fourth day in a row that Vice President Harris and former President Trump visit the same state on the same day, underlining the critical importance of the seven states likely to decide the race, which opinion polls show to be on a knife’s edge.

More than 70 million Americans have already cast ballots, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

The numbers are below the record early-voting pace in 2020 during COVID-19, but still indicating a high level of voter enthusiasm.

‘On my way to North Carolina to speak to a crowd so large that it goes beyond the beautiful horizon, and this, after a huge Rally in Milwaukee, in the Great State of Wisconsin, last night, in front of over 30,000 American Patriots!, Trump wrote on Truth Social this morning.

‘Low Energy Democrat Candidate Lyin’ Kamala Harris, was also in Milwaukee yesterday, spending millions of Taxpayer Dollars on the trip, all to speak in front of only 900 people, and most of them were my supporters.

‘They witnessed a person who is totally confused and tired. She is a Low IQ individual, not equipped to be President, and that’s why she can’t draw a crowd.

‘We have people lining up for days, all over our soon to be magnificent Nation. Kamala is slumping to the finish line, yawning, shrieking, and cackling, while I am working 24/7 to win this Election, so we can save our Country and, Make America Great Again!’

Donald Trump doubled down on his attacks on Liz Cheney and insisted he hadn’t heard the ‘floating island of garbage’ joke about Puerto Rico that sparked fury at his Madison Square Garden rally.

The former president spoke to Fox and Friends about the response to claims that Cheney should be sent to war and have ‘nine barrels shooting at her’.

Trump has stood by the comments, even after Kamala Harris called them ‘disqualifying’ and Cheney said they were proof he is a fascist

The Republican nominee slammed the ‘media hoax’ in the aftermath of the remarks with Tucker Carlson.

‘All I’m saying is she was a nutty war hawk, you know, she wants to go to war with anybody that moves,’ Trump said.

He added that ‘she was a nut job just like her father,’ former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, the architect of President George W. Bush’s foreign policy in the Middle East.

Trump added that Cheney is ‘probably worse’ than her father ‘cause she’s not as smart’.

Later in the Fox News interview, Trump also insisted that he hadn’t heard comedian and podcaster Tony Hinchcliffe’s joke.

He also defended his record by saying ‘nobody’s been better for Puerto Rico than me’.

Reports last month claimed Trump was set to watch the game in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania just three days before the election.

According to Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger, Trump’s team had been making plans for him to attend the matchup after he was invited by a ‘private citizen’.

But a Penn State spokesman has now confirmed that the former president will not stop by.

They said: ‘The University has been notified that former President Donald Trump will no longer be attending the Ohio State-Penn State football game.’

The No. 3 Nittany Lions will host the No. 4 Buckeyes in a massive Big Ten clash.

The game is scheduled to kick off at 12pm ET but Trump has other arrangements as he looks to secure a return to the White House in the coming days.

The Supreme Court on Friday rejected an emergency appeal from Republicans that could have led to thousands of provisional ballots not being counted in the battleground state.

The justices left in place a state Supreme Court ruling that elections officials must count provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected.

As of Thursday, about 9,000 ballots out of more than 1.6 million returned have arrived at elections offices around Pennsylvania lacking a secrecy envelope, a signature or a date, according to state records.

Pennsylvania is the biggest presidential election battleground this year, with 19 electoral votes.

George W. Bush has been urged to endorse Kamala Harris in the upcoming election after his daughter Barbara canvassed for the Democratic nominee.

Speaking on The New Yorker Radio Hour podcast, former GOP representative Liz Cheney urged the former president to speak out on the dangers of Donald Trump.

Cheney, daughter of Bush’s former Vice President Dick Cheney, said: ‘I can’t explain why [he] hasn’t spoken out, but I think it’s time, and I wish that he would.’

The elder Cheney has already crossed party lines and said Trump should ‘never be trusted with power again’, with his daughter confirming he was backing Harris.

With Barbara Bush, 42, canvassing in Pennsylvania last week for Harris, pressure is starting to mount for the former commander-in-chief, 78, to pick a side.

Kamala Harris’ West Wing office is less than a mile from her father’s Washington, D.C. home.

But they could not be further apart.

Despite the proximity between father and world-famous daughter, there is no record of Donald, 86, ever having visited her in the White House.

His name does not appear in any of the publicly available visitor logs from her three-and-a-half years in office. Nor are there any recent public photographs of the pair together.

It is possible that the VP has privately hosted her father in her government-provided home – at the United States Naval Observatory in DC – where visitor records are not public.

