Humans could possibly be trapped on Earth as a result of area is operating out of area, say consultants

Humans could be trapped on Earth because space is running out of space, boffins have warned. The rapid rise in satellites and space junk will make low Earth orbit unusable unless rival nations and companies start sharing data needed to navigate it, experts say.

The rocketing risk of collisions, particularly in a band between 500 and 560 miles above Earth, could halt space exploration. That would scupper plans to build a base 240,000 miles away on the Moon, and US billionaire Elon Musk’s bid to have one million humans living on 140m-miles-away Mars by 2050.

More than 14,000 satellites circle the globe in low Earth orbit, according to data from safety analyst Slingshot Aerospace. Alongside those are 120 million pieces of debris from rocket launches, collisions and spacecraft wear-and-tear break-ups of which only a few thousand are large enough to track.

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As of last week, Musk’s Starlink network had 6,764 satellites in orbit between 336 and 354 miles above the planet. It had to conduct nearly 50,000 collision avoidance manoeuvres in the first half of 2024 alone, figures show.

The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, said in 2021 its manoeuvres had increased to three or four-per-craft from a historical average of one. Tens of thousands more satellites are scheduled to be launched over the next few years.

The 500-mile high orbit band contains fewer satellites but 3,114 objects including operational and non-operational payloads, rocket bodies and fragments which make up 20% of the total mass of objects in low Earth orbit posing significant collision risk, LeoLabs data showed.

Around 3,500 dead satellites add to the clutter as they stay in orbit until they fall into, and burn up in, Earth’s atmosphere years later or are flown to a “graveyard orbit” 22,000 miles away.

The jammed zones could block the path of future space missions. A United Nations panel on space traffic coordination said urgent action was needed to combat the problem.

Aarti Holla-Maini, director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, said: “There’s no time to lose on space traffic coordination. With so many objects being launched into space we have to do everything we can to ensure space safety.

“That means facilitating the sharing of information between operators, be they public or private, in order to avoid collisions.”

Experts want space to have enforceable rules like those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic. Holla-Maini said: “The top challenges are speed as consensus-building takes time and trust. Some countries simply can’t communicate with others. But the UN can facilitate this process. Speed is our biggest enemy. But there’s no alternative. It must be done.”

Low Earth orbit must stay safe to prevent costly disruption to the technology behind global communication, navigation and scientific exploration, she said.

The UK space industry is a world leader in pioneering clean-up craft aimed at removing junk. But there is currently no centralised information system all space-faring nations can use, and persuading them to adopt one has proved problematic.

While some countries are willing to share data others fear it will compromise security as satellites often have a dual use including defence capability. Companies are also keen to guard commercial secrets. In the meantime space junk continues to build up.

A Chinese rocket stage that exploded in August added thousands of fragments of debris to low Earth orbit. In June a defunct Russian satellite blew up scattering thousands of shards that forced astronauts on the International Space Station, which is 250 miles high, to take shelter for an hour.

Low Earth orbit is the region most congested with human-made objects as it offers a balance between cost and proximity making it a prime target for the booming commercial space sector.

It has also seen a 17% rise in close approaches per satellite over the past year, Slingshot data showed. The potential cost of collisions is £440million over five years based on an estimated 3.13% annual crash probability.

That works out at £88million a year, according to Canadian monitoring firm NorthStar Earth & Space. Its chief executive officer Stewart Bain said: “We are at a critical point with respect to putting regulations and structure in space to monitor and manage the growing congestion.

“With Starlink launching thousands of satellites per year, China and others preparing to follow, we will soon push the bearing capacity of prime orbits.”

Anirudh Sharma, chief executive officer of Digantara which specialises in space situational awareness, warned the space junk problem would explode with real life Star Wars.

“The potential for conflicts between states has been on a steep rise in the recent past,’’ he said. “If these extend to space it could complicate the outer space environment.

“We urgently need common global rules for coordination.”

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