France braces for political and financial chaos with Brexit-bashing Michel Barnier set to be humiliated in no-confidence vote at this time, plunging EU’s second-biggest financial system into turmoil

France‘s government faces no-confidence votes later today that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, plunging the country into uncharted waters of political chaos.

Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier – formerly the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator – will be the first premier to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years at a time when his nation is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

France’s National Assembly is due to debate two no-confidence motions brought by the hard-left and far-right in a standoff with Barnier after he forced through a controversial social security financing bill without a vote.

The far-right National Rally (RN) of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to vote for the motion put forward by the left, creating an unholy alliance to oust Barnier. 

Meanwhile, Macron faces widespread calls to step down with many lawmakers arguing his resignation would serve to reset the political turmoil – but the president has defiantly announced he will not leave office until his term ends in 2027.

‘It so happens that if I am here before you, it is because I was elected twice by the French people,’ Macron declared yesterday during a visit to Saudi Arabia, describing calls for his resignation as ‘political fiction’.

Asked on French television if there was a chance his government could survive Wednesday’s vote, Barnier – described by French political commentators as the ‘unfortunate guinea pig in France’s ungovernable parliament’ – replied: ‘I want this and it is possible.

‘I think it is possible that there is this reflex of responsibility where – beyond political differences, divergences, the normal contradictions in a democracy – we tell ourselves that there is a higher interest.’

Most analysts believe the government is doomed, however.

The turmoil follows a snap election called by Macron in the summer which aimed, without success, to halt the march of the far right and left no party or faction in parliament with a majority.

If Barnier falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

The lifespan of Barnier’s government would also be the shortest of any administration of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.

What’s more, Barnier’s ousting would leave France mired in a lingering political crisis, as no new elections can be called within a year of the previous legislative polls.

Several prominent opposition figures and even some voices closer to the presidential faction have suggested resignation could be Macron’s only viable option to avoid plunging France into chaos. 

His term as president runs until mid-2027 and he cannot be forced out by parliament, but the RN and the hard left have called on him to step down early as he faces his biggest crisis since the Yellow Vest popular unrest of 2018-2019. 

The head of the Socialist party, Olivier Faure, called on Macron to make his intentions clear should the Barnier government fall.

‘Rather than dropping little remarks… Emmanuel Macron now needs to speak to the French people,’ Faure told Le Monde daily in remarks published on Wednesday. 

‘How can he leave the French people in this uncertainty just before Christmas?’  

But Macron was quick to disparage Faure for the comments, telling reporters on the sidelines of his state visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this week: ‘It’s frankly not up to scratch to say these things.’

Macron also accused Le Pen’s RN of ‘unbearable cynicism’ in backing the no-confidence motion.

‘We must not scare people with these things,’ he said.

Since assuming the premiership in September, Barnier has prioritised sorting the country’s disastrous finances.

Following years of extravagant spending, France’s deficit now stands at over six per cent of the entire economy which is twice as much as the limit imposed by the EU. 

Barnier and the French Parliament have been at loggerheads for weeks as he attempted to pass his proposed budget that includes 60 billion euros in tax hikes and spending cuts. 

The no-confidence vote comes after the Prime Minister, disgruntled by weeks of fruitless political wrangling, pushed through a controversial new social security budget and bypassed parliament using a presidential decree.

This is perfectly legal under Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, but the move has been viewed as an attack on democracy.

Now, investors are concerned that if Barnier is ousted in a no-confidence vote, his efforts to cut borrowing will be jettisoned, leaving France at risk of an economic crisis.

If that happens, economists are concerned about a knock-on effect spreading to other Eurozone countries.

The collapse of the French government will also leave a hole at the heart of the European Union at a time when Germany is also weakened and in election mode, just weeks ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump re-entering the White House. 

‘We are in a critical moment for France,’ Macron’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau Retailleau told TF1 yesterday. 

‘We risk chaos, we risk a financial crisis’ similar to the ‘public debt crisis in Greece in 2008’.

Mr Retailleau continued: ‘It is not those who are rich who are the first to be impacted, it is the most modest, the most fragile.’

Barnier says the consequences of voting him out will be catastrophic for state finances, but RN lawmaker Laure Lavalette told TF1: ‘There is no reason for this to lead to major chaos. Don’t play with fears… it’s not all going to crumble.’ 

Should Barnier be ousted, Macron faces a tough choice with candidates for the hot seat as premier few and far between.

Loyalist Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Macron’s centrist ally Francois Bayrou are seen as possible contenders, but they could not be appointed until 2025.

Therefore, Macron could well ask Barnier to stay on in a caretaker role as he seeks a new prime minister. 

Some observers have suggested that Le Pen, 56, is seeking to bring down Macron before his term ends by ousting Barnier.

Le Pen is embroiled in a high-profile embezzlement trial. 

If found guilty in March, she could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election.

She has insisted, however, that the standoff is entirely about a budget that she said would make the French poorer.

By following the ‘catastrophic continuity of Emmanuel Macron’, the prime minister ‘could only fail’, she wrote on social media.