But it is perhaps more likely that Donald Harris has kept a deliberate distance, determined to stay away from what he has described as the ‘political hullabaloo’ surrounding his daughter, whose controversial comments he once criticized as ‘a travesty’.

For her part, VP Harris has previously described their relationship as ‘not close’.

So just who is Donald Harris?

In a knife’s-edge election that hinges on turnout, voter enthusiasm for one candidate over the other is a key to victory.

And what clearer signal could there be than which candidate – Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – is selling the most campaign hats?

Inside a massive, gray-brick building in New Jersey workers are churning out Harris and Trump baseball caps by the tens of thousands.

And forecasters attempting to read the mood of the nation may want to take note at the speed – and output – of their assembly lines.

‘We have done work for every major presidential candidate since the year 2000,’ Mitch Cahn, owner of the Unionwear factory, proudly told DailyMail.com.

According to data put out today by the North Carolina Board of Elections, Republicans have the edge over Democrats in early voting.

That’s a positive sign for Donald Trump as historically Democrats participate more in early voting.

Early voting in the swing state ends on Saturday afternoon ahead of the election on Tuesday, November 5.

Trump has a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, at noon.

Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent for DailyMail.com

Democrats in Virginia are ready for Donald Trump ‘s arrival for a Saturday rally and have booked dozens of electronic billboards to display poll results showing he trails Kamala Harris by 10 points in the state.

Trump is taking time of from the seven battleground states to campaign in a state where Republican presidential candidates have not won since 2004.

And a poll published a day before his visit showed Harris tightening her grip and extending her lead over Trump to 10 points in the state.

The results of the Roanoke College poll will be shown on billboards along the route Trump’s motorcade is expected to take, according to a source familiar with the plan

‘Democrats have bought up every billboard from the airport to the rally site to rub his nose in it,’ said the source.

Vice President Kamala Harris joked about winning the election in three days after a reporter accidentally referred to her as ‘Madame President.’

She made the quip at the start of a gaggle with traveling reporters and saying ‘the road to the White House definitely runs through Milwaukee.’

When a reporter asked her about her faith, calling her ‘Madame President,’ she responded: ‘Not for three days.’

Harris usually likes to call her self the underdog in the closely contested race.

Bill Maher has made an eleventh-hour plea to undecided voters as he warned the ‘progressive mind virus’ could hold Kamala Harris back from a win.

The comedian outlined the positive impact Biden and the Democrats have had on the economy, including aggressively tackling inflation.

But he admitted so-called Christmas Eve voters were probably seeking more reassurance Harris is not going to go along with ‘every anti-common sense idea that comes out of the woke mind virus’.

‘If she loses, that will be mainly why,’ Maher warned during an episode of his HBO show Real Time on Friday.

He suggested a fear among Dems of admitting things are ‘not that bad’, deemed ‘progressophobia’ is a part of the progressive mind virus and could be hampering their chances.

New Hampshire has barely been mentioned in this presidential race, but a recent bump in Donald Trump’s polling suggests the Republican is reversing his opponent’s comfortable lead and could even flip the state in a dramatic upset on Tuesday.

In Concord, the state capital, GOP organizers have run out of Trump yard signs due to unexpected demand. In Pelham, scores of locals turned out to wave Trump flags, blast out rock anthems and feast on pizza and cookies on Wednesday night.

Down the road, motorists honked horns and stopped to take photos of a home-made yard sign presenting Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, as the goofy ‘Dumb and Dumber’ characters from the 1994 movie.

Republican campaigners in the Granite State describe an eleventh-hour ‘surge’ of enthusiasm for Trump that’s quickly erasing the roughly six percentage-point lead that Harris enjoyed here until recently.

Voters across New Hampshire told DailyMail.com they sensed momentum gathering behind the MAGA icon, and that his promises of a secure southern border and cheaper groceries and housing were resonating.

Cardi B faced with an awkward teleprompter mishap at Kamala Harris’ rally on Friday, and was forced to read her endorsement of the vice president from her phone.

The outspoken rapper was telling the packed crowd in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, that she ‘wasn’t going to vote’ until the Vice-President entered the race against ‘bully’ Trump.

The Grammy-winner then stopped in her tracks when the teleprompter suddenly had technical glitch.

For around a minute she stood on stage wondering how to respond as the audience cheered.

A member of staff then had to frantically run to give her a phone, so should could finish the remarks in the battleground state.

Both candidates held rallies within seven miles of each other last night in the Milwaukee area as part of a fevered final push for votes in swing-state Wisconsin’s largest county.