Aston Villa’s three huge points they need to repair to maintain Project Emery on the rails – and why not ending within the prime 4 this season could be so damaging

When Aston Villa agreed a new contract with Unai Emery last May, it is thought they also included a buyout clause in a deal that made their manager one of the wealthiest in the world.

Emery’s five-year agreement put him on close to £15million per year – the salary bracket usually reserved for clubs like Real Madrid, Paris St Germain and Manchester City.

The buyout clause is thought to be even higher and reflects how much Villa depend on their manager. Selling the best player would be far easier a blow to absorb than the departure of Emery to a rival.

Last spring, Bayern Munich included Emery on their list of potential successors to Thomas Tuchel and Villa moved quickly to make sure there was no chance they could follow up their initial interest.

Two years into his tenure, Project Emery has hit its first bump in the road. The 2-0 defeat at Liverpool marked the first time in Emery’s reign that Villa had suffered four successive defeats.

It was business as usual for Emery this week. Even with most of his squad away on international duty, the Basque was at Bodymoor Heath analysing the recent fixtures against Liverpool and Tottenham and looking back at the 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup, ahead of the Premier League meeting with the Eagles at Villa Park on November 23.

Now comes his most difficult challenge since the early weeks after he replaced Steven Gerrard, with Villa drifting in 15th.

Villa are not playing especially badly. Though not at the level of last season, they are only one point off third place and five behind Manchester City in second. It is about minor tweaks, not major surgery. But without these adjustments, the underlying issues may become a little more serious.

Managing expectations

Emery has lost his way a little when setting targets for the season.

In one sentence, he will say there are seven clubs – the ‘Big Six’ plus Newcastle – who are better-placed than Villa to finish in the European places. In the next sentence, he will say their challenge is to retain their top-four status and he is not at Villa to waste time.

From co-owners Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens to the supporters, to the first-team squad and Emery himself, nobody at Villa would consider finishing eighth a sign of progress, especially if the season ends trophyless yet again.

The goal of Sawiris and Edens is to make Villa a permanent member of the elite. They are not paying Emery the better part of £15m a year to finish eighth. They did not hand huge pay rises to Emi Martinez, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, John McGinn, Leon Bailey, Ollie Watkins or Jhon Duran, or prepare a new deal for Morgan Rogers, to finish the season outside the European spots.

Ambitions such as these bring greater external scrutiny. Villa must accept this, rather than resenting it.

If Villa, with one of the highest wage bills in the country, lose four matches in a row, it is legitimate to ask why.

The uncomfortable truth is that Villa probably need to qualify again for the Champions League to keep moving forwards.

They had to perform a high-wire act in the transfer market last June to avoid a huge points penalty for breaking spending rules and may face a similar issue next summer.

Transfer chief Monchi said in September that the club must not be afraid to sell to generate revenue. Though Emery was happy to let Douglas Luiz join Juventus, Villa are missing his midfield influence, having registered 10 goals and 10 assists in all competitions last term.

If they fail to keep their Champions League spot, expect interest in Duran, Watkins, Konsa, Rogers, Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara – to name six.

The striker conundrum

If Emery puts faith in Watkins over Duran, Duran is unhappy. Do it the other way round and Watkins is fed up. Try to share the love and you risk upsetting both. That is the position in which Emery currently finds himself.

Duran is a puzzle Villa cannot solve. Frustrated at the 20-year-old’s chaotic character, Emery spent the previous two transfer windows doing everything he could to move him on, but no club in Serie A could afford the transfer fee of about £40m and neither Chelsea nor West Ham wanted to pay it.

Villa have now backed the Colombian, handing him a new contract with a huge pay rise, and defended his acts of public petulance – such as kicking a seat in the dugout after he was substituted against Bologna in the Champions League. Emery still does not trust him in the starting XI, though.

The problem is that retaining Duran appears to have unsettled Watkins.

The 28-year-old thrives on knowing he is the main man and, as one of the Premier League’s most prolific scorers since Emery joined Villa, believes he should be the undisputed No1 choice.

Instead, Watkins has been substituted between the 60th and 70th minute six times already this season. Last term that happened only once, in a dead rubber at Crystal Palace on the final day of the campaign. Watkins’ demeanour when he is taken off tells the whole story.

Nobody can question Watkins’ attitude. He spends hours studying his clips with Emery or Rodri, a key member of the coaching staff. He works ferociously on his condition with fitness expert Paddy Moore. He will practise finishing religiously.

Yet the numbers say it is not working. According to Opta, Watkins has converted only four of his 15 big chances this season. Push that ratio up to six or seven and Villa would probably be in the top three.

Watkins has struggled to hit top speed after spending the summer at Euro 2024 effectively wiped out his pre-season. His response between the Palace game and the March international break may define Villa’s season.

Transfer policy

Before Emery arrived, transfer policy was driven by the data-driven scouting department of former sporting director Johan Lange.

Monchi replaced Lange and now the structure is a little different: broadly speaking, Emery identifies the players he likes and Monchi tries to sign them.

Can Emery really do everything, though? Coach the players, decide the tactics, study the opposition, pick the starting XI and also oversee transfer policy? The Basque is undeniably a brilliant coach. A brilliant coach does not always make a brilliant scout.

Signing Rogers and Pau Torres for a combined fee of about £45m shows where it can work. Youri Tielemans has been excellent this season, but on a salary of about £200,000 per week so he should be.

On the other hand, Moussa Diaby came and went inside 12 months, loanees Nicolo Zaniolo and Clement Lenglet were hardly transformative and while this season’s signings deserve time, Ian Maatsen has not yet forced his way into the first-choice XI, Amadou Onana struggles to hold it together for 90 minutes and Ross Barkley has started only twice.

Emery has worked wonders at Villa but he is not superhuman. Monchi is a proven operator in the market over two decades.

In their rush to meet financial rules, Villa’s summer transfer window was chaotic. It cannot be this way all the time.

To fulfil their aims, Villa must be as smart off the pitch under Emery as they have undoubtedly been on it.