Arctic’s first ‘ice-free’ day may occur inside three years, warns new examine

A chilling new study has warned the Arctic could see its first ice-free day within just three years. Scientists have predicted the first summer to practically melt all of the Arctic’s sea ice could occur as early as 2027.

The international research team used computer models to predict this alarming event, stating that an ice-free Arctic could “significantly impact” Earth’s ecosystem and climate by altering weather patterns.

Co-author Professor Alexandra Jahn, a climatologist from the University of Colorado, Boulder, in the US, said: “The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically.

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“But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions.”

She also revealed that Arctic sea ice has been disappearing at an “unprecedented” speed of more than 12% each decade due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

In September, the National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported this year’s Arctic sea ice minimum – the day with the least amount of frozen seawater in the Arctic – was one of the lowest on record since 1978. At 1.65 million square miles, or 4.28 million square kilometres, this year’s minimum was above the all-time low observed in September 2012.

The research team has highlighted a “stark decline” in comparison to the average coverage of 6.85 million square kms between 1979 and 1992. Scientists define the Arctic as ice-free when there is less than one million square kms of ice.

Previous predictions about Arctic sea ice have centred on when the ocean will be devoid of ice for an entire month. Prof Jahn’s earlier studies suggested that the first ice-free month could occur by the 2030s.

Dr Céline Heuzé, study co-author from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, stated: “Because the first ice-free day is likely to happen earlier than the first ice-free month, we want to be prepared.

“It’s also important to know what events could lead to the melting of all sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.”

During a recent expedition to the Arctic Ocean, Dr Heuzé and her colleagues observed that the Arctic sea ice is already “very thin”.

Where they would have encountered two metres or more thick ice around the North Pole 20 years ago, this year it was barely one metre on average.

She said: “The sea ice was so thin and ‘rotten’ that it felt like we did not need an ice breaker.

“It was actually very stressful to work in these conditions; with no sea ice to slow down our progression, we barely had time to collect our data and recover by the time we had already reached the next measurement point.”

The team of scientists used over 300 computer simulations to predict the first ice-free day in the Arctic. They found that regardless of changes in human greenhouse gas emissions, most models suggest this could occur within nine to 20 years after 2023.

However, the earliest ice-free day could be as soon as three years from now, according to findings published in Nature Communications. This is considered an “extreme scenario”, but it’s a possibility based on the models.

In total, nine simulations suggested that an ice-free day could occur in three to six years. The team discovered that a series of extreme weather events could melt two million square kms or more of sea ice in a short period of time: a unusually warm autumn first weakens the sea ice, followed by a warm Arctic winter and spring that prevents sea ice from forming.

Professor Jahn, who’s gearing up to share these insights on December 9 at the American Geophysical Union’s big meet-up in Washington DC, stressed: “Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice.”

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