Will we get a white Christmas? Met Office reveals its climate forecast for the festive season – and if we’ll get any snow
The Met Office has confirmed Britain is not expected to have a widespread white Christmas – with December 25 set to bring mild temperatures and calm conditions.
Forecasters said Christmas Day is ‘likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority’, although it could be wet and windy in North West Scotland.
The weather service added that temperatures are expected to be ‘widely mild’, with high pressure building in from Christmas Eve to bring a period of settled weather.
Its deputy chief meteorologist Dan Harris said: ‘If you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed.’
Bookmaker Ladbrokes said yesterday that Edinburgh remains the most likely city in the UK to have a white Christmas at 5/4, with Newcastle close behind at 7/4, while London is at 7/1. It is 4/6 for snow to fall anywhere in the country on Christmas Day.
The Met Office says an official white Christmas in the UK simply needs an observer or an automatic weather station to report a single snowflake falling on December 25.
Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5 per cent of the station network record snow falling on Christmas Day. A widespread covering of snow on the ground is defined where more than 40 per cent of stations reported this at 9am.
This has only happened four times since 1960 – in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.
Leadhills in South Lanarkshire on Boxing Day 2022, when a snow and ice warning was issued
A woman walks her dog through the snow at Castleside in County Durham on Boxing Day 2021
Snow covers houses in the Northumberland town of Hexham on Christmas Day 2020
Snow covered fields near Cheltenham are seen from Queens Wood on Boxing Day 2010
Unsettled weather is expected over the coming days ahead of Christmas, with two Met Office wind warnings in place earlier today as the UK was hit by 65mph gusts.
These strong winds in northern parts will ease quickly, but will be followed by further rain across England and Wales during this afternoon and into evening.
Central and southern England are likely to see the most rainfall – and it will also turn colder in the north and west, with blustery showers turning wintry over high ground.
Parts of Britain will also experience very mild weather for the time of year today, with highs of up to 15C (59F) expected in South East England. The temperature in Cardiff was 14C (57F) at 7am this morning.
This is above Rome, Barcelona and Nice which will all get up 13C (55F) today, and Madrid at 9C (48F).
Temperatures in the UK will then drop again tomorrow with maximums of 9C (48F) on the way – and again on Friday.
Many inland areas will see a cold, but sunny day tomorrow, with temperatures feeling chilly thanks to a brisk north-westerly breeze.
The Met Office said ‘frequent showers, which may be wintry at times, are likely in central and northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and western parts of England’.
A widespread frost is possible on Friday morning, with some rain driving south eastwards through the day and some showers in the south West.
A brief window of settled weather for many overnight Friday into Saturday will be quickly pushed aside, as an area of low pressure tracks to the north of the UK bringing wet and widely windy weather.
A wind warning has been issued for 80mph gusts in northern and western Scotland for Saturday from 7am until 9pm.
Mr Harris said: ‘A deep area of low pressure is expected to pass to the north of Scotland on Saturday, heading towards southwest Norway.
‘Yellow wind warnings are currently in place across northern and western parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, where there’s a small chance of gusts in excess of 80mph across parts of the Hebrides, Orkney, and parts of the north and west Scottish mainland coast.’
He said delays or cancellations to sea and air transport are possible, adding: ‘More generally however, gusts of 60 to 75mph are likely and when coinciding with daytime travel in the busier pre-Christmas period, may cause some travel disruption.’
SATURDAY: A wind warning has been issued for northern and western Scotland for Saturday
Waves crash into the harbour wall and lighthouse at Newhaven in East Sussex today
Rain will also move in on Saturday, with the highest amounts in the North West, then frequent heavy showers ‘which will turn increasingly wintry on higher ground later’.
Six top tips for travel this Christmas
By NICKY KELVIN
Christmas is a magical time for travel, filled with festive cheer and the excitement of visiting loved ones or exploring new destinations.
However, it’s also one of the busiest travel periods of the year, which can lead to increased costs, potential delays, and a higher chance of travel disruptions.
Here’s some advice to help navigate the challenges of busy travel periods and make your Christmas travel experience smoother:
- Factor in Disruptions: Winter weather can impact travel, causing flight delays and train cancellations. Be prepared for the possibility of disruptions and have backup plans in place. Check the weather forecast regularly and sign up for travel alerts from your airline or train operator.
- Stay Informed: Stay up-to-date on potential train strikes or other industrial action that could affect your travel plans. Check the websites of rail operators and news outlets for the latest information.
- Explore Alternatives: If strikes are planned, research alternative transportation options such as buses, car rentals, or even ride-sharing services. Be aware that these alternatives may also experience increased demand during peak travel times.
- Allow Extra Time: Whether you’re travelling by air or rail, allow extra time for check-in, security, and boarding. Busy travel periods often mean longer queues and potential delays.
- Check Your Rights: Familiarise yourself with your passenger rights in case of delays or cancellations. Airlines and train operators have specific policies regarding compensation and rebooking options.
- Pack Smart: Pack light to avoid checked baggage fees and streamline your journey through busy airports or train stations. Plus, airport and train station prices for food and beverages can be inflated. Consider packing your own snacks and drinks to save money. Also make sure to bring some form of entertainment – such as a book – to keep you occupied during potential delays.
NICKY KELVIN is editor at The Points Guy. For more of his tips, click here
The Met Office also said: ‘A covering of snow is possible for some hills and mountains as far south as the Peak District by Sunday morning.’
Sunday will bring a mixture of sunny intervals, blustery showers and longer spells of rain in the North.
The forecast continued: ‘Showers will be most frequent and heavy in northern and western areas, falling as a wintry mix of sleet and snow for some. Gales are expected in exposed parts of the north and west, with windchill making temperatures feel rather cool.’
Another frontal system will then move in on Monday through from the west, bringing further wind and rain.
High pressure then builds in from Christmas Eve, bringing more settled weather for the festive period.
Mr Harris continued: ‘With Christmas still seven days away, we cannot yet be confident about the regional scale details, however the broad trends in the forecast come with higher than usual confidence for this lead time.
‘Current indications are that more settled conditions are likely to develop from Christmas Eve onwards, with the majority of the UK coming under the influence of high pressure. The exception however may be northwest Scotland where there is a reasonable chance of further wind and rain.
‘Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority. Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance of further rain across northwest Scotland.
‘Temperatures are expected to be widely mild, so if you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed. We’ll be giving more details as we get closer to the day, so do keep up-to-date with the latest Met Office forecast.’
Meanwhile the Environment Agency has 23 flood alerts in place for England, while the Scottish Environment Protection Agency imposed seven alerts and five warnings.
The top recorded wind gust across the UK this morning was 65mph at St Catherine’s Point on the Isle of Wight, followed by 55mph at Pembrey Sands in Carmarthenshire and 50mph in Plymouth, Devon. Rhyl in North Wales had a gust of 49mph.
And the strong winds led to the closure of the M48 Severn Bridge in both directions this morning with traffic being diverted via the M4 Prince of Wales Bridge.
The Humber Bridge, which links Yorkshire and Lincolnshire on the A15, was also closed to high-sided vehicles and caravans, with all other users subject to a 30mph speed restriction.
ScotRail said severe weather meant trains had to run at a reduced speed between Glasgow Queen Street and Mallaig due to a speed restriction on the route.
And Transport for Wales warned that a tree blocking the line between Llandrindod and Knighton was delaying trains running between Shrewsbury and Llanelli.
It comes as drivers are being urged not to travel on major routes for six hours on both Friday and Saturday to avoid the worst Christmas holiday traffic.
The RAC and transport analytics company Inrix said roads are likely to be busiest between 1pm and 7pm on those days.
Hotspots where queues are expected include the M3 between its junction with the M25 and the south coast, the M25 anticlockwise between its junctions with the M1 and the M23, and the M53 from Chester to Liverpool.
The RAC said it commissioned a survey of 2,100 UK adults which suggested 3.0 million leisure trips by car are planned for Friday, rising to 3.7 million for Saturday.
Getaway traffic is expected to peak on Christmas Eve, with 3.8 million journeys.
An estimated total of 29.3 million festive journeys will be made between Wednesday and Christmas Eve, which is the most since the RAC began recording the data in 2013.
National Highways said more than 95 per cent of roadworks on its network of England’s motorways and major A roads will be lifted from 6am on Friday and will not be reinstated until January 2.
This includes 45 miles of roadworks on the M1, which were put in place while additional emergency smart motorway stopping areas were installed.
Rail engineering work will lead to more pressure on the roads with several lines closed.
London Liverpool Street station will be closed from Christmas Day until January 2, and no trains will call at London Paddington between Friday December 27 and Sunday December 29.
There will be no direct services between Crewe and Liverpool – and a reduced service between Crewe and Manchester – from Saturday December 28 until Friday January 3.
Services in the Cambridge area will be disrupted between Friday December 27 and Sunday January 5, and no trains will run between Harpenden and London from Saturday December 21 to Sunday December 29.
There are also fears that staffing shortages at train operators will cause disruption.
The latest warnings come as many communities recover from the devastating effects of Storm Darragh earlier this month.
The fourth named storm of the season saw millions told to stay indoors, tens of thousands left without power and trains axed.
